The value of technical analysis has become a massive benefit to investors who take advantage of the actionable intelligence produced through analytical interpretation. Let’s recall where the market has been before we get into where it is going. During the uncertain and frenzied market conditions technical analysis allowed Eitel Insights to call the top, first to do so of our analytical peers. More importantly than being first the call was correct. After breaking the growth trend in 2017 (green line) prices dropped off from 1.830 average sales price in May 2017, to 1.468Million during Feb 2019. The recent rebound was technically predicable as well.
The rationale as to why prices found a temporary bottom during 2019 is the properly place technical trend lines established during the 2008 -2009 recovery (black uptrends). As prices were down 19% from peaks, Eitel Insights did say buyers are coming off the benches due to the mitigation of the stress tests, along with home values decreasing back to 2015 levels.
Prices had a prolonged test of the uptrend (lower black line) during 2019, with over 5 months of pricing data testing the staunch trend. Prices can only test a trend for so long before moving on to create a new trend, or test another previously established trendline. Current prices of 1.714Million are back up testing the downtrend which was created during the market peak and subsequent lower price points. While some analysts and the real estate boards have touted the recent increase in prices as the forever win, we see it as a typical lower highs coupled with lower lows in order to fulfill the identified market cycle.
Currently, prices are obviously testing the downtrend, coupled with the lower echelon of the upper channel. September finished with an average sales price of $1.710 Million, October ended with $1.714 Million. With just a four thousand dollar increase, we believe the near term top is likely being put in place in order for prices to return lower in order to have another attempt at breaking through that staunch uptrend line.
One of these two lines will have to relent. Given how strong that market has performed and with all the bullish chatter you would think the downtrend has already been broken and new highs are being put in place. That just simply isn’t the truth. As the market weakens, the bulls will say as the market weakens is this is normal after having such a run up, but the run up was technically perfect. Given how a triple top was put in place during 2017 – 2018, we believe the power behind the three year downtrend will be enough to break the decreasing power of the uptrend with each and every impending test. This should come as relief to home buyers but possibly induce some fear sweats for the sellers.
The entry level markets have been rising since the 2nd quarter, as we had written in February for the Michael Campbell’s Money Talks, Insiders Edge. When a large group with a similar mindset descends into a small region, prices will increase. That occurred due to the pulled forward demand to buy a detached property. With Maple Ridge and Port Coquitlam detached markets rising above 1 Million dollars the entry level of the market has been lifted. The high end market has been substantially damaged, with properties selling well below previous expectations.
Pulled forward demand simply means, purchasers who had planned to buy during the upcoming 3 – 12 months became immediate buyers due to the uncertainty of the pandemic, which resulted in most employees working from home and parents becoming teachers. The exodus from the condo market to the detached market was palpable. Inventory has increased over 2,209 since April while detached properties have only increased 484 over the same time period. This imbalance has forced prices in the short term to increase and retest the downtrend. There will come a time when everyone who wanted a house and could afford one purchased. If the period of strength is coming to an end, what is next?
The growing need to sell is percolating. Largely due to the 11,400 properties purchased during the first six months of 2016, with an average sales price of 1.784 Million. Investors should begin to gear up, as deferred mortgage payments eventually will have to pay the piper, since they didn’t pay the bank. The 11,400 2016 purchasers are praying for continued increased sales resulting in higher sales prices. If prices do not increase and actually decline further the 11,400 number will definitely rise which forces more competition amongst sellers, ultimately pushing prices lower. 2021 will see an incredible increase for the inventory market and this will be met with little enthusiasm as the pulled forward demand has been disbursed.
Eitel Insights believes the 2017 instigated downtrend (orange line) will hold, with a possibility that a minor breakout occurs, followed by a sharp decline. In that instance, the next occurrence will be the inevitable test of the lower line of the long term uptrend (black line). This again, will be immensely important, this time more so for the bulls. Important to the bulls due to what a break of the long term uptrend will likely imply for future data. After the break of the uptrend we would anticipate similar volatile market behaviour, as was the case when the top line of the uptrend broke, which resulted in a loss of 235,000 in just four months.
The immediate and overdone stimulus actually created a temporary windfall for the economy. During the 2nd quarter, Canadian households received 56 Billion from the government while they only lost 23 Billion in lost wages and salaries due to the pandemic (Source Robert Hogue RBC) a net gain of 33 Billion. The additional income when added to the pent up demand during the shutdown and the pulled forward demand resulted in a massive late summer and fall rally for the Greater Vancouver real estate market.
The completed sales came in with another high water mark for 2020, as the oddities for this year continue. Some have exclaimed the 1353 sales as historic highs. Taking a look at the chart you can see that isn’t a true sentiment of where sales are. What is true is the historic high compared to previous October data. This pent up and pulled forward demand has resulted in very unusual activity given seasonal norms.
To recount what has transpired is the easy part. Interpreting what is on the horizon is the hard part. Eitel Insights ability to accurately predict the future based on the technical analysis has been showcased in the past, the current volatile waters will eventually calm. Once the market returns to normal rhythms, the supply demand factors upcoming during 2021 in the detached market look to favour the buyers more than the sellers.
The governmental factor for BC has changed, while remaining the same. The past three and half years were governed by the NDP coalition with the Green party. The initial reaction to the change in leadership was to break the uptrend (green line) which had propelled Greater Vancouver detached prices higher from 1.184 Million in July 2014 to 1.830 in May 2017. After breaking the growth trend, a sharp downtrend developed (red line) which continually decreased prices until the temporary bottom was discovered in 2019.
This time not only do the NDP have a majority, they seemingly have a mandate. Having the benefit of the past three and a half years as evidence which has resulted in lower prices on average. Add in a historical point of view and which continues to indicate prices decline under an NDP government. Take the 1990’s into consideration. During the last extended NDP leadership prices declined 26% from the top to bottom. Taking the Premier of BC at his words, one could assume the upcoming 4 years will be a challenge to hold prices at current levels, let alone increase from here.
The initial period of weakness began during October 2017 and remained for 21 months. The result of that weakness was prices declined a full 19% which meant a drop of $360,000 over a 21 month time frame. The recent period of strength lasted 13 months from September 2019 at 1.5Million to current levels of 1.715Million an increase of 215,000. In this see saw trending market, the next occurrence after strength is weakness.
The future weakness will likely result from the need to sell, which will heavily impact those who purchased during 2016. The first two quarters of 2016 averaged 1.784Million, and had over 11,400 sales. Even if, prices stay at current levels these properties will be underwater during their 5 year mortgage renewal period.
Inventory had a pull back during October, again thanks to the properly placed trend line that data has come back to retest the uptrend. With just 4,454 active listings, it wouldn’t take much of the potential 11,400 high priced sales from 2016 to list 2021 in order to change market sentiment.
As prices hold according to the downtrend, any future price below 1.6Million would produce another test of the lower line prolonged uptrend.
The significance of the two divergent trend lines entering into the apex of a four year trend cannot be overstated. If or when prices break below the lower line of the prolonged uptrend a volatile reaction will ensue.
The previous example of the type of volatility we anticipate, came when the top line of the prolonged uptrend was broken for the last time in July 2018 (upper black line). The following months produced an attempt to regain position above the uptrend which failed, and subsequently sent the average price from $1.705 Million in November 2018 to $1.468 Million by February 2019 a loss of $237,000 in just 4 months.
Rather than being surprised each and every month with a seemingly chaotic data point, allow the technical analysis offered by Eitel Insights to guide you as to why prices move the way they do, and critical trends are being tested by the data. Without accurate trend lines, investors don’t know which time is more critical than inconsequential sideways data periods. The upcoming two quarters of data are of major significance for both the bears and the bulls of the Greater Vancouver real estate market.
Dane Eitel, Eitel Insights
604 813-1418
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