The perfect storm of historically low inventory coupled with immediate demand for larger accommodations and ultra low interest rates is beginning to fade from the current market behaviour. Consecutive months of record setting new listings data has the inventory levels on the rise. Resulting in home values which had been exponentially increasing is beginning to slow.
Active listings have risen over 46% in the past two months. From the total inventory of 3,126 in February 2021 to 4,588 during April 2021. The sudden rise of inventory has led to a break of the initial downtrend (red trendline). As the available properties continues to rise throughout the spring and into summer months prices will likely begin to move sideways. Eitel Insights looks for the inventory to challenge the next downtrend (yellow trendline) which implies inventory rising to 5,700 during the peak months of 2021.
Home values did increase once more but the average price was only able to increase by $14,000, the lowest price increase since May of 2020. Home prices during May 2020 were averaging $1.586M, by March 2021 the average price had increased to $1.958M. That increase implies an average growth of $37,200 each month over the previous 10 months. The nominal price increase of $14,000 from March 2021 to April 2021 rose the average price for a home inside of Greater Vancouver to $1.972M, just shy of the illustrious $2 million price bracket.
Evidence of the average sales potentially reaching the near term highs is the data that comes from the advancing declining stats. When comparing the individual 20 areas which make up Greater Vancouver. Using a month over month comparison the past month of April realized 9 areas inside of Greater Vancouver where the average price increased, but had 11 areas declined. That marks the first instance, over the past year, where the declining areas outnumbered the advancing.
As home values begin to reach their apex of the growth phase, the inevitable ebb to the recent markets flow, will result from the rising inventory environment coupled with stricter lending policies and an interest rate that is no longer at historically low levels. The natural barrier of $2M for the average home in Greater Vancouver will likely hold as a new artificial ceiling.
The possibility of a 8-10% correction after the peak occurs is realistic. That would imply a retests the previous market cycle high of $1.830M. To expect prices to correct below the previous channel is an unlikely outcome. More likely is an evolution out of the growth trend which increased home values over $386,000 to a period of sideways action, as price discovery confirms the previous technical break out.
Clients and followers of Eitel Insights analytics will remember our initial published article in 2017 using technical indicators to call the top of the Greater Vancouver housing market. Subsequently the home sale prices corrected 20% during 2019. The upcoming sideways action will not likely result in a major correction as the last cycle offered. Reason being the Bank of Canada created the artificial floor to home values when they instigated the the Canadian Mortgage Bond Purchasing Program in 2020. (See past article for details regarding the CMBP)
Sales continued at a high pace during April with 1,667 completed transactions occurring. Over the past two months the sales achieved over 3,600 deals. That many transactions in a two month period has only occurred during 2015 and 2016 frenzied market conditions. Key thing to remember all good things come to an end. Homeowners looking to capitalize on the high priced environment may want to list sharply. As the inventory continues to build some of the exploitative tactics that are working for sellers may be coming to an end.
As individual markets vary across Greater Vancouver, get in touch with Eitel Insights to find out how much your property holdings have increased over the recent run up. Become a client to receive actionable intelligence based on analytical interpretation.
Dane Eitel, Founder and Lead Analyst,
Eitel Insights
