Bonds & Interest Rates
With the possible exception of the New York Times’ editorial board (and the cast of The Jersey Shore), everyone on the planet understood that the United States Government needs to cut spending, increase taxes, or both. Instead, after months of political posturing and hand wringing, the Federal Government has just delivered the exact opposite, a deal that increases spending and decreases taxes. The move lays bare the emptiness of budget legislation, which can be dismantled far easier than it can be constructed.
One question that should be now asked is whether Moody’s Research will finally join S&P in downgrading the Treasury debt of the United States. After the Budget Control Act of 2011 (which resulted from the Debt Ceiling drama) Moody’s extended its Aaa rating, saying in an August 8 statement:
“…last week’s Budget Control Act was positive for the credit of the United States…. We expect the economic recovery will continue and additional budget deficit reduction initiatives will be put in place by 2013. The political parties now appear to share similar deficit reduction objectives.”
Now that Moody’s has been proven wrong, and the straight jacket that Congress designed for itself has been shown to be illusory (as I always claimed it was), will the rating agency revisit its decision and downgrade the United States? Given the political backlash that greeted S&P’s downgrade in 2011, I doubt that such a move is forthcoming.
For now, the real budget negotiations have been supposedly pushed later into 2013, when the debt ceiling will be confronted anew. But who can really expect anything of substance? The latest deal emerged from a Congress that is nearly two years removed from the next election. As a result, Congressmen were as insulated from political pressures as they could ever expect to be. Nevertheless, they still chose political expediency over sound policy. If Congressional leadership (an oxymoron that should join the ranks of “jumbo shrimp” and “definite maybe”) could not put the national interest in front of political interests now, why would anyone expect them to do so later? They will continue to ignore our fiscal problems until a currency crisis forces their hand. I expect deficits to approach $2 trillion annually before Obama leaves office. Unfortunately, at that point the solutions would be far more draconian than anything economists and politicians are currently considering.
In light of the extensions of the popular middle class tax rates, the loudly trumpeted tax increases on those individuals making more than $400,000 (and couples making more than $450,000) will not be enough to translate into higher tax revenues. Instead they will result in perhaps $60 billion per year in new revenue to the Federal government that will be more than offset by the new spending announced in the agreement. In fact, with the likely passage of the $60 billion Hurricane Sandy aid package, it will have taken Congress less than one week to spend all of the projected revenue.
But the tax increases will push many individuals in high tax states like California and New York into paying more than 50% of their income in taxes. While many economists are cautioning that higher taxes on the wealthy will take a bite out of spending, in my opinion it is more likely to result in lower business investment, which is far more detrimental to the economy. When faced with diminishing discretionary income, most rich people would sooner cut back on savings and investment than they would on health care, education, home improvements and vacations.
But it should be clear that the rate increases are just the opening crescendo in a symphony of tax hikes on the nation’s entrepreneurial class. President Obama has recently stated that he will consider needed cuts in spending and entitlement programs only if they are coupled with additional tax increases on the wealthy. In other words, as far as the President is concerned, the hikes included in the budget agreement that was just passed didn’t count for anything.
It cannot, or should not, be denied that Washington’s latest fig leaf will have a major impact on the markets. The New Year’s “relief rally” is understandable given the clear implications that the government will simply print its way out of trouble for as long as it can. In the past, fiscal profligacy was held in check by investors who would sell bonds and push interest rates higher whenever it appeared that the government was not serious about national solvency. But with the Federal Reserve now buying the vast majority of U.S. government debt, no such roadblock exists. With monetary and fiscal stimulus pushing up stock and bond prices, and no immediate fear of a rally-killing spike in interest rates, there is no reason to stay on the sidelines. Markets are now driven by stimulus, not fundamentals, and the stimulus is firmly at the wheel. (For more on this – see the article in the January edition ofEuro Pacific’s Global Investment Newsletter). But it is important to look at the nature of the rally. Most significantly we would bring investors’ attention to the increase in gold and oil and other assets that are expected to outperform in an inflationary economy. Our new Newsletter edition also includes an analysis of some of the more promising overseas markets.
But by taking the nominal risk out of investing, the government is insuring that the risks to the U.S. economy will grow exponentially. We are now – and will remain – a debt-fueled economy for as long as the rest of the world permits this to continue. But this is no way to create real, sustainable economic growth. On the contrary, it will simply permit the growth of government, the depletion of economic vitality, and ultimately the collapse of the U.S. dollar.
In the meantime, President Obama and Congressional leaders will take credit for a tax cut that is in reality a huge tax increase in disguise. Government spending is the real source of taxpayers’ pain and it is only a matter of time before the bill comes due in the form of inflation. See our Newsletter for fresh analysis as to why inflation may already be higher than you think. Because the deficits will grow even larger, more purchasing power will be lost in this manner than would have been lost had all the Bush tax cuts been allowed to expire. In addition, though entitlement cuts were taken off the table, the real value of benefits could be slashed, as cost of living adjustments fail to keep up with skyrocketing consumer prices. That’s a Fiscal Cliff that will not be so easy to avoid.
A year ago, Vancouver portfolio managers Mark Jasayko and Neil McIver correctly forecast the direction of nine of 10 major financial indicators related to investing and the economy. While they missed the decrease in U.S. interest rates, they accurately predicted the path of stock markets, gold and oil prices, among other measures. At the risk of besmirching their sterling track record, they take on the challenge again, making prognostications about 2013 against the backdrop of the United States’ and Europe’s perilous economies, fiscal cliffs and slowing Asian growth.
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CANADIAN STOCK MARKET: Flat We anticipated a flat performance for the Canadian stock market in 2012. Despite a hot start followed by a mid-year dip, the year was indeed flat for Canadian equities. Resource demand from China did moderate as forecast and we expect that to continue into 2013, limiting the upside for stocks. Canada still has the foundation of strong financial institutions and reserves of energy and materials that are the envy of the world. However, with global economic |
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growth stuck in neutral, we will have to wait awhile until our assets once again attract premium valuations. The Canadian market as a whole is trading close to fair value. Flat performance from now until the end of 2013 is still a reasonable expectation. AMERICAN STOCK MARKET: Flat — weak start, strong finish We foresaw U.S. stocks benefiting because of the fourth year of the presidential cycle and because of more central bank liquidity. All that came true. However, the first year of the four-year presidential cycle is historically not great, and investors and the economy are becoming more immune to the zero interest rate policy and increased money printing from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Also, there will be a slight trend toward austerity for the first time in decades, resulting from the aftermath of the fiscal cliff and more bitter negotiations surrounding the increase of the debt ceiling limit. This isn’t good news for the U.S. economy, and stocks will have a tough time. We expect a mostly flat year in U.S. stocks, perhaps with a difficult first six months followed by a recovery in the second half. |
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U.S. DOLLAR: Higher We had expected a good year for the U.S. dollar compared to the other major currencies because of its safe haven status. However, anxiety over the fiscal mess in Europe and the slowdown in China was not enough to drive the U.S. dollar higher over the entire 12 months of 2012, even though it did jump by about five per cent in the middle of the year. Since these concerns can’t be swept under the rug indefinitely, the U.S. dollar should benefit from its safe haven status in 2013. In addition, the relative increase in austerity following the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling debates will make the U.S. dollar look more attractive to foreign investors. Increased taxes and reduced spending can make any currency look good. CANADIAN DOLLAR: Slightly lower Because of the massive U.S.-Canadian trade flows, we felt the Canadian dollar would remain range bound in 2012 between 95 cents and par relative to the U.S. dollar if there was no global financial panic to drive the U.S. dollar significantly higher. The Canadian dollar remained pretty close to our expected range, fluctuating between 96 and 103 cents. If there is heightened eurozone anxiety in 2013 and more austerity in the U.S., the Canadian dollar could |
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approach 90 cents, but should hold in a range between 90 cents and par. INTEREST RATES: Higher This is the one forecast that has stymied us. As we expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank accelerated their liquidity and money printing in 2012. However, the Fed has done a very good job at keeping inflation expectations low. Enough investors are giving them the benefit of the doubt that they will be able to reverse the trillions of dollars of liquidity pumped into the economy once growth gets going again. If inflation expectations are held in check, interest rates stay low. However, the herculean effort of managing inflation expectations will eventually begin to show cracks. We don’t think the Fed can fully reverse the liquidity because of pressure from citizens and politicians who fear the economic losses that would result. As a result, we should see a slow crawl upward in interest rates in 2013 as more investors acknowledge this reality. An increase of half a percentage point won’t constitute a big move up, but considering how low rates are, half a per cent will have a noticeable impact. GOLD: Higher Our 2010 forecast was for $1,500 US an ounce. Our 2011 forecast was for $1,700. Our forecast for 2012 was for $1,900, and while it didn’t reach that, it nudged $1,800 in October and ended the year at almost $1,700. Our forecast for 2013 is $1,900. We still don’t have faith that politicians and policy-makers have the skill to find a clean solution for the overhang of burdensome debt in the world. However, we should not underestimate their ability to buy time and put on brave faces. Enough of the marketplace has been seduced by this, which has kept a lid on the gold price. That said, the government budgets of all the developed countries and the monetary policies of all developed and emerging countries are still pointing in the direction of higher future gold prices. Inflation is still the eventual destination, and there has not been a single policy change over the last year to suggest otherwise. Despite a relatively lacklustre year, gold is now up for 12 years in a row. But, over that period, it still lags behind the growth in government debt. CRUDE OIL: Flat |
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For 2012, we forecast a range for oil (West Texas Intermediate) between $90 to $100 with the potential for a $5 to $10 unsustainable spike due to Mideast tensions and short-term supply issues. We were almost spot on with this, although the price fell to just below $90 as the end of the year approached. Sluggish global economic growth will make 2013 look almost the same as 2012. NATURAL GAS: Flat Excess supply at the end of last year led us to forecast the price of natural gas would continue to fall, and it did. With even more future supply coming from fracking and shale oil gas, the price should remain flat through 2013. The long-term price chart indicates the price is levelling out but there is no upside catalyst for the foreseeable future.
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Creating and sustaining a nation of zombies is expensive.
Large sections of the US population have been turned into zombies. Retirees. Medicare dependents. Food stamp recipients. Disabled people. They are not necessarily bad people. They are not necessarily dishonest or lazy. But rather than add to wealth, they consume it. And when you have too many of them, your society consumes more wealth than it produces and you are on the road to The Downside.
But the feds are not only creating individual zombies, they are also creating corporatezombies. An obvious example: “green” energy. Without subsidies, loan guarantees, tax benefits and direct giveaways, the industry as we know it would not exist. Nor would the ethanol industry in the Midwest. Nor the security industry in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC.
The financial industry too, as we know it, would not exist either. Much of it would have been swept away in the financial storm of 2008-09. That story is well-known, but not well understood. Most people believe the authorities acted heroically, saving the nation from a depression. But what the authorities really did was to take the public’s money and give it to cronies on Wall Street in order to prevent them from suffering the losses they deserved. The government transferred nearly $2 trillion in various forms from the public purse to the pockets of the financial industry. With that kind of backing, most of the old investment firms survived. The new ones that might have replaced them never saw the light of day.
Industries need to be sustained by the government when they cannot sustain themselves. This is practically the definition of “malinvestment” — putting capital and energy into investments that don’t pay off. When an industry is only profitable with government backing it means that the industry uses resources — labor, energy, raw materials — and turns them into finished products that are worth less than the inputs required to make them. The more of these zombie industries the government supports, the poorer the society becomes.
The Single Best Reason to Feel Good About America’s “Collapse”
What could possibly be the good news about America’s next financial meltdown?
I urge you to watch this eye-popping video.
You’ll see why the years ahead could actually be the richest, happiest, and healthiest years of your life… not just in spite of the impending new financial crisis, but because of it.
If that seems strange to you, click here to see why for yourself.
Before the French Revolution, favored groups were able to secure special privileges and monopolies giving them the right to income. For example, the people from whom we bought our first house in France had a monopoly on the importation of tobacco from the New World. I don’t know who granted this monopoly, but typically it was the monarchy. And typically, such monopolies were given away either to appease a potential adversary or simply to raise cash for the crown by selling off a stream of future income. “Rentier” is a French word that has leaked into English. It doesn’t mean zombie literally, but it describes people who have found a way to exploit the system for their own benefit — people who have legal entitlements to income streams. In other words, “rentier” describes a class of folks who contribute absolutely nothing to national prosperity — zombies.
The French crown was always short of funds. It found it could raise substantial sums by selling the right to earn a “rent.” It might sell the right to collect tolls on a highway or a river, for example. Or it might sell the right to collect taxes (thereby getting its own tax revenue up-front and letting the rentier deal with the hazards of collection).
Any official document needed an official stamp. Naturally, the crown sold off the right to stamp documents. If you wanted to make a business deal, buy or sell land, or get married, you had to pay the person with the stamp.
Over time, the rentier class grew larger and harder to support. More and more of the kingdom’s energy went to support what was essentially a group of parasites who produced nothing. This is part of the explanation for the French Revolution. The system became so inefficient and was made so fragile by waste that a relatively minor setback — a couple years of bad harvests — caused widespread hunger and revolt.
In modern, developed societies “rents” come in many forms. They are often granted to favored groups in exchange for political support. Old people vote, for example. Political parties seek their votes by promising ever-larger health and retirement benefits. Rich people make campaign contributions. Politicians typically grant them favors too.
By the close of 2012, there were zombies everywhere. Throw a cream pie from almost any street-corner and you were almost certain to hit one in the face. If the street-corner were in Washington, DC, you’d probably hit two or three of them.
A recent report in The Wall Street Journal confirmed that zombies don’t work very hard. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been compiling detailed data on how people use their time. Researchers tracked how many hours people slept, ate, watched TV and worked. And guess what? They found that federal government employees put in 3.8 fewer 40-hour weeks than employees in the private sector. Here, the cost of zombification is clear: if the zombies were forced to work the same hours as people in the private sector, the government would save $130 billion a year.
Meanwhile, over in the pentagon, R. Jeffrey Smith had his eye on the zombies too:
Of the many facts that have come to light in the scandal involving former CIA director David H. Petraeus, among the most curious was that during his days as a four-star general, he was once escorted by 28 police motorcycles as he traveled from his Central Command headquarters in Tampa to socialite Jill Kelley’s mansion. Although most of his trips did not involve a presidential-size convoy, the scandal has prompted new scrutiny of the imperial trappings that come with a senior general’s lifestyle.
The commanders who lead the nation’s military services and those who oversee troops around the world enjoy an array of perquisites befitting a billionaire, including executive jets, palatial homes, drivers, security guards and aides to carry their bags, press their uniforms and track their schedules in 10-minute increments. Their food is prepared by gourmet chefs. If they want music with their dinner parties, their staff can summon a string quartet or a choir.
The elite regional commanders who preside over large swaths of the planet don’t have to settle for Gulfstream V jets. They each have a C-40, the military equivalent of a Boeing 737, some of which are configured with beds.
And then, even after they retire…the zombies keep feeding off the productive sector:
Updating a 2010 Boston Globe report that documented the practice, CREW found that over the last three years, 70 percent of the 108 three-and-four star generals and admirals who retired “took jobs with defense contractors or consultants.”
As Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., put it during a 2009 hearing on Obama’s nomination of former Raytheon executive William Lynn to become the deputy secretary of defense, “it’s an incestuous business, what’s going on in terms of the defense contractors and the Pentagon and the highest levels of our military.”
During the Presidential campaign, Mitt Romney mentioned that 47% of American households now receive some form of support from the government. In a better democracy, none of those people should vote. They all have a conflict of interest. They should admit that they find it difficult to separate their own personal interests from those of the nation and abstain from casting a ballot. Instead, they “vote their own pocketbooks” — usually coming down on the side of diverting more resources from the productive sector to their own personal consumption.
The zombies corrupt the system. The march to Stalingrad continues. And the Downside takes over.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning
Passing of the Fiscal Cliff issue reduced a major uncertainty in equity markets and equity prices responded accordingly.Political issues impacting equity markets likely will calm down between now and Inauguration Day. Thereafter, major issues including tax reform, the end of sequestration and the debt ceiling raise their “ugly heads”. The Fiscal Cliff resolved some of the easy political issues. Now, the hard part of political compromise begins and it will not be pretty.
Fourth quarter earnings reports start to become a focus this week. Reports start to trickle in. Consensus is an increase on a year-over-year basis of 6.0% for S&P 500 companies and a 3.0% increase for the Dow Jones Industrial Average companies. CEOs of major companies like to give good news to shareholders when they release fourth quarter and annual results (share splits, share buy backs, etc.) as well as an encouraging outlook for the following year. However, given the current state of political instability in the U.S., outlook comments may be less favourable this year. Traders will watch closely to reactions to these reports.
Beyond the political crisis during the next three months, equity market prospects are much more attractive assuming a reasonable political settlement is reached. Corporation on both sides of the border continue to hold large cash positions and are waiting for political stability before making major commitment to capital spending.
An added positive factor for equity markets beyond the first quarter of 2013 is news from the Federal Reserve that $85 billion asset purchases by the Fed may end before the end of 2013. The news quickly pressured Treasury prices and raised the likelihood that long term Treasury prices have passed their peak. A downtrend in bond prices as the year progresses will prompt investors to switch from bonds to equities. Following is a link to a report released on www.cnbc.com over the weekend entitled, “Why Goldman thinks you should dump bonds now”. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100355153
History shows that the weakest three month period for U.S. equity market is the three month period in the year after a U.S. president is elected. This the period when the President tries to implement the most difficult programs promised prior to the election. History is repeating.
Technical analysts are warning about a possible significant correction in the first quarter. Following is a link to a comment released late Thursday by Mary Ann Bartels, Merrill Lynch’s technical analyst: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100353125
Economic reports this will have limited impact on the market.
Short and medium term technical indicators for most equity market and sector indices show that prices currently are intermediate overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Santa Claus was generous this year to investors who held during the December 15th to January 6th classic Santa Claus rally period. However, Santa Claus exited the scene on Friday.
Sectors with positive seasonality at this time of year continue to outperform the S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Indexincluding Agriculture, Forest Product equities, Industrials, Semiconductors, Biotech, Europe, Copper and Base Metals. However, most of these sectors reach a short term peak in the first half of January. Sector rotation became apparent late last week when new sectors such as energy began to show outperformance for the first time in months.
The Bottom Line
The “hoped for” short term stock market spurt triggered by a favourable resolution of the Fiscal Cliff has provided an opportunity to take profits on strength on a wide variety of seasonal trades (e.g. agriculture, technology, semiconductors, biotech) and to rotate into other sectors that have a history of outperformance during the January to April period (e.g. energy, platinum, copper).
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Following is an example:
Ten year seasonality study on the TSX Energy Index
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…….see 45 more charts and analysis on Don’s Monday Report HERE


The year 2012 was highlighted by U.S. election politics. The fourth year of the presidential cycle is usually a good year for stocks, and that was the case for 2012. As President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney filled the headlines with their positive economic oratory and hope for the future, the mood of investors brightened. The U.S. election was also the perfect diversion from anxiety over the continued fiscal erosion in Europe. Although nothing has improved in Europe, promises of never-ending bailouts (punctuated by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” speech in August) soothed investors in eurozone bonds. Although the markets experienced some late-year fiscal cliff-induced volatility, the pledge by the U.S. Federal Reserve to double the rate of money printing helped to limit the downside. Last year saw more economic Band-Aid solutions similar to those applied in the previous few years. The markets in 2013 will depend on how well those Band-Aids hold.


