“Nobody gets justice. People only get good luck or bad luck.”
Commentary & Analysis
If you feel lucky, buy oil today…
Harry Callahan: Uh uh. I know what you’re thinking. “Did he fire six shots or only five?” Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself. But being this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you’ve gotta ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?” Well, do ya, punk?
That little monologue above is from Clint Eastwood, aka Harry Callahan, in the classic movie, Dirty Harry. As I viewed my wave chart on oil this morning, I thought: Do I feel lucky? You may believe investing/trading is not about luck. I would disagree. Give me luck over being good any day. Here is what we have in the chart and what I wrote in our 2016 Outlook & Global Macro View report:
One of the reasons I have focused on commodity currencies in this macro section is my expectation/guess, based on a symmetrical Elliott Wave setup for the oil market. As you can see in the chart below oil prices (WTI futures) are heading into to a test of the credit crunch bottom, which came in at $32.40. The extension target for what appears to be a quite symmetrical 5th wave is 31.54—how nice to pierce the old support, take out a whole bunch of sell stops, and rally sharply into the new year to throw a monkey wrench into all the dire forecasts for oil and commodities in general. It’s almost too perfect a scenario to verbalize.
I show a 32.10 low in oil today, on Reuters. We also know markets seek out levels to find the most activity, usually before turning. And as I said, I would imagine there is a lot activity here at the major swing low–$32.40 (labeled Wave A).
I am not sure if I feel lucky enough to plunge in. My trading of late has been far from lucky, unfortunately. But it’s worth a look and some consideration with panic starting to fill the air.
President, Black Swan Capital