Market Update: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold US Dollar

Posted by Peter Grandich -

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With Summer unofficially behind us now, we enter three of the more interesting months of every trading year.

U.S. Stock Market – The “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street shall eat up the perception that Bernanke and the FED have or will be in QE3 mode. Despite numerous fundamental and technical reasons for concern, it’s been my belief that the path of least resistance remains up, not down. I continue to think a marginal, new all-time high is possible.


U.S. Bonds – Thanks to QE3 unfolding, I continue to hope the 10yr. T-Bond yield can get down to 1.25% It would be a screaming short if and when it does. U.S. bonds look to be the worse investment vehicle for the next decade.


U.S. Dollar – Despite something like 95%-98% bulls, the U.S. Dollar managed only a dead-cat bounce and is rolling over as we speak. This is in the face of Europe still a basket case (what does that say about the dollar once Uncle Sam shows to be even a bigger basket case next year?). The only party that doesn’t know the U.S Dollar is terminally ill is the U.S. Dollar.


Gold – The “mother” of all gold bull markets has had a classic consolidation/correction in a secular bull market that still has much left on the upside.

Please remember we shall be collecting funds for the “Tokyo Rose” of gold bears when we go to new highs.


Oil and Natural Gas – Triple-digit oil is around the corner. Natural gas remains an avoid.



Special Note – The one fly in the ointment for many markets remains the belief it’s a question of when, not if, war breaks out between Israel and Iran. There are all sorts of signs suggesting it’s indeed when and the number of possible scenarios that can unfold if and when this take place are many. We shall see if and when the time comes and go from there.