‘Fixed Income Only Positive Return Asset Class in 2014″

Posted by Mike Shedlock - Global Economic Trend Analysis

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30-Year Treasury Yield Headed to 2.50%’ Says Steen Jakobsen

I don’t believe the growth estimates of the IMF and neither does Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist of Saxo Bank.

Steen goes one further and calls for the yield on the 30-year long bond to drop a minimum of 150 basis points to 2.5%.

From Steen via Email

2014 started with high expectations on growth. The IMF, World Bank and ECB were falling over themselves to upgrade growth forecast for 2014 in early January but by now Q1 growth in the US is expected to come in at +1.9% after the initial +2.6% advertised by the pundits in late 2014 (Bloomberg December 12th, Survey).

The IMF forecast is despite Q4 revised considerably down from 4.1% to 3.2%, ending at 2.7% in final count. (37% drop from early to final number).

This apparently was entirely due to weather….

But the fixed income market seems to have a different opinion: This is my long term chart which have maximum one signal per year.

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