Jobs Continue To Trend Higher – Slowly

Posted by Robert Prechter

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Yesterday, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (jobs) increased by 148,000 in September. Today’s chart provides some perspective in regards to the US job market. Note how the number of jobs steadily increased from 1961 to 2001 (top chart). During the last economic recovery (i.e. the end of 2001 to the end of 2007), job growth was unable to get back up to its long-term trend (first time since 1961). More recently, the number of nonfarm payrolls has been working its way higher but at a pace that is not fast enough to close the gap on its 1961 to 2001 trend. It is interesting to note that the current number of US jobs recently surpassed its 2001 peak. However, the job market has yet to reach the peak levels obtained back in early 2008.

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