Bonds & Interest Rates

Long-term Dollar Uptrend Intact – Weekly Chart View of Major Pairs

Posted by Jack Crooks - Black Swan Capital

on Thursday, 27 June 2013 16:10

Quotable

“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.”

Stanley Druckenmiller

Commentary & Analysis

Long-term Dollar Uptrend Intact – Weekly Chart View of Major Pairs

 

The weekly charts below (shared with our forex service members yesterday) continue to support our view the US dollar is in a longer term bull trend against the pack..The charts include wave count, 21- vs. 55-day exponential moving average, and MACD (moving average

convergence divergence oscillator).

Key summary:

  • Interesting that EUR/USD & USD/CHF only now entering a 21 vs. 54-week moving average
  • crossover, i.e. EUR/USD down and USD/CHF up.
  • AUD/USD appears oversold on the MACD; but clearly the trend is down
  • GBP/USD following the triangle wave pattern very nicely
  • USD/JPY looks to go much higher; looking oversold at the moment weekly.

USDollar Index Weekly

Screen shot 2013-06-27 at 9.30.40 AM

……the Canadian chart & all other currencies can be see HERE

Pimco: Fed May Be Giving Investors ‘Too Much Guidance’

Posted by El-Erian - Pimco CE)

on Thursday, 27 June 2013 7:51

The Federal Reserve’s increased transparency, such as indicating last week that it may taper quantitative easing (The Fed’s massive easing itself can hurt markets, El-Erian tells CNBC. 

“The longer they stay unconventional, the deeper they venture with these experimental policies, the more the costs and the risks start to become large relative to the benefits,” he notes. 

But, “there’s a second really interesting issue, which is, are they giving us too much guidance?” 

The openness can accelerate market declines, El-Erian says.  (Ed Note: 

Just look at the amount of information the Fed has given investors, he states, adding that the Fed has thrown out lots of numbers for when it will start tapering QE, such as a 7 percent unemployment rate, a 6.5 percent unemployment rate, a date this year and a date next year.

“When you give so much guidance to the market, you risk over-determining,” El-Erian explains. “So what happens, people jump to the terminal values. They don’t even wait for the journey. They go immediately to the destination and the re-price. Then the bad technicals kick in.” 

Even St. Louis Fed President James Bullard questioned whether Bernanke went too far in specifying the central bank’s intentions.

Bullard said in a statement that he “felt that the committee’s decision to authorize the chairman to lay out a more elaborate plan for reducing the pace of asset purchases was inappropriately timed.”

Ed Note: It would seem investors are favoring the strategy indicated by both of these charts

usapowerfederal-reserve

 

Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver….

Posted by Doug Eberhardt: Buy Gold & Silver Safely

on Thursday, 27 June 2013 6:50

gold-silverMy first real bullish article in a long time. Ed Note: This is an extensive article

Grandich: “the” bottom in gold is within 48 hours or so!

Posted by Peter Grandich - Grandich.com

on Thursday, 27 June 2013 6:16

48hour-inner-300x150

 

dpan799l

To anyone still favoring gold you may feel as I do; totally beaten up, defeated and like 12 years went out the window. Congratulations!!!

The parties who were behind what will go down in history as one of the greatest take downs of any market that began in earnest back in April, have pretty much now achieved everything they wanted. Gold and silver are bruised, battered and in shambles. One either feels its a loss cause and/or will not see the highs of 2011 again in their lifetime. The bandwagon calling gold dead, a relic and never to shine again is overloaded and busting at the seams (even though most on that bandwagon missed most if not all the ride up and will miss the next leg as well).

As much as all the members of the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd that litters the offices of the financial services industry and much of the spineless, gutless financial journalists who are lapdogs to the Talking Heads that lead the “happy” crowd around by their noses would like you now to believe (that the useless, non-interest paying relic known as gold is down and out), it is not over for gold. Most of the reasons to own it remain and thanks to what has happened (starting with the take down) have given new reasons to own gold.

Reasoning at this moment is basically useless as emotions of fear are fully entrenched. But in this dark, spinning out of control moment, I’m going to leave you with a movie clip and hopefully like me, there’s no surrender in your belly and as hard as it will be – join me and get back in this war.

…..read Peter’s Canada’s Top 10 HERE

Chasing the Dragon: The Central Bank Revolution

Posted by Hinde Capital

on Thursday, 27 June 2013 1:30

chasingdragonnscreenshot“The market is not an accommodating machine. It won’t provide high returns just because you need them.”

Peter Bernstein

“All Nations with a capitalist mode of production are seized periodically by a feverish attempt to make money without the mediation of the process of production.”

Karl Marx

“Inflation is the disease of money.”

In this piece, the Central Bank Revolution II – Chasing the Dragon, we illustrate how the effects of central bank monetary policy, today, have already distorted the term structure so monstrously that assets have been driven to yields more akin to those of holding money. The yield grab has extended into riskier and riskier assets and structures, resulting in a diminished return profile that is not compensated for by the falling credit quality, and the heightened duration risk. The stage has been set for capital losses, as once again investors indulge in levered products, with suspect collateral value, and invest in plain vanilla assets with no margin of safety.

…..read the report HERE

 

test-php-789