Market Update: Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold US Dollar

Posted by Peter Grandich -

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U.S. Stock Market – While no roaring bull on general equities, I’ve continue to suggest that betting against a market rise would be a poor choice. Despite all the predictions of meltdowns and such, the market continues to discount very legitimate poor fundamentals and technicals. I continue to suggest it would come as no surprise that it makes a minor new, all-time high this year. The only potential “game-changer” to that is my long-standing belief that a major military conflict in the Middle East is a question of when, not if.

U.S. Bonds – I had felt an opening short position to the 10-year T-Bond when the yield hit 1.44% was  a way to play the upcoming worse investment for the next ten years and to become aggressively short if the yield fell to 1.25% or below. Those thoughts remain.

U.S Dollar – The suggestion that the 83-84 area on the U.S. Dollar Index could prove to be the top in what was little more than a dead-cat-bounce in the U.S. Dollar, appears to have been good eyesight as of now. I continue to believe what we have witnessed in Europe is a mere opening act to what shall unfold in the U.S. (starting by this time next year).

Gold – Despite the bear boat being loaded to the gills and the bull camp nearly deserted, yours truly has stood tall in his belief the “mother” of all gold bull markets remains intact. I was comforted last week when I read the world’s worse gold forecaster and the #1 buffoon in the gold perma-bear camp, poorly attempt (as he does daily in his dribble commentaries) to mock my “mother”  view and twist other people’s comments to suit his daily bashing of gold (the latest being Lawrence Raulston’s gold and junior resource shares comments). There are numerous fundamental and technical reasons to be bullish on gold but none more important than the most wrong gold forecaster in the last  decade continues to publish daily reasons why gold’s 500% rise is in his eyes just a mirage (just like the mirage that anyone who has listened to him isn’t broke by now). Remember, there will be another fundraising effort for the Tokyo Rose of gold bears when gold breaks above $2,000.

Oil and Natural Gas – Nothing has changed; like oil and avoid natural gas.

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