Downside risk in equity markets and most sectors exceed short term upside potential. Short term weakness will provide an opportunity to enter into seasonal plays this spring including Energy, Mines and Metals, Chemicals and the Auto sector. Energy already is showing encouraging signs of seasonal strength.

The TSX Composite Index slipped 81.95 points (0.64%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 11,420.78. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains slightly positive.

The S&P 500 Index added 3.89 points (0.28%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Index remains within a rising wedge pattern and well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing signs of rolling over. However, short term momentum indicators are not significant as long as the Index remains in the rising wedge pattern.

The U.S. Dollar added 1.18 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels.

Crude oil slipped $2.78 per barrel (2.54%) last week (including a spike on Thursday to $110.55). Intermediate trend is up. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. ‘Tis the season for crude oil prices to move higher!

Gold plunged $62.30 per ounce (3.51%) including a Leibovit volume reversal on Thursday. Support is at 1,523.90 and resistance is at 1,804.40. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from an overbought level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index no longer is positive.

Silver dropped $0.48 per ounce (1.35%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up despite a Leibovit negative volume reversal on Thursday. Silver remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Strength relative to gold remains positive. Seasonal influences remain positive.

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