For 5 years the correlation between the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the growth of the S&P 500 has risen dramatically. Since QE3 was unveiled, the correlation is converging on 1 which of course is just happy coincidence and nothing to do with the free and easy flow of liquidity that month after month of Fed largesse has created. The problem is we now know that the hurdles to a Fed un-Taper are very high and so we can extrapolate the end-point for the Fed’s balance sheet and where stocks would trade at that point.The S&P 500’s recent exuberance has priced in the total expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet to the end of the taper, so how much more upside is there?

Coincidence…?

Perhaps not…continue reading HERE