QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read the quote that Kenneth Rogoff made about the predictions of the attendees at Davos. He told Bloomberg: “A joke, which I have been telling since the last meeting in Davos, culminates in the fact that the predictions made in Davos are always wrong… No matter how unlikely, the most likely event is the one that is the opposite of the Davos consensus.”

I was talking to a friend who is rather high ranked in a European bank and he said when they really want a forecast they call you. Why do you not speak at Davos? Everyone knows you. So why are you not taking a more prominent role?

Thanks for what you do share with us on the outside.

DY

ANSWER: The Davos meeting is way too public to be important. It’s just a convention for food, drink, and parties. It is not serious. However, the media thinks it is like the Bilderberg meetings. I know people who attend both. They no more can decide the fate of the world than they can predict the weather for their flights home. The majority MUSTalways be wrong. That is how all economies and markets move. Look at the Dow. This is historically the most bearish rally in all of its history. The majority have been addicted to predicting every new high is its last. People keep trying to short it and they get stopped out always buying new highs. The shorts keep feeding the rally – not fresh longs. That is why the majority of people are NOT in this market.

The majority must ALWAYS BE WRONG and that goes for both Davos and Bilderberg meetings. For years, being perhaps the largest institutional adviser covering the world, my clients NEVER wanted to see our forecasts on the front page of the WSJ when they were paying for that info. The people who spout out their forecasts to everyone who will listen are trolling for business. If you have the business, you do not need to troll.

There is never any point in appearing publicly at Davos or the Bilderberg meetings to hand out advise for free when they will not listen anyhow until there is a crisis. So you cannot stop or alter the trend for no politician will change course until compelled to do so. Hence, it would be just a waste of time. When such time comes I would consider speaking at either in the midst of a crisis for that will be the only time they would listen. I have always regarded myself as a crisis manager because nobody will listen to prevent a crisis. They always hate to let go of power.

Portfolio manager Dr. James Thorne has a unique ability to analyze the big macro global trends and then find specific stocks that will benefit. Michael asks James about his latest assessments.

…also Mike’s Weekend Editorial: A Stick in the Eye at Tax Time

The S&P 500 is in the process of forming a weekly swing low.

…also from March 31st:

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

“Reader, I wish thee Health, Wealth, Happiness, And may kind Heaven thy Year’s Industry bless.“

                                                                                                                                                 – Ben Franklin

I originally thought it would be an easy task to write this week’s article since I only had to come up with one thing; the single most important lesson I learned in my 30 years in business. However, I soon learned how hard a task that really was, as there are so many important lessons I have learned during my own journey.

I know that persistence, the unwavering dedication to a task, is critical in achieving anything of note. Character development is key to building the traits necessary to persevere.  Education, both formal and informal, is absolutely paramount in building a foundation from which all other skills can be developed. Communications, which is the one most important skill that helped me build a great career in business.  All of those are worthy candidates for the most important lesson learned.

However, none of them can come close to what I believe is the single most important lesson I learned; that is the importance of making COURAGE in making decisions and taking actions. If I am 100% truthful with myself, the only times I really massively excelled in my career was when I ventured far outside my comfort zone. It was the time I was most frightened, anixous and filled with fear about the outcome of a venture, but pressed ahead against the obstacles anyways. For instance, I quit a high paying job as a young manager one time when newly married with a child along the way, only to get recruited within one week to a much, much better position.  I turned down the recruiters first offer, even though I had given up our apartment and was living in my inlaws basement suite, only to get a much better offer. Another time, I took my first executive job with 50% of the salary paid in shares wondering if I would make it, only to have the shares accelerate significantly in value. Most times I pushed the envelope of my personal appetite for fear, I seem to come out ahead. Not always, but more often than not. It was courage that made the difference.

While business has many known and proven rules, it is the bold action-taking the separates the winners from the losers, or from the mere survivors. Taking bold action requires faith in yourself that you will overcome any difficulty, that you are bigger than your problems, that you have powers beyond the natural, and finally, that if you do fail temporarily, you will come back stronger than every. Courage is not being reckless since it still requires planning, risk mitigation and the application of proven business principles. However, there comes a time when all the planning is done, the risks are mitigated and you know the principles are sound, the only thing left to do is act. The bolder the action the bigger the courage required!

Step out of your comfort zone and start taking the action necessary today to make a bigger difference in your life. Seize opportunities around you, don’t hold back and wait for circumstances to be just right. Focus on whatever resources you have in front of you now and build the type of life, business and wealth you know you can build and would be proud to accomplish.

By Eamonn Percy http://www.percygroup.ca