I’ve argued that we’re in a new depression. The depth of the new depression is clear. What is unclear to most observers are the nature and timing of the recovery.
The answer is that high unemployment will persist for years, the U.S. will not regain 2019 output levels until 2022 and growth going forward will be even worse than the weakest-ever growth of the 2009–2020 recovery.
This may not be the end of the world, yet it is far worse than the most downbeat forecasts. Some sixth-grade math is a good place to begin the analysis.