Seeing clearly…this would be an interesting place for a bounce…

Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

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“There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

                                                                                          William Shakespeare, Hamlet

Commentary & Analysis

Seeing clearly…this would be an interesting place for a bounce…

What do I see here in the light of day? 

  1. Global debt continues to rise and has reached levels once deemed dangerous
  2. Major economies are far from balanced: The G-4 (US, Japan, Germany, China)
  3. Global deflation is intensifying
  4. There are abundant supplies of oil
  5. Central banks are low on ammunition and ideas
  6. Davos and global elites in disbelief the serfs are no longer lapping up their political choices
  7. The fourth estate (media) power to shape events increasingly suspect
  8. Desire for tribe is more powerful than multicultural dreams and borders
  9. There is more to a business cycle than technology for technologies sake

I think I saw all of the above when stocks were climbing higher. 

There is an old Sufi tale about a mullah (Nasruddin) who was discovered by a passer-by searching in the dust outside his house. What was he looking for, the stranger enquired. A key, said the mullah. Where did he drop it? “In the house” replied the mullah. Then why was he looking in the dust outside? Because here he was in bright sunlight, whereas in the house it was dark and difficult to see.

                     Taken from Way of the Dollar, John Percival

It would be a nice place for a bounce…three charts below:

 USD/CAD Daily:  The currency acted well today on news the Bank of Canada is to leave rates unchangedand adding the economy isn’t doing that badly. “The Bank now expects the economy’s return to above-potential growth to be delayed until the second quarter of 2016. The protracted process of reorientation towards non-resource activity is underway, helped by stronger U.S. demand, the lower Canadian dollar, and accommodative monetary and financial conditions.  National employment remains resilient despite job losses in the resource sector and household spending continues to expand.”

Click here to view the PDF version with much larger charts

Key resistance at 1.4700…and an extension number to boot…


Copper Weekly: Coming into a long held extension target….1.9162-1.9104…

Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 1.40.23 PM

S&P 500 Index Daily:  Key support tested…possible washout selling…

Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 1.41.44 PM

Incisive analysis it is not; but maybe something to think about.  

Jack Crooks

President, Black Swan Capital