Is recent Stock Market Rally Real or a Blow-off Top?​​​​​​

Posted by Chris Vermeulen & John Winston: Modest Money

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The U.S. stock market remains in a full-blown bull market with President Trump re-energizing the base.  The U.S. stock market has temporarily become overbought and is likely due for a pause before the next new impulse wave up resumes.

My research indicates…

This Bull Market is not over. After this, it will move much higher!


Courtesy of  TMTF service

The chart, displayed below, is an overbought/oversold indicator which when it pushes above +100 or below -100, respectively, the indicator will hit its’ extreme point.  The market then respond to it which indicates a change in the market’s trend.


This is a breath indicator constructed from new high/new low ratios. New highs are the number of NYSE issues which closed at a new 52-week high. New lows are the number of NYSE issues that reached a new 52-week low. It is expressed as the number of issues, that closed at a new high, as a percentage of the total. These overbought/oversold indicators are effective when implemented as a contra-trend signal.  It is reflecting a down trend and the indicator is becoming oversold. This suggests that an upside reversal will be forthcoming.


U.S. Economic Confidence Index at Record High

The Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index soared seven points to reach +16 ending on March 5th, 2017.The current conditions component score is at a record monthly high.


Americans are very optimistic as this marks the highest weekly average ever, in Gallup’s nine-year trend.

President Trump gave his State Of The Union Address to Congress on February. 28th, 2017, emphasizing his key economic policy goals!  Traders on Wall Street were decidedly upbeat.  The stock market rallied gloriously the following day on Wednesday, March 1st, 2017. The Dow Jones industrial average closed above 21,000 for the first time in its history.

A recently released Gallup Poll, “President Donald Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday night had a positive effect on many of those who watched it or read news coverage about it later. Almost six in 10 of this group rated the address as excellent or good, and more than one in three said it made them more confident in Trump’s abilities to carry out his duties as president”.

Regardless of where all the markets are going, trading and focusing on our Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) and trading only the hot stocks and sectors, for quick oversized gains, is my expertise. Therefore, these momentum trades are moving significantly in one direction on heavy volume. The length of time for which we may hold a momentum trade depends on how quickly the trade is moving — with trades lasting 3-25 days in length and then we look for a 7%- 35% potential gain.


There is some selling out there taking place. We are comfortable with this and think its needed for the markets to continue higher. We think this move is bullish and is providing new opportunities to trade this week.

By: John Winston
and Chris Vermeulen


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