Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

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The Problem in any Post Bubble Contraction.


“Indian Industrial Production Unexpectedly Fell in September” – Bloomberg, November 12

“Economic output in the Eurozone fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter, following a 0.2 percent drop in the second quarter.”– Reuters, November 15

“China’s vehicle sales fell for the sixth straight month in October.” – Bloomberg, November 14

“Investment Falls Off a Cliff”– Wall Street Journal, November 18

This story included that U.S. companies were cutting spending plans because of “fiscal and economic uncertainty”.

Then there are two gems that really mark growing uncertainty:

“Krugman: Bring Back the 91% Tax Rate” – The New York Times, November 18

“Treasury Secretary Geithner: Lift Debt Limit to Infinity”– CNS News, November 19

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Harvesting headlines is usually interesting and sometimes riveting. The first ones indicate a slowing global economy – despite unprecedented stimulation, corporate bailouts and “fixing” of any number of countries.

The problem in any post-bubble contraction is that in the mania debt was eagerly expanded to an amount that can’t be serviced even by a strong economy. The debt burden seems to be the main reason that post-bubble recessions are severe and recoveries are weak.

The last two headlines suggest that the establishment is discovering that massive intervention is not prompting a strong business expansion. The proposed remedies of higher tax rates and unconstrained issuance of treasury debt indicate that confiscation of wealth and earnings is changing from a hidden to an open agenda.

Intellectually pathetic and fiscally tragic.


The fall decline took base metal prices (GYX) from a nice high of 406 on September 14th to 359 on November 9th. Our November 8th piece was looking for a “natural” rebound. There is overhead resistance at the 380 level.

Agricultural prices (GKX) have been in a stair-step decline since all of the excitement peaked in July. The RSI reached the highest levels since the cyclical top at 570 in early 2011. Last week’s low at 463 extended the downtrend, but a rebound into January seems likely.

Crude oil slipped to a modest oversold condition and can trade in a narrow range into January.

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Through the winter months it’s worthwhile to keep a bird feeder. One kind that is almost problem-free is one set up for husked peanuts, which only attracts the birds that like what the Southerners call “goober peas”. With a multi-grain feed, visitors scatter the seeds that they don’t like and that is messy.

My office has a lot of window and the feeder hangs from a cord attached to the house and to a tall post at the fence with the climbing hydrangea. The problem this season has been a new and persistent squirrel in the neighborhood. And the weather has yet to get cold.

A couple of plastic pie plates were drilled and the cord passed through such that they provide a barrier – that rotates. On the first few attempts the squirrel suffered a sudden instruction in the forces of gravity. Then with determination and practice was able to get to the feeder.

So, I switched the critical plate such that the rim faced the other way, but he was still able to get over it.

It needed something with a greater diameter, which the old camping equipment did not have.Fortunately, the record collection has some of the old twelve-inch 78s. This looked good as they already have the right-sized hole for the cord and now one is mounted. It is a recording of an indifferent Tchaikovsky, so it won’t be missed and it may be effective in its new role.

It will be interesting to see how it works.

Link to November 23rd ‘Bob and Phil Show’ on





The following is part of Pivotal Events that was

published for our subscribers November 22, 2012.