Mixing politics and investing has a very bad reputation

Posted by Joe Weisenthal

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Mixing politics and investing has a very bad reputation. Go online and you’ll find dozens and dozens of articles about how when you participate in the market, you should leave your politics at the door, or ignore politics altogether.

But if instead of warning about the mixture of politics and investing, it would be better to warn about mixing partisanship and investing. In other words, not liking Obama would have been a terrible reason to stay out of the market. Same for Trump. Same for Biden. But as we’re already seeing, politics itself is incredibly important.

Here’s a chart of Signature Bank — heavily exposed to the fortunes of NYC — which has been looking for financial support out of Washington D.C. Under Trump that was unlikely to be forthcoming. After Biden won, the stock immediately exploded higher. It then took another big leg higher starting in early January right after Democrats won both of the Georgia runoff elections.

In general, there’s been a big change of stock market leadership since the election. Banks and energy companies have surged with the prospects of more stimulus. Growth companies have flagged. Interest rates have gathered upside steam, especially since the Georgia runoff cleared the way for more spending and faster growth. In a note, Goldman’s top commodity strategist Jeff Currie maintained his bullish call on the asset class, citing environmental policies and increased demand through income redistribution. (Households with lower incomes tend to spend more, therefore income redistribution is growth positive.)

So much of what’s thriving or slumping at any given time is a political choice, including whether we break out of this long, 40-year downtrend in interest rates. So ignore all that stuff about ignoring politics. It’s worth paying attention to. It’s partisanship and preferences that may be detrimental to good analysis.