Gold & Precious Metals

Week In Review: Gold Slumps, Oil & NatGas Tumble

GOLD SINKS TO $1600 AS SLIDE ACCELERATES, SILVER UNDER $30, OIL & NATGAS TUMBLE

Commodities fell across the board this week, even as stock markets remained near five-year highs. Speculation about the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs pressured gold to the lowest level of the year, while a bearish inventory report sent natural gas skidding.

Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, were essentially unchanged in the period. The index is up 6.5 percent year-to-date.

Macroeconomic Highlights

This week’s economic data in the U.S. were mostly positive, but disappointing news in Europe dampened sentiment. The Census Bureau reported that retail sales in the United States rose by 0.1 percent in January, as expected. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose by 0.2 percent, slightly less than the anticipated 0.4 percent.

The Department of Labor said that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States fell from 368K to 341K last week, while the Empire Manufacturing Index in the U.S. rose from -7.78 to 10.04 in February—the highest level since May 2012.

On the bearish side, gross domestic product in the eurozone shrank by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, more than the 0.4 percent decrease that was expected and the third-straight quarterly contraction.

Of particular note was a 0.6 percent decline in Germany’s GDP, the worst downturn in that economy since the 2009 recession.

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…..read more HERE

 

The Global Endgame in Fourteen Points

UnknownAn over-indebted, overcapacity economy cannot generate real expansion. It can only generate speculative asset bubbles that will implode, destroying the latest round of phantom collateral.

I have endeavored to lay out the global endgame in four recent entries:

Is This the Terminal Phase of Global Capitalism 1.0? (February 8, 2013)

Note to Fed: Giving the Banks Free Money Won’t Make Us Hire More Workers (February 11, 2013)

Cheap, Abundant Credit Creates a Low-Return, Bubble-Prone World(February 12, 2013)

Europe Is Not “Fixed”: Two Charts (February 13, 2013)

For those seeking a summary, here is the global endgame in fourteen points:

1. In the initial “boost phase” of credit expansion, credit-based capital ( i.e. debt-money) pours into expanding production and increasing productivity: new production facilities are built, new machine and software tools are purchased, etc. These investments greatly boost production of goods and services and are thus initially highly profitable.

…..read 2-14 HERE

Dow 17,000? Main Street lambs led to the slaughter

MW-AW194 slot m 20121112142232 MEBullish predictions drive Wall Street’s casino

Wharton School economist Jeremy Siegel, author of two classics, “Stocks For the Long Run” and “The Future for Investors,” is one of America’s most respected financial minds. He recently told cable channel CNBC that Dow 15,000 was “definite,” with 50-50 odds of Dow 17,000 by year-end 2013.

He even doubled down in Kiplinger’s: “My Dow 17,000 projection may turn out to be too timid.” Now that’s real bull, a 20%-plus gain for 2013.

…..read more HERE

 

Is Gold Becoming a Risk-off Asset?

Lately we’ve been writing about the negative correlation between the equity market and the precious metals market. This phenomenon has been in place since summer 2011 and has re emerged in the past few months. Since November 23, the S&P 500 is up 8% while the gold shares are down 14%, Silver has lost 11% and Gold 7%. For those who have studied history this should not come as a total surprise. From 1972 to 1977 and November 2000 to July 2002, precious metals and the equity market trended in opposite directions. We’ve postulated that precious metals and the mining shares won’t begin a new bull phase until the cyclical bull market in US equities ends. We don’t expect that to happen immediately but there are some important signals beneath the surface (with the safe-havens) that we should direct our attention to.

First, let’s take a look at the recent activity in a number of markets. From top to bottom we plot Silver, Gold, GDX, TLT and the US Dollar. The first three markets have been in a downtrend since the end of September. Meanwhile, TLT and the buck began their downtrends in the middle of November. It appears that these markets have been tightly connected since the end of November. That is the bigger picture. The short-term term picture shows the US$ potentially breaking out and bonds not breaking to a new low.

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Meanwhile, we should take note of the action in some other markets since late November. Both emerging markets (EEM) and the S&P 500 have advanced, but EEM is slowing down. Commodities failed to make a new high even as the US$ made a marginal low. As we can see, the inverse of the buck is threatening to breakdown and realign with commodities and CEF, a fund which is half Gold and half Silver. The rally since November is now seeing a negative divergence as emerging markets have not made a new high and the US Dollar could be breaking out.

feb14ed2

The bottom line is the action in precious metals, commodities and the US$ is signaling a warning for the equity market. The bond market needs to confirm this warning and if it does it could be the catalyst for a sell-off in equities. Keep in mind, the S&P 500 is approaching strong long-term resistance while in a state of euphoric sentiment. If you don’t believe that, check the recent sentiment surveys and ignore those who don’t provide hard data. By the way, public opinion on bonds (fromsentimentrader.com), is only 14% bulls! Sounds like we should sell bonds and buy stocks, right?

Meanwhile, the precious metals appear likely to test major support in the coming days and weeks. There will be some more pain but things are setting up perfectly for the next cyclical bull market. Gold is positioning itself contrary to risk-on assets. It has detached from the stock market and that is a good thing. There will likely be a transition period as precious metals find a bottom and the equity market reaches its peak. For now, look to buy precious metals if they reach an extreme oversold condition next week. As for the gold stocks, if you’d be interested in professional guidance in uncovering the producers and explorers poised for big gains then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

 

 

Legendary investor Jim Rogers sees now as a great time to load up on gold and silver coins – and he’s not alone.

A record 7.5 million ounces of silver coins were sold in January as investors hunted for a safe haven investment.

“You can’t get [silver coins]. They sell out,” Rogers, who owns a rare 2013 silver coin, said onYahoo! Finance’s “The Daily Ticker.” “Several mints have run out of coins because everybody’s worried about the future of the world.”

And 150,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins were sold in January, the highest monthly total since July 2010.

“Gold has been up 12 years in a row which is extremely unusual for anything,” added Rogers. “A lot of speculators are rushing into gold right now. I’m not rushing into gold, but I’m certainly not selling it. If it goes down, I’m buying more.”

We Should Be Terrified’ Because Fed Tactics ‘Going to End Badly’

The Federal Reserve’s massive easing campaign will produce a crisis for the economy, says Rogers.

“The central bank has been printing staggering amounts of money, and the government has been spending a lot of money because they wanted Mr. Obama to get re-elected,” he tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview. “That’s still spilling over into the economy.”

Central banks across the world are matching each other virtually ease for ease, notes Rogers.

“We should all be terrified of what has happened, because governments around the world are printing huge amounts of money and spending huge amounts of money,” he says. “The debts are going up like a rocket. This is going to end very badly,” notes Rogers, author of the new book “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets.”

And how long can Fed easing continue? “As long as the printing press is run,” Rogers suggests. 

“Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said he’s going to keep doing this until 2014 or 2015. The man doesn’t know anything about economics. He doesn’t understand finance or currencies. All he understands is printing money.”

Rogers doesn’t buy President Barack Obama’s claim that the economy has improved over the last three years. “Do you believe the government?” Rogers asks rhetorically. “If you are going to believe the government you are going to go bankrupt.” 

All governments lie — Democrat and Republican, domestic and foreign, he notes. “We’re in worse shape than we were before Obama,” Rogers adds. 

“But even if things are better, it’s only because the debt has much more than doubled in the last four years since he got there and because they printed a lot of money.”

Rogers excoriates Obama for his quest to raise taxes further. “No country in world history has improved itself by raising taxes,” he explains. “If you cut taxes and if you cut spending, then people will do a better job.” 

Rogers has been bullish on commodities for years. “I own them all,” he says. “I own more agriculture than others.” If the world economy improves, there will be commodity shortages.

And if the economy doesn’t get better, “they are going to print even more money,” Rogers maintains. “You have to protect yourself by owning real assets, and you also make money by owning real assets.” 

He still owns gold, though he says he has hedged a bit of his position for two reasons. 

First, the precious metal has appreciated for 12 years in a row. “Now, I don’t know of any asset that has been up 12 years in a row without a down year, so that is worrisome,” Rogers notes. “It’s overdue for a nice correction, so maybe we’ll get it.”

Second, a lot of the recent buyers of gold are speculators. “That’s usually a worrisome sign,” he says. So Rogers isn’t buying or selling gold, though if it falls further, he says he will buy again.

After bouts of weakness over the past 4 ½ years the euro hit a 14-month high against the dollar last month. But, “I suspect that [the euro] will come back to haunt us again,” Rogers explains. “There are serious problems in Europe.”

 

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