July Market Breadth

Posted by ShortSideofLong.com

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Breadth-Summary

The last market breadth update was written in June, with a theme of main internal indicators pushing towards overbought levels. The report showed how NYSE High Low Ratio, Advance Decline Line and Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200 MAs were all signalling that the rally was overextended.

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Breadth-Summary

 

Source: Short Side of Long

After the report was published, majority of the main US indices paused, as the price action has been consolidating in a sideways manner throughout majority of July. During the consolation, we have seen a slight pullback in indicators that were overbought the month before (as seen in Chart 1), but not enough change to write an in-depth summary. At the time of writing, HL Ratio and Stocks Above 200 MA both remain around 90% readings, which is considered overbought. This is still not a time to be making long term investments.

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Nasdaq-HL-Ratio

Source: Short Side of Long

One interesting condition that does stand out as a cautionary signal is seen within the Nasdaq Composite internals. While the overall index remains in a bull market and continues to higher highs, one should be able to observe that since the beginning of the year internals measured by New Highs vs New Lows have been showing signs of deterioration. We have seen a similar condition during peaks in both 2007 and 2011.

I will definitely be keeping a close eye on the conditions of Nasdaq’s internals in the future newsletter posts focusing on market breadth. As the volatility picks up, I am sure market internal picture will get more interesting and posts more in-depth.

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