“I wake up in the middle of the night staring at the ceiling with my eyes as big as saucers wondering what is going to happen to our Country.” – Stephen Todd – Todd Market Forecast
Michael Campbell interviewed the remarkable Stephen Todd on Money Talks May 2nd 2015. With that statement above its probably a good idea for anyone with investments in major markets that Stephen covers to read the brief below or listen to the entire 17 minute interview HERE
Of all the markets Stephen covers, Stocks, Gold, Silver Copper, Oil, Currencies and Bonds, Stephen thinks that the most dangerous market in the world today is the Bond Market.
BONDS
“I am very worried about our future because we have a very proliferate Government in the US that has gone from 8 Trillion in debt to 18 Trillion in debt during the Obama administration. He has put more debt on than all of the Presidents going back to George Washington.”
“A lot of people are putting money into the Bond Market, thinking mistakenly in my opinion, that it is safe. there is nothing safe about it.” “There is definitely Market risk, You are making a couple of % in interest on your money but that is going to be much protection if the Bond Market drops 10 or 12 %. “We have been doing this for 30 years now and things are getting a little tougher, so it would to be surprising to me to see a Major Bear Market start.”
Stephen is very thankful that the Federal Reserve has quit adding to its balance sheet because “to me its just a worthless policy. Its harmful as a matter of fact. It’s been great for the 1%, but for the middle class its been terrible.” Stephen points out that since Obama has been President, the average middle class family income has dropped from $56,000 per to $51,000.
Given our “proliferate” Government the ability to borrow at low rates, that move in the Federal Debt “from 8 Trillion to 18 Trillion over the past 6 years is going to become a major problem when interest rates normalize, and the Government has to refinance at higher rates.”
CURRENCIES
“The Dollar looks like it has run it course here.”
One of the major bull markets that has been raging the last 9 months is the US Dollar. Given the Dollar’s effect on virtually every transaction in the world today, Stephen makes a remarkable statement:
“I am going to stick my neck out and say that the Dollar has entered a Bear Market.”
STOCKS
We are entering very powerful seasonal tendencies as we are coming into “the bad 6 months of the Dow”. “I think we have some rough seas ahead of us.”
“If you go back to 1950 the good 6 months, and this is amazing, has gained a little over 17,000 points. During this time when the stock market has gone up, the bad six months has lost 83 points.”
The good six months goes from the last day of October to the last day of April.
We also have the prospect of some impending negative factors like Fed tightening and we are starting to see some negative earnings comparisons. Put all that together and “I don’t really see a lot of upside for the markets over the next six months.”
GOLD
Gold has been very choppy right along with the Stock Market, but think we are getting close to a significant bottom here.
Over the past 3 1/2 years Gold is down 40%. In Stock Market terms that would be a very significant Bear Market, and Bear Markets do come to an end.
“Of all of the problems on the horizon I see, I think Gold might have some upside.” “Not maybe as much as it had before because if interest rates are going up that will retard Gold to some degree.”
“I think that with the problems in the world economy and the Stock Market may make Gold a good place to be in the not to distant future.”
OIL
“I am very bearish on Oil. We have had a normal countertrend bounce in my opinion, but I am so impressed with this Fracking Technology. If we go into a slowing economy Worldwide, we will be using less Oil and we have a lot more ability to take it out of the ground.”
“I think Oil is in a long term Bear Market.”
……listen to the entire 17 minute interview HERE
