Massive Durable Goods Orders Surge – Record 22.6%….

Posted by Business Insider

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Durable goods orders surged 22.6% in July, associated with a massive increase in aircraft orders. 
The report showed that transportation orders were up 74.2%, but excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.8%, though this compares to a revised June number that showed orders ex-transport rose 3% compared to a previously reported 0.8%. 
 
Bloomberg Economist Michael McDonough tweeted the following chart, which shows the massive rise in orders. (more below)
 
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Excluding defense, new orders were up 24.9% in July, and non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 0.5% in July. 
 
This is the largest increase in the headline reading for durable orders ever, topping the previous record of a 16.6% increase in June of 2000. 
 
Following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said, “In one line: Headline is wild, details more encouraging than -0.8% ex-transport number suggests.”
 
Expectations were for orders to increase 8% in July.
 
Paul Dales said the 1.5% increase in non-transport, non-defense capital goods orders suggests, “business investment in equipment is on course to rise rapidly in the third quarter.”
 
There was a massive range of expectations for this report, with some economists expecting this to push the headline increase in durable goods orders as high as 30%.  
 
The June durable goods report was also revised up to a 2.7% increase from a previous reading of 0.7%. 
 

S&P’s Case-Shiller home price index have declined for the second-straight month.

June prices fell 0.2%, worse than the consensus estimate for no change, and even with the decline seen in May.

Year-over-year, prices climbed 8.1%, about in-line with forecasts but slower than a revised 9.4% gain for May.

The 20-city index hit 172.33, about in-line with forecasts and up from a revised 170.68 in June 2013.

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” David M. Blitzer, Chairman of 
the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing 
sector.”

Here’s what it’s looked like recently:

WIDESPREAD SLOWDOWN IN US HOME PRICE GAINS

S&P’s Case-Shiller home price index have declined for the second-straight month.

June prices fell 0.2%, worse than the consensus estimate for no change, and even with the decline seen in May.

Year-over-year, prices climbed 8.1%, about in-line with forecasts but slower than a revised 9.4% gain for May.

The 20-city index hit 172.33, about in-line with forecasts and up from a revised 170.68 in June 2013.

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” David M. Blitzer, Chairman of 
the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing 
sector.”

Here’s what it’s looked like recently:

screen shot 2014-08-26 at 9.07.03 am