Timing & trends

“No you’re not. Yes, they do”

A very helpful reminder of 10 timeless investor rules is offered in the following charts and article see Visualizing Bob Farrell’s 10 investor rules:

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Revisiting: An end to the Commodities Super Cycle

The primary driver of this view is the idea the world is still mired in global deflation, despite the growing expectation of an inflationary spike at “any time.” We are not denying the case for inflation, but believe it will take a lot more traction in the developed world economies before it materializes. That could be measured in years. 

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9 Lessons From The Greatest Trader Who Ever Lived

He earned $12.6 billion in today’s dollars in the 1929 Crash. 

portrait of jesse L 860895fThe stock market has certainly produced its share of heroes and villains over the years. And while villains have been many, the heroes have been few.

One of the good guys (for me, at least) has always been Jesse L. Livermore. He’s considered by many of today’s top Wall Street traders to be the greatest trader who ever lived.

Leaving home at age 14 with no more than five bucks in his pocket, Livermore went on to earn millions on Wall Street back in the days when they still literally read the tape. 

Long or short, it didn’t matter to Jesse.

Instead, he was happy to take whatever the markets gave him because he knew what every good trader knows: Markets never go straight up or straight down.

In one of Livermore’s more famous moves, he made a massive fortune betting against the markets in 1929, earning $100 million in short-selling profits during the crash. In today’s dollars, that would be a cool $12.6 billion.

That’s part of the reason why an earlier biography of his life, entitled Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, has been a must-read for experienced traders and beginners alike.

A gambler and speculator to the core, his insights into human nature and the markets have been widely quoted ever since.

Here are just a few of his market beating lessons:

On the school of hard knocks:

The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching. It took me five years to learn to play the game intelligently enough to make big money when I was right.

On losing trades:

Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

On trading the trends:

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end.

….read the other 6 market lessons HERE


 

 

 

 

A White (Metals) Sale You Won’t Want to Miss

You know I’m a big fan of gold as an enduring stash of wealth. I’m an even-bigger fan of building wealth quickly while you wait for your core, longer-term gold holdings to pay off.

This means keeping some powder dry to be able to jump into faster-moving opportunities. And right now, the precious metals are exactly the place to invest for near-term gains as well as long-term security.

In my trading services, I’ve led my subscribers to some hefty, quick returns in small miners with big potential. But with the miners getting crushed in the early part of this year, we’ve broadened our search to find nearer-term returns … and still at a fraction of the cost of buying the metals outright.

With gold prices inching higher with the broader markets, it makes sense to look at another white-hot metal that hasn’t had its day in the sun yet. Even better, it just went on sale … but probably not for much longer.

Palladium pulled back sharply on Tuesday, closing at $734 per troy ounce, down from $761 the day before. Some of this stemmed from worries that the problems in Cyprus would cause a financial panic in Europe, thus deepening the continent’s recession.

Certainly, weak European auto sales are also part of the equation. As an industrial metal, palladium is widely used to clean car-exhaust fumes.

An average auto catalyst contains about 4 grams (0.13 troy ounces) of palladium or its more-expensive cousin, platinum. Carmakers typically use more palladium for gasoline engines and more platinum for diesel engines.

Palladium rose more than 11% in last year’s fourth quarter — as other metals were falling — as demand for auto catalysts soared to a record high.

And so, not surprisingly, news that new-car registrations in the European Union, a proxy for sales, fell 9.5% during the first two months of 2013 added to the metal’s sudden drop.

And that’s why (I think) we saw the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) pull back sharply. Look at this chart  …

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You can see that PALL pulled back to its recent uptrend, testing the 50-day moving average at the same time. That said, the uptrend seems to be holding. We’ll need to see more of a bounce to be sure. Yesterday, the forces of buy and sell seemed to be balanced.

I’ve seen some notes about gold’s relationship to platinum and palladium. Here’s a chart of theSPDR Gold Trust (GLD) / PALL ratio  …

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I’m not necessarily keen on this ratio — the only ratios I watch in gold are its relationship to silver and its relationship to miners. Still, this ratio seems to matter to some investors.

We can see that the ratio rallied on the bad news out of Cyprus, but now it seems to be fading. That is bullish for palladium in relation to gold.

The takeaway is that palladium is still a better bet than gold going forward.

That doesn’t mean I’m bearish on gold. Nope. It just means that palladium holds more upside potential in the near term.

If the uptrend in PALL that I showed you in the previous chart breaks decisively, I will have to reconsider.

There are several ways to play palladium. You could buy a miner. But considering how miners throughout the precious-metals universe have been beaten up compared to the metals themselves, you may want to check out a palladium fund instead.

In addition to PALL, here are three more funds that hold the physical metal:

ETFS Physical White Metals Basket Shares (WITE): Average volume: 5,586. Expense ratio: 0.60%. Launched in December 2010, this fund offers bundled exposure to silver, platinum and palladium under one ticker. WITE dedicates about 60% of its total assets to silver, while platinum accounts for 30% and palladium fills in the last slot at 10%.

ETFS Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares (GLTR): Average volume: 16,295. Expense ratio: 0.60%. Launched in October 2010, this fund holds a basket of metals. It holds gold, silver, platinum and palladium in fixed weights, which works out to 0.03 ounces of gold, 1.1 ounces of silver, 0.004 ounces of platinum and 0.006 ounces of palladium.

VelocityShares 2x Long Palladium ETN (LPAL). Its average trading volume is 2,436 shares a day, which is low.

When you’re choosing the best way to trade palladium, pay close attention to how much exposure the fund has to the metal and to the amount of shares changing hands each day. A fund like PALL, for example, sees an average of 73,024 shares changing hands and is a pure play on palladium.

Remember, the better the trading volume, the quicker it is to enter and exit the position — and, in turn, the easier it is to get good prices when you’re buying and selling.

All the best,

Sean

P.S. My Global Resource Hunter subscribers have just closed out a string of positions with gains in the past month. Right now they are long palladium and sitting on some nice open gains in other precious-metals and natural-resources trades. It’s not too late to get in on the next round of profits — join them today by clicking here now.

Many more stories at Uncommon Wisdom here – http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/

 

 

Grandich: Market Update

U.S. Stock Market – I don’t believe the Cyprus situation is big enough (yet) to cause any meaningful sell-off in the stock market. While the market is overextended, it has yet to suggest a meaningful correction at the minimum is upon us. However, I do wish to remind you that if it was me, I would be implementing a scale-up sell program.

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Gold – After several good days it should come as no surprise that they now try a typical “walk-down” to erase much of the gains in minutes and hours that took days to achieve. With silver relatively weak and shares even weaker, we’re left in the hands of the Crimenex this morning – how nice! Just once I like to see them get whats coming to them but believing today shall be the day has led to nothing but disappointment up until now.

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Mining and Exploration Shares – Remain totally engulfed in the worse junior resource market in 30 years. Nothing outside of time and a gold price above $1,700 can change this. Investors only have one word on their mind (sell) on any increasing volume and price lift. I can’t blame them.

Weekly GDXJ Chart below:

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….a read suggested by Peter Grandich:

Bond crash dead ahead: tick, tick … boom!

Commentary: ‘Investors have no idea what’s about to happen’

…..read it all HERE

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