Stock Market Seasonal Patterns Spell Caution

Posted by Mark Leibovit - VR Trader

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Seasonal patterns generally call for strength into April/May, but these same patterns also call for a potential downtrend into the Fall. The real question is that with so much time between now and April/May can the market push to new highs, despite the negative signal flashed by the January Barometer. With the Nasdaq now virtually back to new highs, I cannot dismiss that possibility. Janet Yellen’s testimony before the U.S. Senate is apparently delayed today due to weather, so the bulls have less to hang their hat on. Even though I remain dubious about 2014 being a bull market year, I’m not shorting this market until there is a renewed sign of a downturn and have focused my attention (as always) on individual trades and sectors. Recall I’ve been writing about this for over a year now that 2013 or early 2014 could end the bull market. If we take out recent lows in the SPX, downside potential is first 1680, 1627 and possibly 1480.

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