Uncategorized

VIP Bonus Reports – CLICK on to open

keystone playbook

vrforecast2

Loading the player …

 “It’s going to blow up the deficit, won’t create any jobs and will cause all sorts of other problems.”

A hedge-fund manager was lecturing me about the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, better known as the Bush tax cuts. I had been suggesting that this fund close its short positions on technology stocks, and move to a more constructive equity posture. I was getting nowhere.

The fund manager, active in New York Democratic politics, couldn’t see past the policy issues involved. As long as George W. Bush was the U.S. president, this manager’s bias was against long positions. But as an astute market observer noted at the time, “Give me a trillion dollars, and I’ll throw you one hell of a party.”

How did missing that party work out for him? From the pre-Iraq war lows, U.S. markets rallied 96 percent during the next four years. Chalk up another bad investment decision to political bias, emotional involvement and lack of objectivity.

Before Republicans chuckle too hard, the exact same conversations played out six years later. In March 2009, I kept hearing how the newly elected, Kenyan-born, Marxist President Barack Obama was going to be bad for investors. Some 10,000 Dow points ago — literally, the very day of the lows — Michael Boskin, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President George H. W. Bush, penned a Wall Street Journal op-ed titled, “Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow.”

That was 160 percent ago.

This is a favorite theme of mine. The Bush and Obama examples above come from a presentation I have been giving for years now titled, “This is Your Brain on Stocks.” It is an exploration of the various ways your brain operates to undercut your investing prowess. You don’t need a Ph.D. in psychology to figure out that allowing your personal-belief systems, biases and emotions into your investing process is a recipe for underperformance and losses.

I was reminded of these two episodes in the response to a couple of recent Bloomberg View columns. The pushback on “Lessons from the Gold Crash” was fairly astonishing. Zero admission of trading error, and lots of, “you’ll see-just wait” comments. The bias prevented any sort of investor introspection.

It was more acute on our recent climate-change discussion — “Global Warming Battle Is Over Market Share, Not Science.” The point of that column wasn’t about anthropogenic global warming, but about the investment consequences and opportunities. Change was going to lead to potentially enormous opportunities in industries as varied as insurance, travel and hospitality, energy exploration, mining, shipping and transportation, and agriculture. This was lost on the many e-mailers and commenters, many of whom seemed more interested in lecturing me on sunspot activity than in having their portfolios make money.

Hey, someone has to be on the wrong side of the trade. Biased, emotional, politically driven traders are the likeliest contenders.

But it’s more than just the gold bugs and the global-warming denialists who risk their long-term portfolio gains. Consider the following political positions and their investing analogs:

Fed haters: They believed that the central bank’s zero-interest rate policy and quantitative easing would be useless, have little impact on the economy and/or equity markets.

Anti-military, pro-pacifist: Don’t care for military spending? Companies such as Alliant Techsystems, Raytheon, Lockheed-Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman have all done well despite sequestration. If you ignored these because of your pacifist bias, you missed out on quite the run in defense and aerospace.

Hate bailed-out banks? It is easy to be angry at the bailouts, fines and lack of prosecution from the financial crisis. If you chose to not look at these names, you missed huge bounces in American International Group, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. (I plead guilty of this, at least until last year, when we added a financial-sector exchange-traded fund and Bank of America to our client holdings).

Inflationistas: Perhaps one day, U.S. Treasuries will be a fabulous short trade. But during the past five years, dogmatic claims of imminent hyperinflation led nowhere except to huge losses.

Obamacare: Regardless of your views on the Affordable Care Act, the health-care industry has done well the past five years — even better since the Supreme Court decision. And in a related sector, the biotech industry has been on fire.

Genetically modified foods: You may not care for GMOs, but Monsanto has been busy perfecting traditional hybrid breeding without any genetic tinkering. They also bought the Climate Corp., to better capture and resell climate data to farmers.

All of the above examples are situations where the subconscious is doing its damage. Whether its biases or emotions, investors need to be aware of the ways your wetware weighs on your portfolio. (None of these apply to willful decisions like socially conscious investing, or applying Sharia law, or any other decision made with full knowledge of the options).

Once you become aware of how your biases affect your portfolios, you have a choice: You can recognize the impact it has on your thought process and make adjustments, or you can ignore it, and suffer the consequences.

Ideology remains an awfully expensive indulgence. If you feel compelled to waste vast amounts of money, consider instead collectible cars, vintage watches and vacation properties. Your heirs will thank you.

Barry Ritholtz writes about finance, the economy and the business world for Bloomberg View.

 

You, Taxpayer, Come Hither

UnknownNovelist Brigid Delaney is just better than us:

As a member of our creative caste, Ms Delaney wants to capture the buzz and thrum of city life. She wants to inspire “recognition” and, above all, “empathy.” It’s just that she’d prefer not to empathise too much with those non-creative people. Say, by working for a living and paying her own bills. via http://smalldeadanimals.com

You’ll Be Surprised How Many Donuts Worth Of Sugar Are In These 10 Everyday Foods

Some foods contain a shocking amount of sugar.

To visualize this, we compared the amount of sugar in foods that are not traditionally thought of as dessert items, like yogurt and apple sauce, to the amount of sugar in a chocolate glazed donut — about 13 grams.

Nutritionists recommend limiting added sugar to 6 teaspoons per day for women and 9 teaspoons per day for men. For reference, 4 grams of sugar equals one teaspoon of granulated sugar.

Added sugar only includes things like cane sugar and high fructose corn syrup that aren’t found naturally in ingredients like fruit and milk. Keep in mind that naturally-occurring sugars and added sugar are combined on nutrition labels as “total sugar.” 

(A similar post from Dana Liebelson at Mother Jones inspired our list of high-sugar foods. See their list here.)

Fruit-flavored yogurt = 2 chocolate glazed donuts.

….continue reading & viewing 10 more foods HERE

 

yogurt-19

 

….continue reading & viewing 10 more foods HERE

What’s in Millennials’ Wallets? Fewer Credit Cards

Boom-bust cycles leave the millennial generation more wary of credit card debt and more prone to thrifty lifestyles.

UnknownRinged by the posh shops of Beverly Center, Tim Ratliff said no — he didn’t have a credit card. He didn’t need one.

“I just hear so many horror stories about people being in debt,” said Ratliff, 21, who studies psychology at Ohio State University. “When you have a credit card, you feel like you have a lot of money when you don’t.”

Ratliff is like many young adults, emerging data show. His generation, dubbed millennials by academics and marketers, grew up during the boom and bust cycles of the U.S. economy over the last decade and a half — crises that appear to have reshaped their attitudes toward spending and debt.

Millennials, who range from teenagers to people in their early 30s, are more financially cautious than the stereotype of the spendthrift twentysomething, several studies suggest. Many embrace thrift.

Some experts say their habits echo those of another generation, those who came of age during the Great Depression and forged lifelong habits of scrimping and saving — along with a suspicion of financial risk.

“Both generations had a childhood memory of wealth and then saw that wealth yanked out from under them” in or around their teenage years, said Morley Winograd, who has co-written several books on the millennial generation. Though the pain was much more severe during the Depression, “Both generations are very conservative spenders,” Winograd said.

During the economic downturn, while older households ran up credit card debt, younger households whittled it down, a Pew Research Center analysis of federal data found earlier this year.

More young households had no credit card debt in 2010 than was the case in 2001, the data show. Among those who did owe on their credit cards, the median amount fell from roughly $2,500 to less than $1,700.

Maria Garcia, 30, said she gave up her credit card seven years ago. “The fees — they get you,” said Garcia, a mother studying Web development at Los Angeles Harbor College. Her attitude these days is, “If I can do without it, I’ll do without it.”

Other studies hint that Garcia is not alone in that attitude: Young adults were less likely to report using a credit card for everyday expenses than the average adult, a National Foundation for Credit Counseling survey found. Another survey from the Corporate Executive Board, a business advisory company, found that millennials with credit card debt feel worse about it than older adults do.

“They’re keenly aware that the decisions made by their parents, politically and economically, have put them behind the eight ball,” said Michael D’Antonio, co-author of “Spend Shift,” which draws upon an international opinion survey about values and spending. “This is the screwed generation — and I think they know it.”

Many young adults have forgone big purchases. Millennials buy fewer cars and own fewer homes, federal data show.

They cook from scratch more often than older adults, are more likely to try homemade beauty treatments, and are more apt to use coupons to find deals, the market research firm Information Resources Inc. found in a survey last year.

In recent years, Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveal, young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 spent less annually on entertainment than those ages 65 to 74.

Even as they cut back on spending, millennials started saving for retirement earlier than older generations, according to studies by Merrill Edge, Fidelity and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp.

“It’s not that we’re more pious about saving money,” said Nona Willis Aronowitz, a 28-year-old Pipeline fellow with the progressive Roosevelt Institute who writes about generational issues. “It’s more that we have no idea what the future looks like. We’re not sure if we’ll have our jobs in six months.”

Aronowitz added that many millennials who went to college also are burdened by ballooning student loans, making them loath to load up more debt.

Yet despite their thinned wallets, young adults were more likely than any other group — including households making $90,000 or more — to say they were happy with their standard of living, a Gallup survey found two years ago. In another Gallup survey last month, they were more likely than adults ages 30 to 64 to say that their financial situation was good or excellent — which nearly half of them asserted.

In some quarters, thrift has become cool, reflected in the do-it-yourself stylings of Los Angeles hipsters and economical new apps and websites.

“As a kid, if you had a patch on your jeans it wasn’t cool — people made fun of me,” said Jonaya Kemper, a 27-year-old preschool teacher who grows her own vegetables and sews her own sundresses. “Now they ask, ‘Can you teach me?'”

also:

SCIENCE
September 3, 2013 | By Monte Morin
At least 200,000 Americans die needlessly each year due to heart disease, stroke and high blood pressure, and more than half of these deaths occur in people younger than 65, according to a new report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. All of these premature deaths could be prevented by quitting smoking, controlling blood pressure, keeping cholesterol levels in check and taking aspirin when recommended by a physician, public health experts said. “These findings are really striking.

 

test-php-789