September 5, 2017 with the 10-year yield at 2.04%, was an excellent time to short 10-year treasuries. The number of speculative net short contracts was only 62,634. 

On January 2, the speculative net short position rose to 292,210 contracts with the yield up to 2.45%.

On April 17, at a yield of 2.88%, there were 543,822 net short contracts.

On July 24, with the yield barely rising to 2.97%, there were 698,504 net shorts contracts. That’s an increase of 154,682 with the yield essentially moving sideways. 

Larger Picture

The above just describes changes in net positioning. It’s highly likely some of those who shorted early on have taken profits while others added to shorts and still others took positions for the first time. 

The number of short contracts is a whopping 1,557,271 contracts. 

The number of long speculative contracts is 858,767 so there may be a pile of hurting longs ready to throw in the towel on a move higher in yields as well. I suppose it would be fitting if one final blast higher in yields shook out the longs right before a reversal.

Congrats to those who shorted early and got out. 

It’s the short latecomers and those pressing shorts after this rally in yields that will eventually blow up. Some longs may also be on the edge right now. 

Mike “Mish” Shedlock