When production does finally collapse, that will set up the “nobody saw this coming” ramp in the price of oil.
In May 2008 I proposed the Oil “Head-Fake” Scenario in which global recession pushes oil demand down as oil exporters pump their maximum production in a futile attempt to fund their vast welfare states and thus retain their precarious political power.
Oil: One Last Head-Fake? (May 9, 2008)
The terrible irony of the head-fake, of course, is that the exporters’ efforts to pump more oil exacerbates the oversupply, further depressing prices.