The Bottom Line: Rally

Posted by Don Vialoux - Timing the Market

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Don Vialoux spoke in detail to Michael Campbell on Money Talks this Saturday about the rally about to take off and the different sectors, including the TSE: 300 that are highly likely to outperform. You can listen to the entire interview here beginning at the 3:56 mark: {mp3}mtdec14hourfp2{/mp3} in which Don talks about a Key Juncture occuring in Mining Stocks. 

Don’s Monday Report complete with 45 Charts & commentary below:

The Bottom Line:

Barring an unexpected event coming from the FOMC meeting, the stage is set for a typical year end Christmas rally trade. Economic sectors respond strongest during this period, (Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Financials). Preferred strategy is to continue to hold markets and sectors that benefit from seasonal strength at this time of year.

Equity Trends

The TSX Composite Index dropped 155.02 points (1.17%) last week. Trend remains neutral (Score: 0.5). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: 0.0) and fell below their 50 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative (Score: 0.0), but note early signs of turning positive. ‘Tis the season from the second week in December to the second week in March for the TSX Composite to outperform the S&P 500 Index! Technical score remains at 0.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The S&P 500 Index fell 29.77 points (1.65%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. However, short term trend changed to down on a break below 1,779.09. The Index fell below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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….continue reading Don’s analysis of sectors and stocks HERE

Economic News This Week

December Empire Index to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Monday is expected to improve to 5.0 from -2.2 in November.

November Industrial Production to be released at 9:15 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% in October. November Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 78.4% from 78.1% in October.

November Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in October. Excluding food and energy, November Consumer Prices are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in October.

Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase from 891,000 in August to 900,000 in September to 920,000 in October and 950,000 in November.

Decision from the FOMC meeting is expected to be released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to fall to 333,000 from 368,000 last week.

November Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to slip to 5,000,000 units from 5.120,000 units in October.

December Philadelphia Fed to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday is expected to slip to 5.0 from 6.5 in November.

November Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.6% versus a gain of 0.2% in October

Third estimate of third quarter real GDP to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to remain unchanged from the second quarter estimate of 3.6%.

Canadian November Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus a loss of 0.1% in October.

Canadian October Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 1.0% in September.

….continue reading Don’s analysis of sectors and stocks HERE