Monday Charts: The Positive Side to All the Negative Thinking

Posted by Louis Basenese via Wall St. Journal

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The bull market deniers have been out in full force lately.

From Pimco’s Bill Gross, who swears that “all asset prices are bubbly,” to billionaire Jim Rogers, who keeps urging caution because “the big, big rally in the U.S. stock market” isn’t based on reality.

Those are just two notable examples. Rest assured, countless others exist. Don’t just take my word for it, either…

In a recent note to investors, Bespoke Investment Group said, “There’s been so much ‘bubble’ talk lately that our heads are spinning.”

So true! But I’ll take it by the truckload. Why? Because the more negativity that’s swirling around – and the more pundits that are warning about a top – the more likely it is that we’re nowhere even close.

In other words, their sentiment is a contrarian indicator.

That’s a fact of investing Sir John Templeton validated long ago, when he said (emphasis mine), “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

Newsflash: We’re clearly in the “growing” phase, not the “dying” phase.
If you want concrete proof, look no further than the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey:

…..go HERE to view the Chart & read more/

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