Warren Buffett has said that if you look around the poker table and you can’t spot the patsy, you’re it. In that spirit, another famed investor, Jeremy Grantham, is trying to deal investors a better hand.
Jeremy Grantham is a British investor and Co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm. GMO is one of the largest managers of such funds in the world, having more than US $107 billion in assets under management as of December 2010. Grantham is regarded as a highly knowledgeable investor in various stock, bond, and commodity markets, and is particularly noted for his prediction of various bubbles.
Grantham doesn’t mince words. In Grantham’s view, outlined in a quarterly letter published late Friday, individuals launched into the market have embarked on “dangerous investment voyages” that threaten to separate them from their money. They hear the tempting call of countless stock-market sirens — self-interested cheerleaders and barkers who promise that it’s different this time, and that you must buy now or miss the boat.
Making the journey even more perilous is that stocks around the world are either fairly priced or nearly so, he says. Investors who buy now can expect meager returns over the next seven years.
….read Grantham’s detailed version of the 10 Investment Lessons: HERE – The Longest Quarterly Letter Ever.’
Here is a summarized version of the 10 Investment Lessons:
1. Believe in history
“All bubbles break; all investment frenzies pass. The market is gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price, but eventually, after breaking your heart and your patience … it will go back to fair value. Your task is to survive until that happens.”
2. ‘Neither a lender nor a borrower be’
“Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness and greed.”
3. Don’t put all of your treasure in one boat
“The more investments you have and the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you.”
4. Be patient and focus on the long term
“Wait for the good cards this will be your margin of safety.”
5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals
“The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing.”
6. Try to contain natural optimism
“Optimism is a lousy investment strategy”
7. On rare occasions, try hard to be brave
“If the numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced market, grit your teeth and go for it.”
8. Resist the crowd; cherish numbers only
“Ignore especially the short-term news. The ebb and flow of economic and political news is irrelevant. Do your own simple measurements of value or find a reliable source.”
9. In the end it’s quite simple. really
Estimates and forecasts such as the ones GMO makes for the next seven years aren’t complicated, Grantham says – “[GMO] estimates are not about nuances or Ph.D.s. They are about ignoring the crowd, working out simple ratios and being patient.”
10. ‘This above all: To thine own self be true’
“It is utterly imperative that you know your limitations as well as your strengths and weaknesses. You must know your pain and patience thresholds accurately and not play over your head. If you cannot resist temptation, you absolutely must not manage your own money.”
Jeremy Grantham is a British investor and Co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm. GMO is one of the largest managers of such funds in the world, having more than US $107 billion in assets under management as of December 2010. Grantham is regarded as a highly knowledgeable investor in various stock, bond, and commodity markets, and is particularly noted for his prediction of various bubbles.
Estimates and forecasts such as the ones GMO makes for the next seven years aren’t complicated, Grantham says
