Cycles – A Fuse, An Explosive And The Igniting Catalyst

Posted by Gordon T. Long - Macro Analytics

Share on Facebook

Tweet on Twitter

10-17-16-MATA-RISK-Harry Dent

Investors need to focus on the two key long term structural changes now underway which are going to ignite destructive global dislocations through early 2020. To better understand why this is going to occur we need to place them in context by first examining the major economic cycles currently underway.

HARRY DENT’S MACROECONOMIC CYCLES & DEMOGRAPHICS

This initial cycle chart is from an in-depth discussion I had with Harry Dent earlier this year. Since leaving Harvard, Harry has spent most of his adult working life  studying demographics and cycles.

An ominous tell tale is that the four cycles he most closely follows are all presently headed down or flat!

10-17-16-MATA-RISK-Harry Dent

Dent attributes this to; the demographics of the baby boom generation, their spending habits as they enter retirement and the overall falling birth rates in the developed economies.

His work suggests the cycles don’t reverse until the early ’20’s.

MARTIN ARMSTRONG’S “ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL”

Another well respected cycles analyst is Martin Armstrong who I additionally interviewed to discuss his highly regarded Economic Confidence Model. This cycle is based on a very long cycle of human history and civilization. It currently shows, according to Armstrong (see below), that economic conditions have been deteriorating since 2015.75 (Sept 2015) and will persist through to the beginning of 2020 (2020.05).

….for more on Armstrong, Kondratieff and much more go HERE

…related:

Connecting the Dots