Greece & Non-Farm Payrolls Trigger Moves

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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Todd Market Forecast for Thursday June 4, 2015  

Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. EST

DOW                                                    -170 on 1650 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                                  – 40 on 1200 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                          Bearish


STOCKS:  Pessimism about Greece (again) caused selling in Europe which didn’t help our markets. Also concern about the non farm payrolls to be released at 8:3 EST on Friday played a roll. This is the most market moving of all economic releases.

GOLD:  Gold lost $9. The reason cited was that the IMF stated that inflation remained elusive. Gold traders seem to think that the IMF knows what it’s talking about.    

CHART: The advance decline line continues to underperform. There are no absolutes, but this is normally not a good sign going forward.


BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

 Our intermediate term system is on a buy from Feb. 20, 2015.

System 7   We are long the SSO from 67.93. If there are more declining issues than advancing ones at 3:45 EST, sell at the close.    

System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.               

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

News and fundamentals:  New jobless claims were 276,000, in line with expectations. On Friday we get the dreaded non farm payrolls.

Interesting Stuff   Hedge fund manager John Paulson gave $400 million to Harvard’s engineering school. Harvard now has a total endowment of $36.4 billion. So what do they do with it? Do they use it to open opportunities for students??

TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto dropped 135.


BONDS:  Bonds had a decent rebound.                              

THE REST:  The dollar was slightly higher. Silver and crude oil got clobbered.                

We’re on a sell for bonds as of June 3.                     

We’re on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the euro as of June 2.                       

We’re on a sell for gold as of May 19.                       

We’re on a sell for silver as of May 19.                        

We’re moving to a sell for crude oil as of today June 4.                             

We’re on a sell for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of May 6.    

We’re on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Fund as of October 30.    

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.