“At difficult times requiring sophisticated analysis, it is Greg’s time to shine. He has been top of these events for so long other analyst’s turn to Weldons work because it has been so good, is so good.” – Michael Campbell.
Is the Federal Reserve going to save us all with QE3? Weldon say’s “absolutely they will do QE3. The questions are only the timing, how to execute and how much will be needed to be effective”. There is a great deal of uncertainty right now as these markets and the environment have never been more difficult. “The fed will keep dangling the QE3 carrot in front of the markets long enough to keep them in check, so that they don’t hit another slide into a deflationary mode, which they are really on the verge of doing”. So QE3 is coming and the markets sense that. The real question is when. Greg spells out below some of the challenges the Fed faces in timing its QE3 stimulus below.
“Never has there been been a more critical fiscal or political situation. No one can really debate the fact that the fiscal future of the US hangs in the balance. That is a daunting process that really, in my mind, keeps the Fed on hold for the moment. Regardless the hope will run out at some point and the fed will move. You’ll get a rally, it will be disappointing,”
That and the Fed won’t have a lot of bullets left should QE3 fail. That and there is an election coming.
With previous stimulus packages “We knew you would get some commodity inflation, some inflation in the markets, but you would not get the type of inflation that would show up in the regular economy, like wage inflation for exampe. You just wouldn’t have it. The trillions of dollars printed and pumped in sent the equity markets and commodity markets higher. It also re-liquified the banks and kept the system from collapsing into itself, yet it had very little efect on the real economy. The US economy is sick and getting sicker with US existing home sales recently seeing its biggest monthy decline, and US Food and Energy prices, particularly gasoline, are now down 3 months in a row. Further the US. posted the biggest retail sales decline in its history and the US labour market is clearly in a long term crisis of unemployment. Case closed”.
The markets are living on hope here, but that can only last so long. The real question is, can Bernanke can pull off something monetarily before the election?
Weldon Financial produces independent research for the sophisticated investor and/or trader and offers investment management solutions that capitalize on global market trends. Greg Weldon is the founder and sole producer of all the research and operates his money management services as a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.
Weldon’s Money Monitor offers a very independent, objective view of the global markets by applying a top down market analysis and a bottom up technical analysis. Greg also publishes The Metal Monitor and The ETF Playbook offering specific focus on the precious metals markets (prices of Gold, Silver, etc.) and the world of Exchange Traded Funds, respectively. He has a creative and captivating writing style and his loyal readers have claimed that the ‘research pays for itself over time’.
The Global Macro-Discretionary Program manages money for individuals, joint, trust, corporate and partnership accounts. Mr. Weldon approaches his investment selections from a top-down macro-perspective and then applies his quantitative discipline from the bottom-up to execute his methodology, seeking to produce an absolute return while sharply focusing on risk management. This program invests in a diverse range of futures contracts across the commodity, currency, global stock index, and global fixed-income sectors. Weldon’s Commodity Long-Short Program takes a more quantitative approach, using our proprietary Momentum Trading Indicators, and invests strictly in the strongest ‘bullish’ and ‘bearish’ commodities. And, our Metals-Only Program is also quantitatively driven and seeks to profit in bullish and bearish markets using a select basket of precious metals.