After the British backed the Brexit option at the start of the summer, U.S. voters in turn confounded forecasters by choosing Donald Trump as their next president in early November. Most observers initially expected that scenario to trigger a big surge in concern that would hurt risky assets. In the end, the surge in anxiety lasted just a few hours on the evening of the election, and investors quickly focused on the fact that the president-elect’s campaign promises could result in stronger growth and higher inflation in the United States. The outcome was a quick jump in stock markets, bond yields and the U.S. dollar. Investors must now ask themselves whether these moves are justified and if recent market trends will continue.

Although the dust has settled a bit after the election, we must first recognize that much uncertainty remains about what policies the future Trump administration will actually implement. The president-elect is still in the process of putting together his team and only takes power on January 20. He seems determined to quickly announce a series of measures, but it could take several months before they start to impact the economy. There is however some consensus among elected Republicans on…

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