Markets anticipate a Biden victory. Y’day stocks rose on expectations a clear result will ultimately generate wider stimulus, improve the US government’s Pandemic response and bring predictability back to US policy. The polls say Biden will win a comfortable national majority (which counts for zero), and the all-important electoral college majority. Polls are split on the Senate races, but if Biden wins States he’ll likely take their coin-toss senate seats in his wake.
But, the next few days are likely to be tense. The VIX has slipped slightly from 40 on Friday – a clear “Danger, Danger Will Robinson” moment, but a high reading remains a warning of how volatile markets believe the post-election markets could go. If polls are wrong and we get a shock result… hold on tight.
How messy might it be? Compare and contrast the candidates yesterday. Trump hammered on about electoral fraud, how “bad things happen in Philadelphia”, a “stolen election” and is already resorting to the courts. Biden is calling for national unity. Trump has already set the narrative and it staggers me to read things like.. “Trump can only lose if there is massive electoral fraud.” Or one email I got: “Trump will only lose PA if it is stolen from him in Philly and in ballot counting.” Democrats are warning about the dangers of polling stations being intimidated by right wing militias, and ballot stuffing.