IT’S A HARDY perennial for anyone studying the gold market, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. And with the British summer being more like November this year, very hardy perennials are just what is needed.
But will the Gold Price blossom on schedule?
Greener than George Monbiot’s socks, we’re happy to recycle this fact yet again. The Gold Price tends to display a seasonal pattern – rising in spring, slipping or flat-lining in summer, only to rise once more in the fall and then winter.
For Dollar investors, Buying Gold even at the highest price in July or August has only failed three time to deliver a gain by year’s-end since this bull market began in 2001 (extending a pattern we noted in 2010. Lehman’s collapse threw 2008 out of sync). Indeed, buying gold regardless of price in July or August has paid off 20 times in the last 44 years all told – and delivered an average 5.1% profit even with the losses included.
Now, this is hardly the way to time a serious move into gold. Buying regardless of price? Just because history says the summer average rewards it by year’s end?
Viewed as crisis insurance, however, gold comes at a cost – your premium being the price you pay when you take out your policy. Sensible home economics says you should look for best value. Only here, cutting your premiums needn’t void your insurance.
The Gold Price could well go cheaper from here. But if it doesn’t, and people scramble once more for the security, liquidity and diversification only a lump of rare yellow metal can bring, then the current lull could be offering insurance at summer sale prices.
To date, this summer’s lull is looking utterly typical so far.
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Adrian Ash runs the research desk at BullionVault, the physical gold and silver market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London’s top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and is now a regular contributor to many leading analysis sites includingForbes and a regular guest on BBC national and international radio and television news. Adrian’s views on the gold market have been sought by the Financial Times and Economist magazine in London; CNBC, Bloomberg and TheStreet.com in New York; Germany’s Der Stern andFT Deutschland; Italy’s Il Sole 24 Ore, and many other respected finance publications.