It’s Starting to Get Ugly Out There

Posted by Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

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Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss the US Equity Market Technicals. They position the technical charts which they go through in the context of the following primary sources of system risk to the markets:

1. Too much debt globally; public and private debt has skyrocketed since 2008.

2. Mal-investment due to perverse incentives: borrow money for stock buybacks rather than invest in new productive capacity, etc.

39014 b3. Stagnant income/revenues: households, companies and nations cannot support more debt

4. The rise of high-frequency trading (HFT) has increased the odds of flash crashes and instability

5. Rising U.S. dollar has triggered capital flight from emerging markets and China

6. China’s economy is grinding to a halt, crushing demand for commodities and commodity-dependent economies

7. Opaque banking: shadow banking in China, dark pools in offshore banking centers, etc. True totals of debt, leverage and quality of collateral are all unknown

8. Deteriorating collateral globally. How many of the 60 million empty “investment” flats in China can be sold for the purchase price? This is just one example of illiquid, impaired assets that are grossly overvalued.

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