Stocks & Equities

Is Cell Therapy the ‘Future of Medicine’?

Screen Shot 2013-07-25 at 10.51.25 AMThe pricey evolutionary tradeoff for walking on two legs is the curse of lower back pain. Jason Kolbert of the Maxim Group understands the power of stem cells as disease-modifying therapies for degenerative disc disease of the spine, a leading-edge, multibillion-dollar indication. Kolbert explores the opportunities that cell therapies offer investors in this interview with The Life Sciences Report, and puts a personal spin on their regenerative promise.

The Life Sciences Report: Jason, I wanted to ask you some questions about degenerative disc disease (DDD) and the use of cell therapy to manage the problem. Some people have said that the spine is a hostile environment. Why is it hostile?

Jason Kolbert: It is a unique environment versus other areas of the body because of the relative dearth of vasculature. In critical limb ischemia (CLI), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke and other diseases there is a significant amount of blood flow and a lot of metabolic movement to the affected areas. The spine is hostile because it does not have the same level of blood flow and metabolic activity as other tissues.

TLSR: Could that minimal amount of metabolic processing in the disc space mean that cells have a longer time to work if placed directly into lesions?

JK: It’s the opposite of that. When we inject cells into the intervertebral space, we want those living cells to be enriched with a good blood supply because they must react to the local environment. It is important for the cells to survive long enough in the diseased space to exert their therapeutic effects. In the hostile spinal environment, one could argue that cells either have to be more robust or that they must exert their effects in a shorter period of time because of their shorter life expectancy. That’s been one of the problems in using cell therapy in the spine.

TLSR: Briefly, tell me about DDD.

JK: The intervertebral space contains a cartilaginous disc that, under normal and healthy conditions, cushions two neighboring vertebrae and enables normal, pain-free articulation of the spine in the upright human. However, with advancing age there is a progressive loss of the proteoglycan material that confers these stress-mitigating properties on the disc.

Let me address two types of treatment, and I don’t want them to be confused. In dealing with herniated, bulging and generally degenerated discs, we want to stop the pain by stopping the inflammation and hopefully, in a best-case situation, healing the diseased tissue. In a spinal fusion, a direct connection between two vertebrae is made, stopping their ability to move and rub against each other, and thus stopping the potential for nerve encroachment and pain. The two are often linked—that is, disc disease often precedes a fusion (especially if the fusion is not accident- or cancer-related).

TLSR: Endpoints are how we measure efficacy. What is an acceptable endpoint for degenerative disc disease? Clearly, we want the patient to be pain-free, but is that enough?

JK: We, as analysts, are asked that question a lot. Pain can be a subjective endpoint, so whenever we don’t have to use it—and can use a qualitative endpoint instead—we prefer to avoid it. That said, from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) point of view, reduction of pain is an acceptable endpoint and does represent the standard by which it has and will likely continue to approve drugs for DDD.

Secondary endpoints are important as well, and evidence of those may be observed via MRI or radiographic imaging. This is where we get into a lot of nuance. Mesoblast Ltd. (MSB:ASE; MBLTY:OTCPK) ran preclinical studies with its human mesenchymal precursor cells (MPCs) in ovine (sheep) models. Sheep are quadrupeds, resting and walking on four legs. Gravity does not exert the same vertical or upright force on a quadruped as it does on a bipedal mammal like a human. In Mesoblast’s ovine studies there was beautiful radiographic evidence of restoration of vertebral height.

Now researchers want to know if restoration of vertical height should or could be a primary endpoint for Mesoblast’s DDD trial in humans. We don’t think it should because of the inherent differences between two-legged and four-legged mammals. It simply doesn’t make sense to use radiographic imaging of vertical height a primary endpoint, but it could be a secondary endpoint. We also think it may take more time to show radiographic changes versus changes in pain patterns. In terms of a clinical trial and product development strategy, it makes more sense to use pain as the primary endpoint. That is what we expect Mesoblast, and other companies that follow them, to do.

TLSR: Lack of–or diminished–pain is certainly going to be enough from a patient’s perspective. But obviously researchers want to be able to tie in radiographic and/or MRI changes in the same way imaging evidence is used in cancer drug development. Correct?

JK: I would stop you right there. I would not mix cancer and DDD trials. They’re very different. For cancer, the gold standard is to delay mortality—to increase overall survival. In degenerative disc disease, the primary endpoint that the FDA will use is reduction in pain. However, if pain reduction in a specified period of time is supported by qualitative data such as improvement shown in radiographic imaging evidence, that would be the Holy Grail of spinal disease.

TLSR: I’ve dwelled on imaging evidence because pain is very subjective. In the management of chronic or intractable pain, clinicians might give patients a written test every three months to measure their pain-reaction threshold.

JK: That is a great point. As I previously mentioned, as an analyst, I am nervous when pain is a primary endpoint because I want to know how pain was measured and how the trials were run. Were they double-blinded? Were they placebo-controlled? Trial design has to be scrutinized.

CEO Silvio Itescu Describes Mesoblast Ltd.’s Work in the Degenerative Disc Disease Space

However, the reality is that in a disease like DDD, pain reduction is the standard primary endpoint. Can you take someone who’s had degenerative disc disease over a period of 15 to 40 years and reverse the damage? That would be asking cells to do a lot. A trial should not fail if a patient becomes pain-free but doesn’t demonstrate the imaging changes we’d love to see. The reality is, if you can alleviate the suffering from degenerative disc disease and avoid the progression to spinal fusion, then the value you bring to the patient–and the reduction in costs to the system–are huge.

TLSR: One more question about trial design in DDD: In cancer trials we are bound, in most instances, to begin with standard of care—older, approved treatments—before progressing to an experimental drug. In the meantime, patients have become more resistant to any therapy. Can you relate that to Mesoblast’s human studies?

JK: Yes. Mesoblast did something very interesting in its phase 2 human clinical trial for DDD. It recruited steroid-refractory patients—people who had already failed steroids for their pain. Therefore, the fact that cells showed a good result in these patients is very significant. We think the long-term use of steroids does nothing toward healing disc disease. Cell therapy opens up an entire new treatment paradigm in back pain.

TLSR: Does cell therapy have to be superior to current therapies, steroids in particular? Isn’t it enough that cells won’t cause steroid necrosis in the spine?

JK: Mesoblast went around the current therapy issue entirely by enrolling steroid-refractory patients in its trial. If it can demonstrate that cell therapy works in patients who have failed steroids, the company is dealing in a niche market, essentially an unmet medical need. That’s huge.

Going forward, once Mesoblast has FDA approval, how would it extend the label for frontline usage? That’s the question. Would it have to run a control arm against steroids and show noninferiority? That’s more likely than being required to show superiority, particularly if it occurs in a sequence where it has already shown utility in steroid-refractory patients. That is the brilliance of the Mesoblast strategy.

“Delivering the cells is relatively simple and quick, not too dissimilar to an epidural steroid injection.” —Silvio Itescu of Mesoblast Ltd.

Provided a pivotal trial replicates the phase 2 data I would expect to see NeoFuse (immunoselected, culture-expanded, nucleated, allogeneic MPCs), Mesoblast’s spinal fusion cell therapy, approved and on the market as early as 2016. NeoFuse represents a highly cost-effective alternative to open spinal surgery for patients, and would target patients whose discs have degenerated too far for any hope of repair, where fusion is the only viable option to eliminate pain. In other words, cell therapy creates a new alternative for treating DDD patients. Surgery is always an option and is reserved for when less-invasive options have failed.

TLSR: Let’s go to how the cells work. Is engraftment of cells necessary for therapeutic effect?

JK: This is misunderstood by most people in the space, who believe engraftment relates to autologous cells (derived from the same patient to which they will be administered) versus allogeneic cells (from a same-species donor). The fact is that engraftment is not occurring with Mesoblast’s allogeneic cells, but neither is engraftment occurring with most autologous cell therapies.

When we talk about indications in which cell therapies might be useful, such as degenerative disc disease, cardiovascular disease or critical limb ischemia, we’re talking about cells acting like microfactories, producing therapeutic proteins or cytokines for a period of time before going away. It’s not a question of autologous or allogeneic. This is a key point. We don’t believe that engraftment is part of the cell therapy paradigm for the most part. It’s a question of the cell’s ability to react with potency to the local environment, and not a question of one cell type versus another.

TLSR: You are, in essence, saying that there is a paracrine or druglike effect with these microfactories, and then the cells leave. That implies that retreatment will be necessary in the future. In my mind, that could be a limiting factor in the use of allogeneic materials, such as Mesoblast’s cells. I find it interesting that these DDD studies involve a single administration of cells, not multiple doses over time. Is there still an overhang of potential danger in the readministration of these allogeneic cells? The immune system could mount a huge immune response or defense against their reintroduction into a patient.

JK: The answer is no. We have seen no tangible evidence that the readministration of allogeneic cells puts you at risk for any type of anaphylaxis.

We spent a lot of time with Mesoblast and Athersys Inc. (ATHX:NASDAQ) looking at the historical examples and the number of treated patients. We found zero evidence of immune response. We’re aware of the recent events with Pluristem Therapeutics Inc. (PSTI:NASDAQ), which uses full-term maternal placenta-derived adherent stromal cells. The FDA placed a hold on the company’s 74-patient phase 2 study for intermittent claudication/peripheral artery disease due to a serious allergic response that required hospitalization of one patient in the trial. We believe that is a Pluristem-specific issue.

Let’s delve into the immune reaction topic because it is also key. Manufacturing is critical. What are you actually doing to the cells? After they are harvested from the body, do you purify them? Do you enrich them? Do you expand them? Even autologous cell companies are manipulating cells in some way. They may qualify as minimally manipulated, but they’re still manipulated, whether an allogeneic cell or an autologous cell. Therein lies the opportunity to create the basis for an immune reaction. If a cell has been exposed to a particular serum or a contaminant in the manufacturing process, or if it has been roughly treated or exposed to turbulent flow, that contaminant or process may impact cell vitality and create an immune reaction.

You were at the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine Investor Day conference back in April. I was a panelist, and Maxim Group was one of the co-hosts. When NeoStem Inc. (NBS:NYSE.MKT) was finishing up its presentation, it suggested that autologous cells were safe. By inference the company suggested that allogeneic cells were not. We believe that is an example of misdirection, because reality tells us that it’s a question of manufacturing.

The questions are: Does a company have a robust manufacturing process with proper controls? Does the company know, in fact, that the process is safe? In its animal work, Mesoblast went so far as to manufacture both autologous and allogeneic cells to see if there was any difference in immune response. If there were a difference, it could be clearly traced back to the cell itself. And the company found no difference—no immunotoxicity. Mesoblast was validating the robustness of its manufacturing process. So long as a company has that, it will be OK. No one should use Pluristem’s hiccup and the FDA’s clinical hold as evidence that allogeneic is not safe.

TLSR: In other words, an immune reaction might be attributed to an artifact introduced into the patient, not the cells themselves.

JK: Correct. It may be an artifact introduced by the manufacturing process that Pluristem has to track down and correct.

We believe that other autologous companies face the same risks in their manufacturing processes. If we look at Baxter International Inc. (BAX:NYSE), with its autologous CD34+ mesenchymal stem cells from peripheral blood, or at NeoStem with its CD34+ bone marrow-derived autologous cells, these companies are enriching the cells using columns in the manufacturing process. The cells are separated, sorted and flow through the column. They interact with the column and the resulting fraction is enriched for a specific cell marker. The cell product, as such, has been manipulated. Each step is an opportunity for something to go wrong, such as the introduction of a contaminant. Starting with an autologous cell does not mean that the final product is safe.

I will grant that there are probably fewer manufacturing steps in an autologous setting, but the individualized handling, lack of automation and quality control are all limited by comparison to the advantages of a well-defined allogeneic process. If there is any manipulation whatsoever, the risk of anaphylaxis exists.

TLSR: I’d like to talk about administration of cells. Is each company developing its own methods and cannula systems to administer the cells, or will there be an all-purpose device to administer cells for intervertebral disc disease?

JK: I believe companies will develop their own devices. In fact, BioRestorative Therapies Inc. (BRTX:OTCBB) has developed a very interesting cannula that seems to work extremely well and is very unique. Companies are trying not to change the traditional methodology of the pain treatment paradigm for disc disease. So cells will be introduced in the same way that steroids are introduced. However, cells are not steroids, and it makes sense that a specialized cannula is needed.

One of the things that caught my eye is that BioRestorative Therapies is doing work with cells from brown fat. It’s an interesting argument, and a different cell source than Mesoblast’s. But the company has developed a lot of anecdotal data in humans that suggests its cells are like Mesoblast cells—robust and with potential therapeutic value in bulging and herniated disc disease.

TLSR: What is your impression of BioRestorative versus Mesoblast?

JK: BioRestorative is an interesting little company with mountains of anecdotal data that suggest its cells and delivery device may actually work. Having looked at Mesoblast’s data in DDD and in spinal fusion, it looks like it works too. The question is: If BioRestorative follows Mesoblast, where will that leave it if Mesoblast is the first mover? Only the management teams are in the position to answer.

“We believe we can effectively and safely treat patients using a nonsurgical, minimally invasive procedure that can be performed routinely in a physician’s office.” —Mark Weinreb of BioRestorative Therapies Inc.

Suffice to say that 5–10 years from now, I believe there will be competing cell therapies for disc disease. There will be an optimum cell type and delivery methodology for each disease or situation. But that thinking is too sophisticated for where the industry is today. It comes down to this: Right now the outlook for cell therapy is binary—either it works or it doesn’t work. I believe the evidence is clear—cell therapy can work, in the right indication, at the right “dose,” with the right cell type and in the right trial. Mesoblast has the resources in place to address these issues and will, I believe, end up with a positive outcome. Once the market accepts the reality—once we have an approved blockbuster cell therapy—the natural next question will be how we make the therapy better. My bet is that there will be multiple competing products, each with respective pros and cons.

TLSR: The anesthesiologists, the interventional neurologists and the neurosurgeons who treat spinal disease are already injecting drugs like steroids into intervertebral spaces. Are payers going to look at these cell therapies as just another drug going into a patient’s intervertebral space and ultimately want to pay on that basis?

JK: That’s exactly the right question. The payers are going to ask why should they pay for cell therapy at, let’s assume, the $10,000 per dose level if that will give the patient the same level of pain relief that could be achieved with a steroid at $100 per dose. That is going to be an issue. It’s going to be important for companies like Mesoblast and BioRestorative Therapies to generate data suggesting not only that cell therapy works, but also that it works in patients where steroids don’t—and that cell therapy does what steroids can’t, which is to arrest disease progression. Steroids treat the symptoms and not the underlying problem, and there is good reason to believe that cell therapy can not only alleviate pain, but also help arrest disease progression. The value of that is huge.

As far as the cost of spinal fusion. . .now we’re talking tens of thousands of dollars, and fusion often doesn’t even stop the pain. Sometimes a fusion of two vertebrae creates problems in adjacent vertebrae. Most clinicians and patients see fusion as a last resort. Clearly the treatment armamentarium needs a new resource. To the extent that a company like Mesoblast or BioRestorative can show data that changes the paradigm, payers will see value.

TLSR: Jason, you have addressed the issue that companies like Mesoblast and BioRestorative Therapies are trying not to change the way clinicians perform procedures. Clearly, administration of cells is not technique-sensitive relative to what clinicians are already doing. Uptake should be pretty rapid if these therapies are proven efficacious, shouldn’t it?

JK: You’ve hit the nail on the head. If you ask the neurosurgeon or the pain specialist to learn a new modality or technique for administration of an agent, you’re talking about a steeper learning curve, and a longer time to penetrate the marketplace. If clinicians don’t have to change their procedures in any way, shape or form, you’re talking rapid uptake.

CEO Mark Weinreb Describes BioRestorative Therapies Inc.’s Therapy for Bulging and Herniated Disc Disease

I think the latter will be the case with cell therapies in degenerative disc disease and even spinal fusion, which might also be accomplished with cells. In fact, in the case of spinal fusion, cell therapy may actually make the orthopedic surgeon’s life easier because a step is eliminated. The surgeon is not performing an autologous bone graft from the hip, which can be very painful for the patient. If you can keep the paradigm identical—or even eliminate a step—we think there is a huge win for the patient, the clinician and the product developers.

Eliminating a step is where we believe allogeneic therapy wins. First, it tends to have lower cost of goods versus autologous, and second, it is patient friendly. You don’t have to harvest cells or tissues from the patients—not from their bone marrow, not from their fat, not from their peripheral blood. An allogeneic therapy is off-the-shelf and ready to use. That’s true even when we look at CHF or STEMI (ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction)-based CHF treatment, where Athersys is working.

For instance, in the catheterization laboratory, when a stent is being placed, allogeneic therapy would be readily available without harvesting anything from the sick patient, and the patient would not have to return for a second procedure. You want to limit the number of interventions you make to a patient who has heart disease. As investors scrutinize companies, it’s very important to recognize which score best on the standard SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

TLSR: Have we seen response related to dose of cells?

JK: The answer is yes, but the reasons are not obvious. When we look at small molecules, we expect to see a linear response. You give dose one at 5 mg, dose two at 10 mg, dose three at 15 mg and dose four at 20 mg, and expect to see increasing efficacy and maybe increasing adverse events until a maximum tolerated dose and efficacy plateau is reached.

Cell therapy, on the other hand, doesn’t follow a linear curve. You have to put in enough cells to hit critical mass, but you could use too many cells, with the result being lower efficacy. Let me explain. Let’s say there are three doses of cells, 5 million (5M), 10M and 20M. It may be that 5M cells are not enough to exert the therapeutic benefit because we did not reach critical mass. But it could be that 20M cells are ineffective because too many cells end up competing for resources in a confined space and/or in a hostile environment. You could overload that space, with the result being that the cells don’t survive long enough to exert a therapeutic effect. You could ultimately determine that 10M cells are optimal. By the time researchers get to phase 3, they should have a really good handle on the right dose for a given indication.

TLSR: Jason, these cell therapy companies have not moved like biotech companies over the past year. Why are they not participating in what has been a broader biotech rally?

JK: There is inefficiency in the micro-cap space. Not only is there inefficiency, but there aren’t many analysts who follow cell therapy. Most analysts don’t really understand it.

When we look at the larger-cap companies that are heavily followed by institutions on both the buyside (institutional money management) and sellside (investment bank-driven research), there is much greater efficiency in the trading of shares. I’ll give you a great example. At Maxim we recently launched coverage of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA:NASDAQ). When I was at the Teva research and development conference, I counted about 400 analysts in the room. Most of them were on the buyside. As for the sellside, I don’t believe we’ve ever seen an analyst who covers Teva write extensively about its partnership with Mesoblast. It’s very clear that there is a very large inefficiency in the marketplace.

The challenge for many stem cell companies is how good data will change the company. Mesoblast is moving into pivotal trials for spinal fusion and degenerative disc disease, and also into a large, 1,700-patient trial in CHF that is being paid for by Teva—to the tune of $130M. I think it’s very important that investors step back and ask themselves what is real and what’s not real.

TLSR: Teva owns 20% of Mesoblast, and that equity is now worth $300–350M to Teva. Even with Teva’s sponsorship, Mesoblast is down 18% over the past 52 weeks.

JK: Let me add a few things. Mesoblast is primarily domiciled in Australia, and its shares are very thinly traded in the U.S. Even with a $1.8B market cap and $330M in cash on its balance sheet, it is not well followed.

We’re not going to get real institutional ownership in cell therapy stocks until they have data and proof of concept. If you’re a fund manager with $10 billion ($10B) under management, you can’t afford to buy a micro-cap company or even a big-cap company that is thinly traded in the U.S. Companies like Mesoblast need to establish a more significant U.S presence that will lead to better share liquidity, which will then allow institutional ownership. Then I believe institutions will say, “OK, if I own Mesoblast, what else might work?” They will start scouring the landscape to find companies like Osiris Therapeutics Inc. (OSIR:NASDAQ), Athersys or Pluristem, which are allogeneic counterparts to Mesoblast. The fund managers can then ask, “Are these stocks cheaper alternatives?”

TLSR: By the way, how is your ankle?

JK: Thank you for asking. I’m not just an analyst; I’m also a patient of Dr. Steven Victor, founder and CEO of IntelliCell BioSciences Inc. (SVFC:OTCPK). As you remember, I rotated my ankle this past winter with extensive damage to the ligaments. I was evaluated at the emergency room and had an orthopedic specialist follow up. The original prognosis was 3–6 months of recovery with minimal physical stress, such as running. Dr. Victor treated my ankle and for me, an n=1, the results were amazing.

Truly, the treatment was as close to minimally manipulated cell therapy as one can get. A stromal vascular fraction was extracted from my belly fat. The harvest was 750M cells; 50M were injected locally into my ankle, with 700M administered systemically. Dr. Victor believes that the systemic administration of cells in conjunction with the local administration creates two modalities of repair. The local repair process accelerates and is supported by the systemic impact, which address generalized inflammation.

I will tell you, my ankle was close to 100% within 10 days of treatment. I had a fantastic season of skiing this past winter, and have been water skiing all summer long. Ankle strength is critical in water skiing.

Clearly, I personally believe cell therapy works. I believe it’s viable. I know that from my personal experience, and while I’m only one patient, the results were dramatic. I think cell therapy represents the future of medicine.

TLSR: The therapy that you had administered did not have to be approved by the FDA. There is anexemption for minimally manipulated biological tissues. No premarket approval (PMA) or even 510(k) clearance is necessary. Correct?

JK: That is exactly correct. In the case of IntelliCell BioSciences, cells are extracted from adipose tissue, but there is no collagenase (collagen enzyme) added to digest it. The company essentially appliessonification (ultrasound) and separates out the stem cells. Within an hour it reintroduces the cells to the patient. Because cells are so minimally manipulated and because the entire process is done onsite, in the room adjacent to the patient, it likely qualifies under the FDA exemption that allows physicians to treat patients at their discretion as a “practice of medicine” issue.

Plastic surgery centers around the world are discarding patients’ fat. But we would say that there is gold—your stem cells—in that fat. I know that Dr. Victor has treated more than 300 patients, and he’s had some amazing successes. These are not FDA-controlled trials. They’re not blinded. They’re not randomized. He is one of many clinicians finding ways to harvest stem cells and treat patients with them, with amazing results. But I want to be very clear: I’m not promoting the use of stem cells without clinical trials. Clinical trials are the only pathway for the industry to commercialize the value of this technology. That said, the evidence is building that our bodies possess the ability to heal with a little bit of coaxing from good science.

TLSR: I have one last question. What’s to stop an anesthesiologist or neurosurgeon or orthopedist who treats back pain from extracting a stromal vascular fraction and treating their patients? How is that going to affect Mesoblast and others who have gone the long route with the great expense of clinical trials?

JK: There is nothing to stop people from doing that. But the caveat is that once a product is approved and has a label, things change. Imagine that two patients are treated, one with the Mesoblast product and one with the do-it-yourselfer. Let’s say something goes wrong with the do-it-yourselfer, and that patient’s pain is not ameliorated. It gets worse, and a fusion is required. The patient calls a lawyer, and the lawyer sues the doctor. The lawyer asks the doctor why he used an “unapproved do-in-yourself” therapy versus the FDA-approved product. That’s not a position I would want to be in as a treating clinician.

Once there is an approved therapeutic project, the do-it-yourselfers tend to go away. Therefore, we don’t see these as a fundamental threat to companies like Mesoblast or Cytori Therapeutics Inc. (CYTX:NASDAQ) because once clinical trials are completed and the product is approved, clinicians will use it.

TLSR: As always, it’s a pleasure speaking with you.

JK: It’s a pleasure to talk with you. Thank you.

Jason Kolbert has worked extensively in the healthcare sector as product manager for a leading pharmaceutical company, a fund manager and as an equity analyst. Prior to joining Maxim Group, where he is managing director, Kolbert spent seven years at Susquehanna International Group, where he managed a healthcare fund and founded SIG’s biotechnology team. Previously, Kolbert served as the healthcare strategist for Salomon Smith Barney. He is often quoted in the media and is a sought-out expert in the biotechnology field Prior to beginning his Wall Street career, Kolbert served as a product manager for Schering-Plough in Osaka, Japan. He received a bachelor’s degree in chemistry from State University of New York, New Paltz, and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of New Haven.

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DISCLOSURE: 
1) George S. Mack conducted this interview for The Life Sciences Report and provides services to The Life Sciences Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Life Sciences Report:Athersys Inc., NeoStem Inc., BioRestorative Therapies Inc. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment. 
3) Jason Kolbert: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: NeoStem Inc. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview. 
4) The following companies are investment banking clients of Maxim Group: Athersys Inc., Cytori Therapeutics Inc. Maxim Group or its affiliates have received compensation from the following companies in the past 12 months: Mesoblast Ltd., Athersys Inc., Pluristem Therapeutics Inc., Cytori Therapeutics Inc.
5) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent. 
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Yield Differential Still Seems in Charge of Euro versus US dollar

Quotable: 

“All sentiment is right; because sentiment has a reference to nothing beyond itself, and is always real, wherever a man is conscious of it. But all determinations of the understanding are not right; because they have a reference to something beyond themselves, to wit, real matter of fact; and are not always conformable to that standard.” 

                                                                                                                        David Hume

 

Commentary & Analysis

Yield Differential Still Seems in Charge of Euro versus US dollar

To show a market correlation is to show a market correlation. That is about it. The reason I say that is because we can never really be sure which of the pieces of price data in the correlation is leading and which is following. And to go further, even if we did know which was leading we then run into the problem of then “forecasting” where the lead piece of price data is going in order to help “forecast” where the follower is going. Thus, I think correlation analysis is useful, but it must be handled with caution.

In that vein, you have probably heard plenty of people trying to forecast currency prices using a forecast of interest rates. I have been guilty of implying the same in my missives. But in reality, it’s a mug’s game to predict currency action by trying to forecast interest rates. Because as John Percival, of Currency Bulletin said many years ago, and I am paraphrasing: If we can forecast interest rates then why bother with currencies; just buy a seat on the Chicago Board of Trade and retire very wealthy. Wise advice as always from Mr. Percival…

Mr. Percival did go on to say that there is meat when it comes to interest rates, and it flows from the yield and inflation differentials. He said these differentials “seem to be the basic fundamentals of currency analysis.” Change is what moves prices, and “in currencies, changes in real yield differentials are a basic value benchmark.”

So, in that vein, below is a chart of the US versus Eurozone 2-year Benchmark Yield Differential. As you can see, the US dollar index has been tracking closely on the yield differential i.e. as the spread moves higher in favor of the US, the dollar index rises, and vice versa. 

Screen Shot 2013-07-25 at 10.04.10 AM

This differential analysis could become increasingly important now that we finally seem to have exited the pure and mind-numbing “risk on” and “risk off” world of investing.

So, I think it is fair to expect (guess) that US economic growth is most likely to be faster than Eurozone growth in the months ahead. If that proves true, then it’s likely the 2-year yield differential will continue to grow in favor of the US dollar. And it’s a key rationale for why I expect the move higher in EUR/USD over the last 10 trading days is “corrective” in nature and the longer term downtrend will reassert itself soon.

But, surprise is what moves people to move prices. And just because careful consideration goes into a guess about the future, doesn’t make it so. Spain reported today the country’s unemployment level fell for the first time in two years. So, we can never say “never,” and that’s why we trade using stops (mental or otherwise).

If you wish to learn more about our forex service, please click here.
[Correction: In yesterday’s Currency Currents I said I expected bond prices to “go lower” in the months

ahead. I meant to say bond prices to “go higher.” Sorry for the error.] Thank you.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

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Why are the Gold, Silver Prices Rising?

Fall in the Prices of Gold & Silver

Gold and silver recently hit their lows –$1,180 for gold and $18.50 for silver—after being hit by tremendous persistent selling from the SPDR gold ETF and then a major, well-engineered bear raid from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase alongside several hedge funds. This entailed the selling of over 1,000 tonnes of physical gold in less than three months. The bear-raid in mid-April involved around 500 tonnes of this. In a market where the net supply is just over 10 tonnes a day, this wave of selling overwhelmed demand, initially and caused the precipitous fall in gold and silver prices.

The falls were attributed to all sorts of factors such as lower growth in China, the U.S. and the rise in interest rates, the potentially better returns in equity markets, etc. With the holders of gold in the SPDR gold ETF mainly U.S. institutions, measured, sad to say, on their short-term performance, the demands to move away from gold (which had stagnated for around 18 months) to equities caused the SPDR selling of around 500 tonnes over the last three months.

But the precipitous fall in mid-April was due to the bear-raid by the banks and hedge funds. They saw gold’s lackluster performance, the steady sales of the shares of the SPDR gold ETF and saw the opportunity. Their motive was simple: profits for the bank and their customers in line with their expressed purpose. We estimate that with the 400 tonnes of short positions on COMEX they raked in around $6 billion in profits at least.

Consequences

  • We know that Goldman Sachs sold off half their warehoused gold in the process as did COMEX both total gold and registered gold, which now stands at 43% of the holding at the beginning of the year.
  • We know that the remaining stocks are most likely not available for a similar bear-raid as such a raid would leave the warehouses empty and vulnerable to a default. It is with little surprise that we hear that Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase are trying to sell their gold warehouses. The reasons given are that (Goldman’s warehouse company, Metro International LLC, was bought just three years after the investment bank bought the firm for $550 million) a proposed rule change by the London Metal Exchange (LME) to relieve bottlenecks that slow metal delivery out of warehouses could cut into profits for the metal warehouse industry. We expect the Senate committee investigating such operations may have also provided the needed incentive for such a sale?
  • We know that the gold holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are down from close to 1,600 tonnes to just over 900 tonnes in the last three months, implying that the long-term holders of these shares remain holders, but short-term performing institutions have sold their holdings. Hence the volumes now available to sell for short-term considerations have now almost gone.
  • Total up the above amounts and we see that the bulk of ‘trading gold’ in the U.S. has now been sold off. The only way these can be recovered is if U.S. investors came in as buyers of physical gold.
  • We know that despite this huge volume of over 1,000 tonnes sold out of the U.S., Asian and other buyers have absorbed these amounts easily and continue to look for more.
  • Thus future U.S. gold investors will have to pay a much higher price to get such volumes back.
  • Because the gold price is so low, gold mining companies have to reduce their production and move to higher grades where they can, to retain what’s left of their profitability. New projects are being shelved unless they are of sufficiently high a grade to be profitable at these prices.
  • Please note that when ‘cash costs’ are quoted as being needed to continue to keep mining at these prices, they exclude capital expenditure and a return for shareholders. With these in mind, we quote the CEO of Goldfields, in South Africa, as saying that the gold mining industry is not sustainable at prices below $1,500. To continue mining at levels seen before the gold price fell, a higher price is needed to warrant lowering the grades to boost production. Hence newly-mined volumes of gold have dropped with these lower gold prices.
  • The source of 35% of gold supply has been from “scrap” or recycled gold. This comes primarily from sales from Asian investors passing their gold to family members and from the recycling of gold jewelry in the developed world. This latter type is expensive to recover because it is usually 9 or 18 carat gold whereas Asian gold is close to pure 24 carat gold. As a result, these lower prices have taken the incentive to sell such gold away, leaving such supplies evaporating. The result to the total gold supply as estimated by the World Gold Council will be a +400 tonne drop in scrap supplies to 1,200 tonnes of the +3,300 tonnes total supply (down from 4,000 tonnes) we will see over the next year. Such a drop in supplies is more than sufficient to cause the gold price to rise on thin volumes. This will happen irrespective of the consequences of any enquiry into the U.S. bank’s behaviour in the gold market and the dangers of default in those markets.

In summary, the enormous fall in available gold supplies has brought the gold market to a point where the shortage of physical supplies, globally, may well prove inadequate to satisfy the demand we are seeing from Asia in the days, weeks and even years to come, unless the gold price moves high enough to bring back scrap sales and greater newly-mined gold production.

Where Now?

The above clearly implies that the gold price should recover to levels from whence it came; however, the loss of U.S. gold holdings removed a potential source of supply at any price level. This alone implies more than just a recovery. It exacerbates the supply shortage considerably. We keep referring to the U.S. as sellers because all the other World Gold Council gold ETFs have remained at constant levels during the last three months, while the U.S.-based SPDR gold ETF has been the main supplier of gold to the market. Should their sales continue in the future, it is clear that, at best, they will simply slow the rise in the gold price!

It is apparent that there now exists an opportunity to hit the gold market with a ‘short squeeze’ by buying physical gold in large amounts to precipitate a quick price rise, particularly because any opposing supplier has already exited the market.

While the major mining companies could well ‘recover’ their share prices, the main beneficiary among the gold miners will be the solid well-managed, well-financed, Junior sector of the gold and silver markets. (See www.GoldForecaster.com &www.SilverForecaster.com list of such mining companies by subscribing.)

Silver

While no such collapse of silver holdings in silver ETFs in the States has taken place, nor was there any bear-raid on the silver price taken place, silver has continued to move with the gold price all the way down and is doing so all the way up. This relationship has been so for many years now, with silver tending to fall further and faster than gold and rising further and faster than gold on the way up. Consequently, this relationship has weathered a major storm. In the future, expect to see silver keep this relationship. So what will happen to gold will happen to silver.

Future of Gold & Silver

All gold investors and institutions are told on a daily basis that the gold price reacts to U.S. economic news. A nuance in the speech of Bernanke has attributed to it a $10 move in the gold price and equivalent in the silver price. While the U.S. is the globe’s most important, wealthy economy and the dollar the global reserve currency the U.S. accounts for less than 10% of the world’s physical demand for gold. With the sell-off of such a large amount of privately held gold in the U.S. in the last three months, it is clear that the influence of the U.S. over the gold price has fallen away considerably lately.

COMEX

Many will retort that the huge volume of derivatives in the gold market, particularly on COMEX, counters that statement. To scotch that belief, we describe a typical hedging operation for which COMEX was designed.

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A jeweller decides to order one tonne of gold for delivery in September so he can manufacture jewelry for the festive season at year’s end.  This immediately puts him at risk for the period from the time he orders the metal to the time he pays for it, plus the time he takes to manufacture, then sell the jewelry. His business is to make money from the work he puts into the manufacture of the jewelry. He may mark up the price of the gold he uses by a multiple of three times, to reimburse him for his skill and artistry; however, he doesn’t want to speculate on the price of the gold he owns, so he gets rid of that risk by hedging the tonne of gold he uses. So at the time he buys the gold, he sells it on COMEX by selling it ‘forward’ to the time he himself gets paid at the end of the year.

He now has two positions, which match. But if we go back to April’s end we see that the price of gold fell by $200, so while he appears to have lost on his ‘physical position’ he has gained on the sale in the futures/options market by $200. You would think that would be the end of it, but no, usually he takes a view on the gold price at that point and would leave his original long position un-hedged

So he now has a $200 profit on his COMEX position and remains exposed to his ‘natural’ long physical position again.

Then the gold price recovers to the price he originally paid for the gold. It now pays him to sell one tonne again removing the price risk once more. He now has $200 in hand and a closed position hedged once more by a short position on COMEX and no price risk. It is as though he bought his gold at the ‘bottom’ raising his profits when he eventually sells the jewelry at year’s end.

In summary, he has handled one tonne of physical gold and two tonnes of ‘financial gold’ in the paper market. This has been a simplified exercise, but often the Commercials trade such a ‘natural’ position up to 50 times or more using the same original physical gold. A professional trader will do such an exercise many more tomes. If he can harness high speed trading he can multiply that number many, many times creating what seems to be huge positions in gold both long and short. But because they are set against each other the net position is actually tiny, because the vast majority of trades result in no physical movement of gold at all. So rare is the requirement to move physical gold that COMEX requires any trader/speculator to notify them and the counterparty in writing if they intend to take delivery of physical gold.

Such transactions, unsurprisingly, account for less than 5% of all COMEX’ transactions.

The conclusion is that all financial transactions in gold shares and 95% of COMEX transactions involve the buying of zero physical gold whatsoever. These ‘gold’ transactions are actually, ‘full of sound and fury, signifying nothing’ to the gold price.

Asia

By contrast Asian transactions in gold involve not short of 100% physical gold. Hence Asia accounts for around 70% – 80% of the world’s physical gold today.

With the growth and enrichment of Asians over time this percentage is bound to grow.

New World for Gold

Add to this the change in the global monetary system from a dollar hegemony to a multi-currency system with all its uncertainties and the continuing desire on the part of emerging nation’s central banks to increase their gold holdings, and you have a very different gold market in the years ahead, to the one we have seen in the last three months!

Hold your gold in such a way that governments and banks can’t seize it!

Enquire @ admin@StockbridgeMgMt.com

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Legal Notice / Disclaimer

This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.  Gold Forecaster – Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold Forecaster – Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold Forecaster – Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina only and are subject to change without notice. Gold Forecaster – Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina assume no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, we assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information, provided within this Report.

— Posted Thursday, 25 July 2013

Has the Chinese Economy Hit the Great Wall?

Screen Shot 2013-07-25 at 8.24.24 AMThe lazy days of summer trading continue. The Dow barely moved yesterday. Gold fell $15 an ounce – to be expected after the recent big move up.

We left Vancouver, where we were giving a speech at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium, only a few hours after getting there. On the airplane to Beijing we puzzled about time and place – trying to work out the movements of the Earth, the sun and the airplane.

The flight took 10 hours. From our fuzzy memory of the globe, China should be almost on the exact opposite side of the world from the US. So you would head north from Canada to go to China.

But the plane didn’t seem to be going north. It was going west… or northwest. Looking out the starboard window after midnight, we saw the warm glow of the sun over the Arctic.

At least, that’s what we thought we were looking at. But then the light failed. We must have been going away from the east… so we must have been going west.

But why?

You don’t mind if we take a moment work out these important celestial movements, do you, dear reader?

If you fly from one point to another you have to take into account that the place to which you are going does not stay put while you are going there.

There are 24 time zones on the Earth. A 10-hour flight gives the planet time to complete about 40% of a revolution. This means, obviously, your target airport must rotate through 10 time zones… or about 10,000 miles if it is on the equator… toward the east while you are in the air.

The airplane must, therefore, aim not for the place you are going but for the place it will be when you get there, a place far to the east of where it was when you left.

We’re not sure this has any importance to anyone other than pilots, but we found it interesting. And the same phenomenon happens in football and quarterbacking. You aim in front of your moving target.

Big Trouble in China

There is a parallel phenomenon in investing. You don’t really care what the price of gold is today; it’s what the price will be in six months… or six years… that matters.

Revolution is a fact of life. The planet revolves. The markets revolve round and round too.

So do economies…

We’re in China today. Want to know what is going on China? We don’t know but a lot of people think they do. Here’s Paul Krugman in the New York Times:

The signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We’re not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country’s whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.

And here’s Ben Levisohn in Barron’s:

Unlike three months ago, when investors were placing big bets that China’s policymakers would pump cash into the economy to spur growth, the markets seem to have accepted the fact that sluggish growth for the world’s second largest economy is its new normal.

Where will China be in six months… or six years?

It is impossible to know. Goldman Sachs slashed its estimates for China’s growth. But it has no better idea than Paul Krugman or anyone else. The Chinese could surprise us in either direction. The economy could fare worse than expected… or better.

But one thing does appear to be happening. After 20 years of spectacular growth, China is looking for a new way forward.

“It’s not enough just to open a factory in Shenzhen and make things for export,” explained a Chinese colleague. “The days of the entrepreneur who grew up under communism and then went on to become a billionaire are over.

“That was the first stage of China’s development. It was the entrepreneurs’ phase. And it happened right after Deng Xiaoping opened the economy up. Entrepreneurs took advantage of the opportunity, using low wages to make things for the developed countries.

“China’s wages are still low compared with the US or Europe. But they’re not low enough. And the developed countries are no longer looking to outsource their manufacturing to China anyway.

“The next phase will be different. No one knows what it will be. But it will be different. And yes there could be a revolution in China… but I doubt it. People are pretty happy with the last 20 years. They expect the next 20 will be good too.”

Regards,

Bill Bonner

Bill

Bombs Going Off One Level Down

It’s been a strange couple of weeks. US stocks are not far from all-time records, both nominally and adjusted for inflation. Home prices are soaring – up 33% y-o-y in the Bay Area, to take just one of many possible examples. A casual observer might assume that things are going great.

But one level down on the headline ladder it’s a very different story. The list of ominous events and trends has suddenly grown a lot longer. Among the bombs that went off last week:

reliques 01Detroit declares bankruptcy
For years, analysts have been looking at the balance sheets and pension funds of dysfunctional entities like California, Illinois, Chicago, Detroit, and Oakland and wondering how much longer they could con the markets into believing that they were in any way capable of paying off their debts or making good on their pension obligations. Last week the first domino fell, as Detroit declared chapter 9 bankruptcy. The legal wrangling has just begun but initial bargaining positions have the city trying to eviscerate pension benefits and force massive haircuts on muni bond holders. If they succeed even partially, then the hundred or so other functionally-bankrupt cities may see this as the path of least resistance. The result: Turmoil in the muni market, which is generally considered a near-risk-free cash equivalent. See Avalanche of city debt downgrades and eventual bankruptcies coming up.

Corporate revenue growth stalls
Google and Microsoft both reported disappoinging revenue growth and their stocks tanked. Revenue is harder to fake than earnings, so it’s a more reliable indicator of big trends. Tech bellwethers reporting weak revenues implies that the economy is itself weaker than we’ve been led to believe. And corporate profits, which have provided much of the fuel for rising equity prices, can’t keep rising if revenues plateau. See The party may be over for tech stocks and Earnings season starting to look like a disaster. 

Portugal and Spain descend into chaos
Both countries are finding it impossible to cope with life in a relatively-strong-currency regime. Unemployment is at capital “D” depression levels, home prices are plunging, voters are restless. Portugal’s government can’t pull together a working coalition, and the most popular party opposes the continuance of austerity. But the alternative to austerity is an exit from the eurozone. See Portugal political crisis: no end in sight. 

Spain’s leaders, meanwhile, seem to have reacted to the economic crisis by trying to steal as much as possible while they could get away with it. Apparently they went to the well a few too many times and now the resulting scandal has reached all the way to the top. With much of the existing government implicated – but still in power – it’s not clear who will be left to do whatever it is that should be done about the economy. See Spain: scandals, lies, graft, and kickbacks

There’s more, including massive, insanely ill-timed layoffs in Greece and the IMF calling China’s policies “unsustainable”. But all of it points to slowing – and maybe negative — growth in the US in the coming year, which would make stock and real estate bubbles seem, in retrospect, a bit out of place.

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