Canada’s main stock index was little changed on Friday with investors waited with bated breath for a resolution by U.S. lawmakers to end a federal government shutdown and overall market action muted ahead of the Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend.
After recording its biggest jump in three months on Thursday, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index finished the session down 2.30 points, or 0.02%, at 12,892.11. Thursday’s gains came after U.S. House speaker John Boehner said Republicans are offering legislation that will allow for a temporary increase in the debt ceiling.
Any sign that an agreement may be in the works to head off a possible default by the U.S. government was enough to push North American markets sharply higher. U.S. President Barack Obama and congressional Republican leaders worked to end their fiscal impasse on Friday but struggled to strike a deal on the details for a short-term reopening of the government and an increase in the U.S. debt limit.
It is widely thought that failure to raise the borrowing limit would have serious repercussions for the fiscal standing of the United States, the world’s biggest economy, and for markets and economies of the United States and other nations worldwide.
But we have seen a similar situation play out recently with proclamations of dire consequences only to end in a ‘miraculous’ solution at the eleventh hour. Once again the debt ceiling issue is providing amusing political theatre as each side has their much sought after moment to climb on their soapbox and spout their special interest and/or agenda of the day.
While we have witnessed moderate volatility during this U.S. “crisis,” the markets appear to be relatively confident that a solution will once again emerge. Investors appear to be casting politicians as the boy who cried wolf and largely shrugging off the issue having seen it all before to a degree – despite the hourly ‘chicken little’ coverage from some reporters on networks like CNBC.
While the massive issue of government debt is nothing to sneeze at, the debt ceiling is not likely to be the central issue that topples North American markets. The issue will likely be resolved and appear like noise within short order.
What investors should be paying attention to is third quarter earnings season which is on the horizon and should start coming at us in earnest over the next several weeks. Ultimately it is growth or declines in cash flows in the particular stocks you own that will chart the direction of your portfolio overtime, not the three ring circus Washington continues to provide for your amusement.
Pay more attention to quarterly earnings calls from your core growth and income stocks (or let us do it for you) and less to Washington – while they may not provide the entertainment value, they truly affect your financial position and will likely allow you to keep down your lunch.
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