
The Top of the Market bell ringing has begun in Vancouver but is not heard in Calgary or Toronto.
VANCOUVER average single family detached prices in May 2013 ticked up 0.4% M/M but remain 13.9% ($147,600) below their peak set last April 2012 (Vancouver Chart). On an annual basis, Vancouver is on a choppy sea of red (Scorecard) with combined residential prices down 4.3% Y/Y and detached housing taking most of the hit. Average strata units, for the commoners, continue to trade at 2007 prices but up in the penthouses it’s zenga zenga and who knows, maybe bunga bunga as a $25,000,000 condo sale get’s printed up in all the media as the biggest Canadian MLS condo sale on record, eg: CBC
Now that you have the May data, where do you think Vancouver SFD prices will be one year hence? VOTE HERE.
CALGARY average detached house and condo prices in May 2013 broke out again to new record highs (Calgary Chart) with townhouses not far behind. I have added the TSX Energy Index plot to the chart to see when correlations occur with housing prices, so far the correlation has been negative for the last 2 years. Although there is pricing joy in Calgary, it’s not showing up on the Momentum Chart. What is showing up is a different world of earnings in Alberta compared to the rest of Canada.
The sentiment in Calgary is the least bearish of the 3 markets polled with only 23% of the survey thinking Calgary SFD prices will be 20% lower in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
EDMONTON average detached house prices in May 2013 also moved up on a rally of 3.9% M/M (Canada Chart), while condo prices sold off 2.4% M/M. Where Calgary has mostly positive sales numbers, Edmonton has red ink in the Y/Y column with single family detached sales down 14.4% Y/Y and townhouses down 20.3% Y/Y (Scorecard). The current enthusiasm from bidders puts Edmonton SFD prices within a mere 1.9% of the May 2007 peak price (Plunge-O-Meter).
TORONTO average detached house prices for the GTA in May 2013 broke out to new highs along with townhouse and condo prices for a trifecta record breaking month (Toronto Chart). For anyone keeping score, the gap between Vancouver and Toronto housing prices (Vancouver vs Toronto) is narrowing, especially condos and marketers should note that HNWI has fallen in love with Toronto.
Never mind the boom, polled sentiment here continues to suggest that prices will be down another 20% in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
OTTAWA average detached house prices are not available, instead the chart on this site reflects Ottawa’s average combined residential prices. OREB’s report is sparse and opaque and the CMHC, records for Ottawa inventory remain one month lagging. In May 2013 Ottawa combined residential prices retreated 0.3% M/M from the record high price set the previous month (Scorecard). Month over month sales boomed 14.7% M/M but annually are down 4.9%.
MONTREAL median (not average) detached house prices in April 2013 (I WILL PUBLISH THE MAY DATA WHEN I GET IT – PROBABLY NEXT WEEK JUNE 10-14) ticked up 1.1% M/M in a narrow price channel just 0.7% shy of the peak set 10 months ago in June 2012 (Canada Chart). Prices are floating on sales resistance (Scorecard) with combined residential sales 11.4% below last year. In the 2011 Census, Montreal added 6.4% more dwelling units while only adding 5.2% more people. There is no shortage of housing, but there is a shortage of earnings; the Province of Quebec ranks 6th in Canada’s 10 provinces for earnings and prints an unemployment rate of 7.8% in April; 0.1% above Ontario’s.