Currency

Peter Schiff: ‘Dollar Is Going to Collapse’

“If Bernanke doesn’t reverse course.”

UnknownPeter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, lambasted the Federal Reserve on Monday and said that the United States dollar is going to collapse unless Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stops stimulating the economy and inflating the money supply.

“The dollar is going to collapse if [Fed Chairman] Ben Bernanke doesn’t reverse course,” Schiff said in an interview with Yahoo! Finance. “And if he does, the whole phony economy that has been built on the foundation of stimulus is going to collapse as well.”

During a policy meeting last week, the Federal Reserve confirmed that quantitative easing will persist and didn’t provide any hints as to when it will end – Bernanke has consistently stated that it’s an indefinite policy.

“Ben Bernanke believes that somehow he can withdraw the stimulus and the economy will keep on expanding. It’s impossible because we have an economy that’s of stimulus, by stimulus and for stimulus,” explained the 2010 Republican Senate candidate.

Although the U.S. dollar has gained against other currencies within the past year, Schiff believes that eventually investors will get wise to the Fed’s disastrous policies and get out of the greenback immediately.

“People are going to realize, or call the Fed’s bluff, that our economy is stimulus-based,” stated Schiff. “There is not a real exit strategy. The Fed is going to print money indefinitely.”

 

Silver’s Coming of Age

Silver is winning market share from gold buyers.

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information”

2008 – In March 2008, sales increased nine times over the month before – 200,000 to 1,855,000.

In April 2008, the United States Mint had to start an allocation program, effectively rationing Silver Eagle bullion coins to authorized dealers on a weekly basis due to “unprecedented demand.”

On June 6, 2008, the Mint announced that all incoming silver planchets were being used to produce only bullion issues of the Silver Eagle and not proof or uncirculated collectible issues.

The 2008 Proof Silver Eagle became unavailable for purchase from the United States Mint in August 2008. The US Mint suspended sales of the silver bullion coins to its network of authorized purchasers twice during the year.

20,583,000 Bullion American Silver Eagles were sold in 2008. Silver averaged $14.99 an ounce and almost 80 percent more American Silver Eagles were sold then in any previous year.

“During 2008 there was a record inflow of over 93.1 million ounces (Moz) into the three main silver ETFs.Coins and medals fabrication jumped by an astonishing 63% to a record of 64.9 Moz. The main reason for this was a surge in investment-related purchases of bullion coins, both in the United States and Europe. Notably, fabrication of the U.S. Silver Eagle bullion coin achieved a record 19.6 Moz, approximately double the 2007 figure, and would have been higher if the U.S. Mint had sufficient blanks to produce coins to meet demand.”silverinstitute.org

2009 – 30,459,000 Bullion American Silver Eagles were sold.

On March 5, 2009, the United States Mint announced that the proof and uncirculated versions of the Silver Eagle coin for that year were temporarily suspended due to continuing high demand for the bullion version.

On October 6, 2009, the Mint announced that the collectible versions of the Silver Eagle coin would not be produced for 2009.

The sale of 2009 Silver Eagle bullion coins was suspended from November 24 to December 6 and the allocation program was re-instituted on December 7.

Total ETF holdings rose by 132.5 Moz and ended the year at 397.8 Moz. Coins and medals fabrication rose 21 percent to post a new record of 78.7 Moz.

Silver Eagle bullion coins sold out on January 12, 2010.

The average cost of an ounce of silver in 2009 was $14.67

image0022010 – No proof Silver Eagles were released through the first ten months of the year, and there was a complete cancellation of the uncirculated Silver Eagles.

Production of the 2010 Silver Eagle bullion coins began in January instead of December as usual. The coins were distributed to authorized dealers under an allocation program until September 3.

Silver posted an average price of $20.19 in 2010. World investment rose by an 40 percent in 2010 to 279.3 million troy ounces (Moz).

“Exchange traded funds (ETFs) registered another sterling performance in 2010, with global ETF holdings reaching an impressive 582.6 Moz, representing an increase of 114.9 Moz over the total in 2009. A significant boost in retail silver investment demand paved the way for higher investment in both physical bullion bars and in coins and medals in 2010. Physical bullion bars accounted for 55.6 Moz of the world investment in 2010. Coins and medals fabrication rose by 28% to post a new record of 101.3 Moz. In the United States, over 34.6 million U.S. Silver Eagle coins were minted, smashing the previous record set in 2009 at almost 29 million.” silverinstitute.org

2011 – Silver posted an annual average price of $35.12 in 2011, more than double the $14.67 average price for 2009.

Global investment in silver bars and coins & medals produced yet another historic high of 282.2 million ounces – the equivalent of $10 billion, itself a record high.

Physical silver bar investment grew by 67 percent in 2011 to 95.7 million ounces, global coins & medals fabrication rose by roughly 19 percent to an all-time high of 118.2 million ounces.

The US imported 6,600,000 oz of silver for consumption in 2011 – up from 2007’s imports of 4,830,000 oz.

In 2011 the US Mint sold 40,020,000 Bullion American Silver Eagle Coins.

….read & view more charts on pages 2, 3 & 4 HERE

 

Investment guru gives his take on the developments in financial markets in general and commodity markets in particular.

Dennis Gartman is the man behind The Gartman Letter, a daily newsletter discussing global capital markets. For more than 20 years, The Gartman Letter has tackled the political, economic and social trends shaping the world’s markets, and Gartman himself is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg and other financial media outlets. Hard Assets Investor’s Sumit Roy recently caught up with Gartman to discuss a wide range of topics, including gold, oil, natural gas, housing and China.

HardAssetsInvestor: Is the crisis in Cyprus significant for the global economy?

Dennis Gartman: It is significant for the psychology of investors. I think it’s significant for the psychology of wealthy families. I think it’s significant for people outside the United States to worry about the sanctity of contract and to worry about the sanctity of bank deposits. It adds a real concern to whether your money is indeed safe. Now it doesn’t mean that things are going to fall apart. It doesn’t mean that the world is coming to an end. But it does mean that you have an added concern that you have to add to the many other concerns that one has when making investment decisions.

At the margin, you have to suspect that wealthy families and wealthy corporations have had meetings to say “Look, the game changed a good deal … what do we have to do to protect ourselves?”

And as I like to say—since all economics is the study of people’s propensity to do something—what is the propensity for an investor from outside of Europe to put money into Europe? I have to suspect that that has been somewhat reduced. What is the propensity of somebody from inside Europe to move money outside of Europe? I have to think that that propensity has been somewhat increased. 

In the long run, the Cyprus situation is bearish of the euro. I think in the long run, it’s bullish of dollars—U.S., Canadian, Australian and Kiwi dollars. On other hand, I’m not quite convinced that it is either bullish or bearish of the stock markets.

HAI: Back in May, before the announced QE3, you made the call that gold had put in its short-term low below $1600. Of course, that proved to be very accurate, as gold rallied all the way up to $1800. Now we find gold back near $1600 again. What do you think is going to happen this time?

Gartman: I’m very bullish on gold, but not in dollar terms. I could care less, to be honest, about gold in dollar terms. I have immense interest in gold in yen. And it’s hard for people to believe that gold denominated in yen is at a new all-time high. Nobody recognizes that fact. But gold in yen terms is at a new high.

….read page 2 HERE or Full Article HERE

Richard Russell: Payback Time

I’ve been asked to name one future situation of which I’m most certain.Screen shot 2013-03-28 at 10.18.50 AM

How to Cash in on 2013’s Offshore “Gold Rush”

Oil 2There’s an offshore “gold rush” happening right in front of our eyes.

In fact, if you add up all the bullion that’s been added to central banks over the past two years, the total pales in comparison to this offshore prize. We’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars here.

And my friend, it’s just the beginning — over the long run, we’re talking trillions!

Today I want to give you an inside look at this offshore “gold rush” – along with the best ways to play it. As you’ll see, the normal mining cast and crew — Barrick, Goldcorp, Kinross — aren’t the winners in this game.

Before we continue, though, allow me to come clean that I’m not talking about precious metal plays at all. Instead, I want to share with you what our intrepid in-house geologist Byron King calls an offshore “gold rush”… of oil.

Indeed, the hunt for the world’s next big black-gold treasure is on. Only in the next 12 months, the hunt for massive oil paydays is heading out to sea — in a big way.

“Fortunes will be made,” Byron says. And the way I see it, those fortunes are going to come sooner than most people think — starting right now in 2013.

Over the past few months, momentum for the offshore oil industry has been gaining. Spending on subsea equipment is expected to grow to a record $13.9 billion this year — a 66% jump from last year’s total, Quest Offshore Resources reports.

You and I both know that you don’t throw $14 billion/yr onto a wall and hope it sticks (heh, unless you’re Ben Bernanke or Tim Geithner). In other words, there’s a lot of smart money betting that the offshore oil industry is about to boom — this year… right friggin’ now!

2013: The Year of the Offshore Gold Rush!

This year is a standout – an anomaly – and mark my words, now’s the time to cash in on this offshore rush.

In fact, the whole scenario is playing out just as we’ve predicted…

First, let’s back up. In recent years, I’ve written about America’s (onshore) energy renaissance. In the most unexpected of events, America is bustling with oil and gas development. And where most analysts believed that we’d be importing stuff like natural gas and oil — we’re actually on track to EXPORT natural gas and higher volumes of petroleum products.

Ah, how the times have changed! America is getting a fortuitous boost at a time when it needs it most. Oil and gas wells are flowing, pipelines and railroad terminals are bustling and raw wealth is flowing from underneath American soil. (The same wealth explosion can’t be felt in locales like Europe or China, that’s for sure.)

Here’s the kicker…

As this unexpected boom evolved and money began to fill the coffers of the big oil companies involved — Exxon, Chevron, Statoil, Marathon, Hess, Shell and more! — a lot of that money went right back into exploration and development budgets.

More and more of that money is flowing directly into global offshore development.

You’ve got to understand that the U.S. has “more” oil and gas than it ever expected, but when you put our domestic shale boom in perspective of the global oil scene, you’ll realize that the boost in supply is peanuts (around 1% of global output).

That’s exactly why big oil companies are making big bets offshore — they’re digging for black gold in the world’s deep-water basins!

“Just five years ago, we didn’t have the technology to find oil or even gain access that deep,” Byron King tells us. “Now we do. And suddenly, a few bold explorers are coming across huge, untapped resources.”

So while the U.S. enjoys a solid boost from onshore oil and gas development, this year’s big play in the energy market is offshore. Here’s a full excerpt from Byron:

“No Longer Just Trackless, Wave-Tossed Ocean

“Today, deep water is a key focus of the international majors. The energy industry has new geological models and better geophysical technology and data. There have been vast improvements in signal processing and data crunching. And we are living through a time of absolutely revolutionary advances in drilling capability. What used to be just trackless, wave-tossed ocean is now prime oil patch real estate. It follows that today we are seeing phenomenal success rates for exploration with super-high-output wells.

“Some of the world’s most significant new discoveries are coming from deep water, such as offshore Brazil. You probably heard about the 8 billion-barrel Tupi field that Petrobras found last year offshore Brazil. That’s only scratching the surface. Almost every month or so, you see another report of remarkable new finds in the deep waters offshore Brazil. The reports come from the Brazilian state-owned company Petrobras, as well as from the likes of giant Exxon Mobil and major independents like Hess.

“But the deep-water energy provinces are not restricted to Brazil. You also see significant investment in the Gulf of Mexico, off West Africa, in the Mediterranean, in the North Sea and in the Asia-Pacific region, and eventually, you’ll see it in the Arctic.

“And it’s big oil! Close to home, some of the newest deep-water fields in the Gulf of Mexico are scheduled to produce nearly 250,000 barrels of oil per day when they reach peak output. It’s safe to say that there’s much, much more coming from the deep water of the world.”

To put Byron’s comments in perspective, think of it this way…

The Bakken oil formation in North Dakota — one of the great shale oil plays in America — will have “good” wells that produce 500 barrels of oil per day. Sure, that’s a lot of unexpected oil for the U.S., but compared with hundreds of thousands of barrels per day from an oil-rich offshore field, it’s like comparing a swimming pool to one of the Great Lakes.

The big oil players know that the real windfall opportunities lay hundreds of miles offshore.

Heck, just this week we saw news from Chevron. The company’s latest oil strike in the Gulf of Mexico sits 190 miles off the coast of Louisiana in 6,000 feet of water. But they’re keeping the exploration numbers close to the hip — and still running full steam ahead.

Also, this week, the French oil giant Total announced it is, essentially, looking for all hands on deck — seeking to hire drilling supervisors with any deep-water experience. Total has an “ambitious” deep-water exploration program commencing over the next five years, according to their deputy vice president of drilling.

Indeed, this whole global play is just coming together now.

“Big Oil” Isn’t the Only Way to Play This Rush

To be sure, it’s not just Big Oil that’ll be cashing in from this trend. Sure, we’ll see a nice bump in share price for each exploration well that pays off for Exxon, Chevron or Hess — but some of the higher gains will come from other offshore players.

The “picks and shovels,” or in this case the “pipes and valves,” will certainly do well.

After all, working on a drill plan 6,000-10,000 feet below the surface involves a lot of hi-tech precision. In this arena, as Byron King’s readers know well, you can look at companies like FMC Technologies (FTI), Cameron International (CAM) or Oceaneering International (OII).

These companies are to the offshore industry what NASA was to the space program. When Big Oil needs a part that “has to work” in the harsh underwater environment, they pick up the phone and call the names above — and later down the road, they cut ’em a big check.

Do you need a valve that can work at 10,000 feet? How about a safety shut-off system that can’t fail? Or in the case of a needed fix, how about an underwater ROV (remotely operated vehicle)?

These “pipe and valve” plays are the go-to guys for these types of underwater technologies, and in the coming years, look for a solid tail wind for their shares.

In the meantime, keep an eye to the sea. This year will prove to be the liftoff point for increased offshore activity — and the investment opportunities that follow!

Keep your boots muddy,

Matt Insley
for The Daily Reckoning

MattInsleyOnSiteMatt Insley

The Managing Editor of the Daily Resource Hunter, Matt is the Agora Financial in-house specialist on commodities and natural resources.  He holds a degree from the University of Maryland with a double major in Business and Environmental Economics.  Although always familiar with the financial markets, his main area of expertise stems from his background in the Agricultural and Natural Resources (AGNR) department.  Over the past years he’s stayed well ahead of the curve with forward thinking ideas in both resource stocks and hard commodities. Insley’s commentary has been featured by MarketWatch.

Special Report: Forget QE3 – America’s Going Bust, on the Road to Bankrupt Hell- If America had a credit card, it would get mercilessly cut up and thrown back in her face. The country’s basically broke and isn’t paying its debts. Harsh, but true. All of that – and how it could affect your family and your retirement – is revealed in this urgent video report. Don’t wait, watch now.

 

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