Todd Market Forecast for Monday March 5, 2012
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW – 15 on 600 net declines
NASDAQ COMP – 26 on 350 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND – Bearish (change)
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND – Bullish
A projected attenuation of Chinese growth and renewed concerns about Greece caused a Dow drop of as much as 90 points in the early going, but about 2 hours into the trading day, the market began to come back.
This has been the pattern for the past few months. It has been a winning trade to buy into intraday weakness. One of these days that trade isn’t going to work anymore.
Today the NASDAQ Composite closed below a previous low (arrow) for the first time since mid December. The same is true for the S&P 500. For this reason, we will move to a short term sell. If this index decides to turn and move to another high, then we will have to move back to a buy.
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto got whacked pretty good, down 119 points.
GOLD: Gold was down 15 intraday, but manage to claw its way back. It was still down for the session.
BONDS: Bonds were down marginally.
THE REST: The dollar was down just a bit. Not much influence on gold, copper and silver which were lower and crude oil, which was higher.
Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
System 2 traders are in cash. Stay there on Tuesday.
System 7 traders sold the SPY at 136.86 for a loss of .07, essentially break even. Stay in cash on Tuesday.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The services ISM number was 57.3, better than the expected 56.0. Factory orders dropped 1.0%, better than the consensus 1.6% drop. There are no important releases scheduled for Tuesday.
We’re on a sell for bonds as of December 21.
We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of January 18.
We’re on a buy on gold as of Feb. 21.
We’re on a buy on silver as Feb. 21.
We’re on a buy for crude oil as of Feb. 13.
We’re on a buy for copper as of December 20
We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange TSX
We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
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