Timing & trends

Rick Rule: How He’d Invest $100,000 in Gold Right Now

The founder and chairman of Sprott Global Resources Investments tells you how he would invest in the yellow metal right now…

With gold prices near two-year lows through much of 2013, a bargain-hunter asked a show called Money Morning TV how to invest $100,000 into Gold right now. They called Rick Rule and here are his answers (you listen to his full answer on video below the written summary). 

Rick Rule Says

1. he’d put at least 1/2 of the money into gold bullion. (Ed Note: A good article by Larry Edelson on The Wrong and Right Way to Buy Gold Bullion)

He would put the balance into the Equities and he would do it either by:

2. Selling puts on some of the bigger Gold Companies. This means if the price goes down he buys them for less than the current market. If the price doesn’t go down he gets to capture the put premium. (Ed Note: An thorough article by Michael Campbell on How to use Options to Invest).

and or…

He would personally buy riskier pre-production companies that have very very very high quality preliminary economic assessment or pre-feasibility style numbers. 

Sprott thinks that the major and intermediate mining companies will be forced back into the acquisition market in 9-12 months. These are assets that depreciate fairly rapidly and in order to maintain their production they are going to have to come back into the merger and acquistion markets. Rick also points out that it is currently cheaper to buy a stock on the Toronto Stock Exchange than it is to go out and find it. “So those look like the sweet spots to me”. 

Rick goes on to state that those unfamiliar with the sector need to understand one truism. If you think Gold is going up, buy Gold. Realize that “Gold Stocks do not necessarily mirror the price of Gold. You have to buy Gold Stocks because there is something intrinsic to that company where you believe that they are adding value relative to the rest of the sector. It is very, very critical that people understand that. That Gold Stocks are not a proxy for Gold. Gold is a proxy for Gold.” 

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 About Rick Rule:

Mr. Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resource securities investing. In addition to the knowledge and experience gained in a long, successful and focused career, he has a worldwide network of contacts in the natural resource and finance worlds. As Chairman of Sprott US Holdings, Mr. Rule leads a highly skilled team of earth science and finance professionals who enjoy a worldwide reputation for resource investment management.

Mr. Rule is a frequent  speaker at industry conferences, and is interviewed for numerous radio, television, print and online media outlets concerning natural resource investment and industry topics. He is frequently quoted and referred by prominent natural resource oriented newsletters and advisories.  Mr. Rule and his team have long experience in many resource sectors including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining and water. 

Sprott US Holdings is active in securities brokerage, segregated account money management and investment partnership management involving both equity and debt instruments, across the entire spectrum of the natural resource industry.

Contact: rrule at sprottglobal dot com

The connection between quantitative easing and the gold price

Why 2013 could be the best year to buy gold since 2008

Quantitative easing, the oft-referenced $85 billion per month shelled out by the Federal Reserve, comes down to the purchase of two kinds of securities — U.S. Treasury paper (bonds, notes and bills) and mortgage-backed securities. The Federal Reserve buys the Treasury paper from the federal government and the mortgage-backed securities from commercial banks. The first is a direct form of monetization (money printing); the second is an indirect form since a good portion of those funds are in turn also used by the banks to purchase Treasury paper. The two together comprise the bulk of what appears on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as “reserve bank credit.” At the present that figure stands at just over $3.2 trillion — up about $2.4 trillion since the beginning of the financial crisis in late 2008.

When you superimpose the gold price over reserve bank credit on a chart, it looks like this:

goldvsreservecredit

…..read more HERE (including the first paragraph. Also Peter suggests you click & read – This note_

 

Earlier this month, in an article for “Project Syndicate” famous American economist Nouriel Roubini joined the chorus of those who declare that the multi-year run up in the gold price was just an almighty bubble, that that bubble has now popped and that it will continue to deflate. Gold is now in a bear market, a multi-year bear market, and Roubini gives six reasons (he himself helpfully counts them down for us) for why gold is a bad investment. Roubini does not quite go so far as to tell his readers that there is no role whatsoever for the yellow metal. Investors should have a “very modest” share of gold in their portfolios, as a hedge against extreme risks, which, the good professor assures us, are almost so negligibly small that they are “irrational fears”, really, but beyond that there is little reason to bother with gold.

Interestingly, “very modest” is indeed a good description of gold’s share in the global asset mix. According to some studies gold accounts for only around 1 percent of global asset holdings. In terms of asset breakdown we already are where Roubini thinks we should be. So why bother? Those of us – such as yours truly – who hold a more pessimistic outlook as to the efficiency of current policies and the sustainability of the current monetary infrastructure, and who accordingly hold a bigger share of their wealth in gold, are evidently “paranoid”, and as they now reap the deserved reward for their dreadful negativity courtesy of a declining gold price, why not ignore them? It is, after all, a tiny minority. But it is evident from Roubini’s essay that he not only considers the gold bugs to be wrong and foolish, they also annoy him profoundly. They anger him. Why? – Because he thinks they also have a “political agenda”. Gold bugs are destructive. They are misguided and even dangerous people.

Roubini’s Case Against Gold

…..read Roubini’s extensive case against Gold HERE

Faber: The Market’s Similar to the Explosive NASD Nov/99 to Mar/00

marc faber1-300x290When it rose past 100%

Last year, Singapore real estate investment trusts (REITs) went up by 40%, and they are up higher this year. But I don’t think that they are the greatest bargain at the moment. Right now, high dividend-yielding stocks are moving up hugely.
 My sense is that we are in a market similar to the Nasdaq 100 between November 1999 and March 2000 when it rose past 100%, or the oil price between February 2008 and July 2008 when it shot up 70%. When there is upside acceleration, it’s a bad time to buy. Is it a good time to short? Yes, if you have deep pockets, maybe it’s a good time to short the equity markets. But who knows? 

….newer posts from Marc below: 

Marc Faber’s Favorite Singapore REITs

Gold has far outperformed Financial Assets since 1999

Most of my GOLD is in a safe-deposit box in Switzerland, but I am shifting it to Asia

 

 

 

Global Insights – June 12

Kevin Konar»» Most equity markets pulled back for the third-straight week, except the U.S. managed to drift higher following Friday’s slightly better-than-expected employment gains. Safe-haven government bond yields rose again across regions.

»» The obsession about when the Fed will begin to taper will likely persist for months. Our economist has long argued tapering could start in October if employment growth remains near recent levels.

»» Global Roundup: Statistics about the magnitude and duration of previous S&P 500 selloffs since 1945; highlights from Canada’s strong employment report; update on Europe’s economic trends; summary of Japan’s “third arrow” reform efforts. (pages 3-4)

For the complete Weekly Report as well as Daily Updates CLICK HERE.

 

 

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