History confirms when when this happens prices that when up will come down. “See California, Florida, Japan, Dubai, Greece, Ireland, Spain et al”
VANCOUVER average single family detached prices in July 2013 ticked down 0.1% M/M and remain 13.6% ($144,300) below their peak set last April 2012 (Vancouver Chart). Vancouver combined residential prices are down 2.3% Y/Y (Scorecard) on booming sales up 40.5% Y/Y. Average strata units continue to trade at 3Q 2007 prices which drifted lower M/M on bullish sales. Prime location inventory remains static (see the Bubble Deflator)
If you are thinking of buying a Vancouver Condo as an Investment, see my Vancouver Condo Yield Case Study and now that you have the July data, where do you think Vancouver SFD prices will be one year hence? VOTE HERE.
CALGARY average detached house prices in July 2013 met with resistance and ticked down 0.4% M/M after the June peak (Calgary Chart) while townhouse prices dropped 4.1% M/M and condo prices ticked up 0.3% M/M. Combined residential sales slumped M/M but remain elevated Y/Y especially in the condo sector and with red ink all over the inventory levels (Scorecard) as migrant workers and flood victims compete for housing. Alberta remains a different country with respect to earnings that continue break record highs per capita.
The sentiment in Calgary is the least bearish of the 3 markets polled with only 22% of the survey thinking Calgary SFD prices will be 20% lower in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
EDMONTON average detached house prices in July 2013 continue to be held back at resistance (Canada Chart), while townhouse and condo prices dropped 2.5% and 7.4% M/M. While Calgary has negative combined M/M residential sales, Edmonton sales remain in an uptrend (Scorecard). But bidders have yet to break the May 2007 peak SFD price (Plunge-O-Meter) which remains 3.7% below the high.
TORONTO average detached house prices for the GTA in July 2013 dropped 3.2% M/M and are 4.8% below the trifecta breakout highs set in May (Toronto Chart). Combined residential sales are off 5.7% M/M with average SFD sales plunging 9.2% M/M. The gap between Vancouver and Toronto housing prices (Vancouver vs Toronto) widened to 43% more expensive in Vancouver. The GTA may have appeal to the HNWI as a “safe” haven but the media does not rate Toronto as investment grade.
Polled sentiment here continues to suggest that prices will be down another 20% in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
OTTAWA average detached house prices are not available, instead the chart on this site reflects Ottawa’s average combined residential prices. OREB’s report is sparse and opaque and the CMHC, records for Ottawa inventory remain one month lagging. In July 2013 Ottawa combined residential prices ticked up 0.1% M/M but remain 3.2% below the peak price set in April (Scorecard). Sales plunged 16% M/M and are down 2% Y/Y.
MONTREAL median (not average) detached house prices in July 2013 ticked down 0.7% M/M and are that much below the record high set in May-June (Canada Chart). Prices are being held back by ever decreasing sales and thinning participants with combined residential sales down 20% M/M and 3% Y/Y. Condo sales plunged 24.4% M/M and are down 13.9% Y/Y (Scorecard). In the 2011 Census, Montreal added 6.4% more dwelling units while only adding 5.2% more people. There is no shortage of housing, but there is a shortage of earnings; the Province of Quebec ranks 6th in Canada’s 10 provinces for earnings and printed an unemployment rate of 7.7% in May (0.4% above Ontario’s).
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