Don’t Worry be Happy vs “I smell bear meat upcoming”

Posted by Peter Grandich -

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U.S. Stock Market – I’ve often said it’s not so much what you do but what you avoid doing in the market that ends up separating the winners from the losers. I believe you would sooner find a needle in a haystack than a bullish U.S. stock market commentator within the hard asset community (where I ply myself) or among the investors who are fond for metals and mining shares. I know because many of them have questioned why I haven’t bet against the market for almost five years and have said for much of 2012 it would come as no surprise that the market made a new, marginal all-time high.

Barring something unforeseen and/or a Middle East conflict far worse than most anticipate, I continue to believe the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street shall pull out all the stops (and say whatever is necessary) to achieve this goal. But such a feat is not going to be the beginning of something much bigger IMHO but just the conclusion of the greatest bear market rally in the secular bear market of all time (that began in November 2007). It’s my personal goal to be very liquid by this time next year (and that may include lightning up on all equities).

It’s just a gentle reminder for now but as 2013 takes hold is likely to become a warning (which means don’t send me emails about selling anytime soon).

U.S. Bonds – I continue to hope the “happy” people on Wall Street can get the 10-year T-Bond down to 1.25% but time is not on their side. I continue to believe U.S. bonds shall end up the worse investment for the next decade and hope to get a chance to get aggressively short them before the house of cards comes tumbling down.


U.S. Dollar – A very bearish technical signal has been trigger in the daily charts of the U.S. Dollar Index. A “Death Cross” (when the 50-Day M.A. crosses the 200-Day M.A.) has occurred (Point A) and it looks like the Index wants to test critical support around 78. Stay tuned.

Gold and Silver – I think it’s pretty clear where I stand here. One note of interest was the report of a large delivery request of silver made last week to J.P. Morgan and the difficulty to make good on the whole delivery. We saw the typical bear raid around this and I smell bear meat upcoming.

Oil and Natural Gas – I remain bullish on oil and anticipate a seasonal bounce in natural gas.

Interesting article on Zinc that notes two Grandich clients Donner Metals and Sunridge Gold as possible takeover targets.  Please note Donner’s new website