As a member of our creative caste, Ms Delaney wants to capture the buzz and thrum of city life. She wants to inspire “recognition” and, above all, “empathy.” It’s just that she’d prefer not to empathise too much with those non-creative people. Say, by working for a living and paying her own bills. via http://smalldeadanimals.com
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Has the U.S. lost their Founders’ government?
Historians have a tough time agreeing on many of the turning points in ancient history.
(The republic) began with the overthrow of the Roman monarchy, c. 509 BC, and lasted over 450 years.
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Towards the end of the period a selection of Roman leaders came to so dominate the political arena that they exceeded the limitations of the Republic as a matter of course. Historians have variously proposed the appointment of Julius Caesar as perpetual dictator in 44 BC, the defeat of Mark Antony at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC, and the Roman Senate’s grant of extraordinary powers to Octavian (Augustus) under the first settlement in 27 BC, as candidates for the defining pivotal event ending the Republic.
There’s little doubt that the United States of America has reached a point where, relatively unhampered by legislative or judicial barriers, its president and his bureaucracy exceed the limits of the nation’s Constitution “as a matter of course.” They in turn are quietly but effectively under the control of our “independent” central bank.
Decades from now, it’s possible that historians will look back and conclude that the American experiment, which began with its declaration of independence from and defeat of Great Britain, ended sometime between 1999 and 2014. As with Rome, the pivotal event isn’t obvious, and the list which follows isn’t all-inclusive.
The failure by the U.S. Senate to convict Bill Clinton after his impeachment by the House was the first signal that the rule of law might not matter any more. These days, the law seems to be whatever Barack Obama and Eric Holder want it to be.
President George W. Bush’s formation of the mammoth Homeland Security Department and mission creep at the National Security Agency after the 9/11 terrorist attacks consolidated awesome and disturbing powers in very few hands. Now both outfits are out-of-control monsters.
The 2007-2008 crackup in housing and mortgage lending would be a leading candidate for the pivotal moment prize if one believes that it was the result of decades of conscious effort. Evidence that it was, including the Community Reinvestment Act and HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo’s 1990s housing discrimination directives, both of which forced banks to make loans to vast numbers of borrowers who couldn’t repay, is compelling. Compounding the problem, government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “routinely misrepresented” the quality of both the mortgages they packaged for the securities markets and those they kept on their own books for 15 years. The amounts involved were in the trillions of dollars.
It would have been painful in the short term, but the nation’s economy would likely have recovered, as it always previously had, from that Cloward Piven-like attempt to collapse the system if a frightened George W. Bush administration, opportunistic Congress, and conflicted Federal Reserve hadn’t intervened in the fall of 2008. But they did, and heavy-handedly. Congress passed TARP, despite citizens’ overwhelming opposition. Bush’s Treasury Department then used it to “put a gun to the head” of big-bank CEOs, forcing them to accept government “investment” and de facto control, which the Dodd-Frank legislation solidified two years later.
All the while, the Fed engaged in a massive, undisclosed bailout of domestic and even foreign banks, followed by what became known as “quantitative easing.” And $4.1 trillion later, our central bank’s tiny cadre of suits and skirts now has the ability to almost instantly send the economy into a tailspin any time they see federal government policies or actions they don’t like. Don’t think for a minute that the three branches which nominally run our government don’t know this.
Historians may conclude that the presidential election of 2012 was the last chance to undo the authoritarian encroachment. Pervasive Obama administration harassment of political opponents by its Internal Revenue Service, serial lying about the September 2012 Benghazi terrorist attack, and the mother of all 21st century lies — “if you like your health care plan, doctor, medical provider, and drug regimen, you can keep them” — inarguably delegitimized its result.
Things have now gotten so out of hand that a president consumed with arrogance can go in front of his nation and tell it that he plans to exceed his constitutional authority — and get a standing ovation from the same people who said they were scared to death of “the imperial presidency” a decade ago.
Obama acts as if he’s untouchable, and he seemingly is. If there’s a level of defiance or incompetence which will lead to serious calls for his removal, we haven’t yet reached that threshold — one which would long since have been crossed with any other president of either party.
Just days after his State of the Union address, we saw a cocky president comically declare that there’s “not a smidgen of corruption” at the IRS. He then stood by as the agency, in a clearly in-your-face move, handed out millions in bonuses to employees.
A short time later, we learned that the Health and Human Services Department allegedly allowed programmers from Belarus, a country which should be considered an enemy, to be involved in producing the objectively not-secure HealthCare.gov web site supporting Obama’s so-called “signature achievement,” the Affordable Care Act. The intelligence community believes that these programmers may have deliberately installed malware, which “could be used to covertly route data from the Obamacare website to foreign locations.” Since the Obamacare computers have access to a myriad of other federal databases, our enemies may literally now have the keys to the kingdom. As of when this column was written, this shocking development had barely made a ripple.
I certainly hope I’m wrong, and I’m not suggesting that we hang our heads and give up. But it sure feels like we are already in the grip of post-constitutional despotism. The best counter-argument right now is that some in Congress have finally determined that passing laws or even discussing legislation while a lawless president is in office is a pointless exercise. Will enough of them figure that out in time to begin taking the country back?
“It’s going to blow up the deficit, won’t create any jobs and will cause all sorts of other problems.”
A hedge-fund manager was lecturing me about the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, better known as the Bush tax cuts. I had been suggesting that this fund close its short positions on technology stocks, and move to a more constructive equity posture. I was getting nowhere.
The fund manager, active in New York Democratic politics, couldn’t see past the policy issues involved. As long as George W. Bush was the U.S. president, this manager’s bias was against long positions. But as an astute market observer noted at the time, “Give me a trillion dollars, and I’ll throw you one hell of a party.”
How did missing that party work out for him? From the pre-Iraq war lows, U.S. markets rallied 96 percent during the next four years. Chalk up another bad investment decision to political bias, emotional involvement and lack of objectivity.
Before Republicans chuckle too hard, the exact same conversations played out six years later. In March 2009, I kept hearing how the newly elected, Kenyan-born, Marxist President Barack Obama was going to be bad for investors. Some 10,000 Dow points ago — literally, the very day of the lows — Michael Boskin, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President George H. W. Bush, penned a Wall Street Journal op-ed titled, “Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow.”
That was 160 percent ago.
This is a favorite theme of mine. The Bush and Obama examples above come from a presentation I have been giving for years now titled, “This is Your Brain on Stocks.” It is an exploration of the various ways your brain operates to undercut your investing prowess. You don’t need a Ph.D. in psychology to figure out that allowing your personal-belief systems, biases and emotions into your investing process is a recipe for underperformance and losses.
I was reminded of these two episodes in the response to a couple of recent Bloomberg View columns. The pushback on “Lessons from the Gold Crash” was fairly astonishing. Zero admission of trading error, and lots of, “you’ll see-just wait” comments. The bias prevented any sort of investor introspection.
It was more acute on our recent climate-change discussion — “Global Warming Battle Is Over Market Share, Not Science.” The point of that column wasn’t about anthropogenic global warming, but about the investment consequences and opportunities. Change was going to lead to potentially enormous opportunities in industries as varied as insurance, travel and hospitality, energy exploration, mining, shipping and transportation, and agriculture. This was lost on the many e-mailers and commenters, many of whom seemed more interested in lecturing me on sunspot activity than in having their portfolios make money.
Hey, someone has to be on the wrong side of the trade. Biased, emotional, politically driven traders are the likeliest contenders.
But it’s more than just the gold bugs and the global-warming denialists who risk their long-term portfolio gains. Consider the following political positions and their investing analogs:
• Fed haters: They believed that the central bank’s zero-interest rate policy and quantitative easing would be useless, have little impact on the economy and/or equity markets.
• Anti-military, pro-pacifist: Don’t care for military spending? Companies such as Alliant Techsystems, Raytheon, Lockheed-Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman have all done well despite sequestration. If you ignored these because of your pacifist bias, you missed out on quite the run in defense and aerospace.
• Hate bailed-out banks? It is easy to be angry at the bailouts, fines and lack of prosecution from the financial crisis. If you chose to not look at these names, you missed huge bounces in American International Group, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. (I plead guilty of this, at least until last year, when we added a financial-sector exchange-traded fund and Bank of America to our client holdings).
• Inflationistas: Perhaps one day, U.S. Treasuries will be a fabulous short trade. But during the past five years, dogmatic claims of imminent hyperinflation led nowhere except to huge losses.
• Obamacare: Regardless of your views on the Affordable Care Act, the health-care industry has done well the past five years — even better since the Supreme Court decision. And in a related sector, the biotech industry has been on fire.
• Genetically modified foods: You may not care for GMOs, but Monsanto has been busy perfecting traditional hybrid breeding without any genetic tinkering. They also bought the Climate Corp., to better capture and resell climate data to farmers.
All of the above examples are situations where the subconscious is doing its damage. Whether its biases or emotions, investors need to be aware of the ways your wetware weighs on your portfolio. (None of these apply to willful decisions like socially conscious investing, or applying Sharia law, or any other decision made with full knowledge of the options).
Once you become aware of how your biases affect your portfolios, you have a choice: You can recognize the impact it has on your thought process and make adjustments, or you can ignore it, and suffer the consequences.
Ideology remains an awfully expensive indulgence. If you feel compelled to waste vast amounts of money, consider instead collectible cars, vintage watches and vacation properties. Your heirs will thank you.
Barry Ritholtz writes about finance, the economy and the business world for Bloomberg View.
Novelist Brigid Delaney is just better than us:
Some foods contain a shocking amount of sugar.
To visualize this, we compared the amount of sugar in foods that are not traditionally thought of as dessert items, like yogurt and apple sauce, to the amount of sugar in a chocolate glazed donut — about 13 grams.
Nutritionists recommend limiting added sugar to 6 teaspoons per day for women and 9 teaspoons per day for men. For reference, 4 grams of sugar equals one teaspoon of granulated sugar.
Added sugar only includes things like cane sugar and high fructose corn syrup that aren’t found naturally in ingredients like fruit and milk. Keep in mind that naturally-occurring sugars and added sugar are combined on nutrition labels as “total sugar.”
(A similar post from Dana Liebelson at Mother Jones inspired our list of high-sugar foods. See their list here.)
Fruit-flavored yogurt = 2 chocolate glazed donuts.
….continue reading & viewing 10 more foods HERE
….continue reading & viewing 10 more foods HERE
