The S&P 500 is only 2% away from making a new, all-time high, and its PE ratio today of 19.3 (according to Bloomberg) is about 15% above its 55-yr average. The Fed has been taking extraordinary measures to ensure that the economy has plenty of liquidity, and has targeted extremely low short-term interest rates for over 7 years. Taking these facts into consideration, you could be forgiven for thinking that super-easy monetary policy and low interest rates have created another bubble in the price of risk assets.
There is no shortage of pundits, economists, and investors who are worried that the Fed has blown an asset-price bubble that is ready to pop. I’m among the minority who have been arguing—for many years—that this is the wrong way to look at things. I don’t see the Fed as the aggressor; I think the Fed is more a follower. The Fed hasn’t driven yields to absurdly low levels, the Fed has merely responded to a market that has been deeply risk averse and generally pessimistic
Larry Edelson say’s it’s a topic that no one likes to talk about. Yet I’ve studied the history and cycles of war in detail, and I do not like what I see happening now in the least bit.