Stocks & Equities

Key Charts, Panic, Bullion & The Ongoing Collapse

                            Panic                                                     The Dow Jones Industrial Average

dow“As of (wednesday), the Dow has been up 12 out of 14 sessions. The market is either close to exhaustion or the short sellers are near panic.  The shorts must be thinking at this point that this market is never going to go down. With that brand of thinking, the shorts must be near panic.” 

The 89 year old Russell also observed:  “You know, America is different from most Asian nations in that America has little use for older people.  For instance, in China, older people are revered.  Though older people may lack “hipness” and technical knowledge, they make up for their ignorance with wisdom.

I look back and I have seen and talked to Billie Holiday, Marlon Brando, Marilyn Monroe, and Janis Joplin.  I have seen, combined, what few other living people have seen.  I’ve seen the rotting fruit in California during the Great Depression, I’ve seen the planes dropping bombs over Europe, I saw the parade through New York when people opened their windows and shouted “Hooray for Happy Hoover.”  I’ve seen and gone through a lot, and as a result I believe I do have a small portion of wisdom and a good memory.” – Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters (Russell was a Bombardier in WW11 -Ed)

           

Key Charts, Propaganda, Gold, Silver & The Ongoing Collapse

by Egon von Greyerz,  founder of Matterhorn Asset Management

This Swiss master sent King World News “two tremendous charts and gave one of his most powerful interviews ever”.

 …..read the article & view those charts HERE

Pivotal Events

“The World’s Bubble Economy Getting Bubblier”

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Market Buzz – Why You Should Invest in Dividend/Growth Stocks

Dividends have a long history of providing returns to intelligent investors. Only in the last 60 years, has investing for stock price appreciation surpassed dividends as a key source of return in the eyes of the common investor. Recent market volatility however, has caused most players in the market to rethink their investing strategy and in many cases, re-embrace the wealth-building power of dividend investing. For those who are not already aware of fundamental benefits of dividend investing, we have provided four important arguments below.

Dividend Stocks Have Outperformed Non-Dividend Stocks over the Long Term

A very common misconception with the investing public is that dividend stocks provide a lower, albeit safer, return on investment. This has helped dividend stocks earn an ill-conceived reputation for being boring. The facts however, present a completely different picture – dividend stocks actually outperform non-dividend stocks by a significant margin over the long term.

The graph below (from RBC Capital Markets) clearly illustrates that over a 20 year time horizon, dividend growth stocks and dividend payers generated an average total return of 12.2% and 10.5% per year compared to 6.9% for the overall TSX index and only 1.6% for non-dividend paying stocks. Additional research we have studied provides the same conclusion – that dividend stock should form the core of any investor’s portfolio.

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Dividend Stocks Can Pay Investor’s for Being Patient – You Get Paid as You Wait

Patience is a virtue when it comes to investing, but dividends give investors a reason to be patient, even when the market is not performing. You can wait years for a good company to complete their growth plans, become accepted by the market, or to rise out of a downturn. If they are not issuing a dividend however, you may not be making a return. But if you are being paid a dividend, you are being paid to be patient. If the company struggles with any kind of market head winds, you are continuing to earn a real return on your investment.

Dividends Can Help to Provide Price Support for the Stock during Bear’ Markets

A regular and safe dividend can also provide price support for a company’s stock. During a market downturn, a good company can be punished even if the financials remain intact. If the market is bearish, investors can lose short-term reasons to own non-dividend stocks. In such circumstances, the stock price will typically fall. Why own a stock in the short term if the market is against you? But a company with a stable or growing dividend presents a very compelling reason for ownership – even in a bear market – the more compelling the reason, the more stable the company’s stock price.

Dividend Stocks Can Provide Investors with Growth as Well as Regular Cash Flow

Another common misconception about dividend stocks is that they are pure yield investments – meaning that while they provide a dividend, they also provide little or no potential for stock price appreciation. Once again, this notion is false. There are select opportunities in the market that not only pay a generous dividend, but also retain cash for re-investment into the operating business. This allows the company to grow their earnings and in turn increase the distribution on a regular basis – these are referred to as dividend growth stocks. Not only are you receiving a higher dividend (and yield) after every increase, but you will also likely see the value of your stock price increase as well.

In short, dividends should be up a core source of return in any investor’s portfolio. The companies that pay dividends truly come in all shapes and sizes. For those investors that are truly committed to growing their wealth over time, while controlling risk, allocating a reasonable percentage of capital to dividend investing is not just prudent, it is fundamentally essential.

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STAPLE AUTO REPAIR COMPANY ANNOUNCES SOLID REVENUE GROWTH IN Q3 2012, DESPITE ECONOMIC CHALLENGES – RATINGS MAINTAINED

“In the first half of this year the Dow and most of the other major indexes in the US will make a new all-time high. It will create a short-term excitement and then, and only then, I have suggested that I would look to put my bear hat on but not before that. I do think we need that to take place before we can seriously look for the market to top out. And many people, particularly those in the hard-asset arena, have remained bearish throughout this rise and– pretty well going to need them also to throw in the towe”l.

SCP: So junior markets had a terrible year during 2012. Do you think that junior resource stocks have bottomed and 2013 will be a relatively better year? If yes, what makes you more optimistic this year?

…..read all HERE

Final Bottom in Gold Stocks Imminent

Accumulating on weakness, buying support, being patient and waiting for better opportunities. Folks, this next week is one of those opportunities. The mining stocks have been a disaster if you’ve invested in the average fund, GDX or GDXJ. If you’ve invested in the wrong stocks, they’ve been a total disaster and you now hate the sector forever. We’ve certainly been surprised by this protracted struggle. However, the gold shares are set to test a major bottom and could be on the cusp of a major reversal which could begin as soon as next week.

The gold stocks are setting up similarly to the bottom in 2005. Let me explain. The gold stocks made a major double bottom in 2004 and 2005. The first bottom occurred in 2004 and the second in 2005. Interestingly, the 2004 bottom was its own double bottom. Following that the gold stocks rallied significantly for several months before eventually giving it all back. Note the circles on the chart as they compare to the current situation. Below is a chart of the HUI in 2004-2005 with the HUI/Gold ratio plotted at the bottom.

jan31edhui05b

In 2012 the HUI formed a small double bottom and then rallied strongly for a few months (like in 2004). Similar to 2005, the market has given all of that back and in the process the HUI/Gold ratio broke to a new low. The question now is will the HUI form a major rebound similar to the one in May 2005 and cement a long-term double bottom? Correlation is not causation but we should be aware of the potential for a strong rebound.

jan31edhui13b

Aside from the 2012 double bottom support, there is major trendline support around the 350 area. In the short-term, a move below the May 2012 low would constitute a major breakdown. However, it could be a test of the bull trendline and induce a bear trap and major reversal. On a very long-term chart, the difference between 375 and 350 is barely noticeable. The chart below shows the trendline connecting the 2000 and 2008 lows.

jan31edhuiTL

One should buy when the sector becomes extremely oversold on a very short-term basis. Look for a bad day followed by a gap down the next day which produces big losses intraday. This is the type of action that precedes bottoms in the mining stocks. Traders can buy GDXJ or NUGT for leverage. For stock pickers, look for stocks with strong fundamentals which have held up well in recent days and weeks. Those stocks will produce good rebounds. If you’d be interested in professional guidance in uncovering the producers and explorers poised for big gains then we invite you to learn more about our service.   

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

 

 

 

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