Stocks & Equities

Market Forecast

The stock market had a lot to contend with yesterday and it didn’t contend very well.

DOW                                                         – 185 on 2350 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                                    – 37 on 1350 net declines

TSX                                                          -205 on 1,166 declines

SHORT TERM TREND                       Bearish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND       Bearish

     After an up opening helped by better than expected earnings from Intel, it was downhill from there. Violence in Europe over austerity. Renewed tensions in the Middle East after a top Hamas official was killed by the Israelis, prompting Egypt to recall its ambassador.

     Also hurting was a hard line on taxes taken by Obama in an exercise of brinksmanship.

     Regarding Europe. I know exactly what has to be done. They need to start manufacturing things again and return to growth. Everything is now made in China. But, just like the U.S., they have bought into the “free trade” nonsense that is pushed by economists who happen to be wrong about almost everything. Sorry. I had to get that out.

     Germany is the only country that still makes things in Europe and curiously enough they have the only really healthy economy.

     Fourteen day RSI is oversold for the first time since the major low in early June (arrows), but let’s not jump the gun. We still have a pattern of lower lows and lower highs.

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TORONTO EXCHANGE:  Toronto was hit for a whopping 205 points. This will change our posture.

GOLD: Gold was up $2.

BONDS: Bonds were marginally lower.

THE REST: The dollar was higher again. Gold, silver and crude oil were up. Copper was lower.    

BOTTOM LINE:  

Our intermediate term systems are on a sell signal.

System 2 traders We had a buy. On Thursday buy the E-mini S&P 500 and or the SSO at the open, but do not pay more than 1353.00 for the former and no more than 54.38 for the latter. If it’s trading up in the morning, wait for it to come to you. The market almost always trades lower at some point the day after a session like this.

System 7 traders are in cash. Stay there on Thursday.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

 Retail sales was down 0.3%, more than the expected drop of 0.1%. PPI was negative 0.2%. the consensus was plus 0.2%. On Thursday we get CPI, initial claims, the Empire State index, Philadelphia Fed and oil inventories.

————————————————————————————-

We’re on a buy for bonds as of October 23.

We’re on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the euro as of November 2.                

We’re on buy for gold as of November 8.              

We’re on a buy for silver as of November 8.

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of September 25.        

We’re on a sell for Copper as of October 12.    

We’re moving back to a sell for the Toronto Stock Exchange TSX as of today November 14.

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INDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

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Bond Maven: “Beware of Falling Bond Prices”

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Bonds have enjoyed a huge rally since the onset of the financial crisis four years ago, as investors have sought safety in Treasurys and yield in other fixed-income-market sectors.

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But many don’t realize they’re actually taking some risk, John Boritzke, director of tax-exempt fixed income at BMO Global Asset Management says.

What goes up generally goes down, and if you’re investing in bonds through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds, you could suffer a loss of principal.

The downside risk is “a bit worrisome,” Boritzke says. “Bond investors have not had to suffer price declines. That experience may be new to people who have become more aggressive.”

While he doesn’t see a bubble in the bond market as a whole, “if there’s a bubble in part of the market it’s that there’s way too much money flowing into high-yield [junk bonds],” Boritzke says. 

“Some of the deals being priced into the market are becoming too aggressive.”

So far defaults have been low following the financial crisis. But the fiscal cliff could change that, Boritzke says. “We don’t have a lot of room for error in terms of [gross domestic product].”

With interest rates near record lows, corporate bond issuance is on pace for a record high this year. 

“There’s been lots of new issuance,” William Larkin of Cabot Money Management tells Bloomberg. “At some point this is going to dry up, as people become more cautious and demand starts to fall.”

…..read more Flight to Safety in Bonds May Actually Mean More Risk

5 Minute Forecast

“Brevity is the soul of wit,” wrote Shakespeare long ago…and we’re inclined to agree. If there’s one thing lacking in your daily deluge of e-mails, financial media, and other distractions, it’s brief, concise judgment.

  • “Dr. Doom” and Jonas Elmerraji weigh in on Greece, the fiscal cliff and the S&P… disagreements arise, but one wants you to help him prove his point…
  • Inquiries on gold: Why not gold ask a prime minister and a Republican senator… How much gold would it take asks a U.S. debt calculator…
  • Patrick Cox arrives on the scene with another “forehead slapper”… 15 years in the making, one “blueberry cure” is set to change millions of lives…
  • One unforeseen consequence of not voting… readers weigh in… and argue… blood, sweat and tears or grumbling, moping and whining? You decide… and more!

z0000  “I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece,” our old friend Marc Faber offered as an alternative explanation for the market’s recent malaise to CNBC’s Squawk Box yesterday.

“I don’t think the markets are going down because of the ‘fiscal cliff,’” he added, “because there won’t be a ‘fiscal cliff.

“The market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint,” Mr. Faber dolefully explains, “the global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the reason why stocks, from the highs of September of 1,470 on the S&P, will drop at least 20%, in my view.”

z0210 “How much gold,” the Political Calculations blog wonders, “would the U.S. Treasury have to pay out from the nation’s bullion depository at Fort Knox to fully pay off the national debt of $16.222 trillion (as of 1 November 2012)?”

For fun, let’s pretend that the U.S. does plan on paying back the national debt… and in gold.

Again, for fun.

How much would it take? As of Nov. 1, Political Calculations writes, it would take “a solid gold cube that is nearly 80 feet tall by 80 feet long by 80 feet wide. Transporting all that gold would require over 431 of those standard 20-foot-long shipping containers.”

There’s a problem: If you add up all gold plucked out of the Earth, it makes up a cube only 66.1 feet by 66.1 feet by 66.1 feet… and fills only 249 shipping containers.

And Obama’s contribution since taking office? $5.595 trillion, or a cube 55.7 feet by 55.7 feet by 55.7 feet, or 60% of the world’s recorded gold.

…..read all items from 0;00 – 5:00 HERE

 

 

 

What Now….

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Despite the seemingly never-ending bear raids from you know who (space helmets on Captain Video), gold is once again positioned to challenge stiff resistance in the $1,800 area. Two consecutive closes above its 50-Day M.A. would do the trick IMHO

Obama Repeat Performance?

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I’ve been hearing how good Obama was for the stock and bond market. Not surprised thanks to knowing much of the financial world are members of the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd. But here’s how major financial assets really did during the first go around?

Like I said right after the election, $2,000 gold is now cheap.

A Quote From Czech

 

This quote came from the Czech Republic . Someone over there has it figured out. It was translated into English from an article in the Prague newspaper Prager Zeitungon:

“The danger to America is not Barack Obama, but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America . Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those who made him their president.”

35 Thoughts For Today

 

1 – I’d kill for a Nobel Peace Prize.

2 – Borrow money from pessimists — they don’t expect it back.

3 – Half the people you know are below average.

4 – 99% of lawyers give the rest a bad name.

5 – 82.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

6 – A conscience is what hurts when all your other parts feel so good.

7 – A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory.

8 – If you want the rainbow, you got to put up with the rain.

9 – All those who believe in psycho kinesis, raise my hand.

10 – The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

11 – I almost had a psychic girlfriend, …… but she left me before we met.

12 – OK, so what’s the speed of dark?

13 – How do you tell when you’re out of invisible ink?

14 – If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.

15 – Depression is merely anger without enthusiasm.

16 – When everything is coming your way, you’re in the wrong lane.

17 – Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy.

18 – Hard work pays off in the future; laziness pays off now.

19 – I intend to live forever… so far, so good.

20 – If Barbie is so popular, why do you have to buy her friends?

21 – Eagles may soar, but weasels don’t get sucked into jet engines.

22 – What happens if you get scared half to death twice?

23 – My mechanic told me, “I couldn’t repair your brakes, so I made your horn louder.”

24 – Why do psychics have to ask you for your name.

25 – If at first you don’t succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried.

26 – A conclusion is the place where you got tired of thinking.

27 – Experience is something you don’t get until just after you need it.

28 – The hardness of the butter is proportional to the softness of the bread.

29 – To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism; to steal from many is research.

30 – The problem with the gene pool is that there is no lifeguard.

31 – The sooner you fall behind, the more time you’ll have to catch up.

32 – The colder the x-ray table, the more of your body is required to be on

it.

33 – Everyone has a photographic memory; some just don’t have film.

34 – If at first you don’t succeed, skydiving is not for you.

35 – If your car could travel at the speed of light, would your headlights work?

ABOUT PETER GRANDICH

Founder, Grandich Publications, LLC. and Grandich.com
home of the internationally-followed blog, The Grandich Letter

Founder, Trinity Financial Sports & Entertainment Management Co., LLC

Though he never finished high school, Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with no formal education or training and within three years was appointed Vice President of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would go on to hold positions as a Market Strategist, portfolio manager for four hedgefunds and a mutual fund that bared his name.

His abilities has resulted in hundreds of media interviews including GMA, Neil Cavuto’s Your World on Fox News, The Kudlow Report on CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. He’s spoken at investment conferences around the globe, edited numerous investment newsletters, and is one of the more sought after commentators.

Grandich is the founder of Grandich.com and Grandich Publications, LLC, and is editor of The Grandich Letter which was first published in 1984. On his internationally-followed blog, he comments daily about the world’s economies and financial markets and posts his views on social and political topics.  He also blogs about a variety of timely subjects of general interest and interweaves his unique brand of humor and every-man “Grandichism” expressions with his experience gained from more than 25 years in and around Wall Street. The result is an insightful and intuitive look at business, finances and the world, set in a vernacular that just about anyone can understand. In his first year, Grandich’s wildly-popular blog had more than one million views. Grandich also provides a variety of services to publicly-held corporations on a compensation basis.

Grandich’s autobiography, Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid, was publiched in fall 2011.

He is the also the founder of Trinity Financial Sports & Entertainment Management Co. [www.TrinityFSEM.com], a firm with a Christian perspective which he started in 2001 with former NY Giant and two-time Super Bowl champion Lee Rouson.  The firm offers services to celebrities, athletes and average folks.  Peter Grandich is a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, and a long-standing member of The New York Society of Security Analysts and The Society of Quantitative Analysts.

Grandich is also very active in Christian sports ministries including the Fellowship of Christian Athletes and Athletes in Action.

He resides in New Jersey with his wife Mary and daughter Tara.

 

 

 

Skeptical Investor – Special To Mike Campbell’s MoneyTalks

Produced by McIver Wealth Management Consulting Group

Mark Jasayko, CFA,MBA, Portfolio Manager with McIver Wealth Management of Richardson GMP in Vancouver.

www.McIverWealth.com

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