Timing & trends

My 2014 predictions – On Wall Street & Other Things

Posted by John Crudele NY Post via Peter Grandich

on Tuesday, 31 December 2013 19:06

wallstreet3There’s a saying in Hollywood that “nobody knows anything.” That was famed screenwriter William Goldman ’s way of admitting that neither he nor anyone else knew what makes a movie successful.

You should keep that saying in mind when you read 2014 predictions from Wall Street gurus. Nobody on Wall Street knows anything either. But they make money trying to convince you that they do.

I’ve got some thoughts of my own for this coming year — and a couple of them (OK, maybe just one) may even turn out to be correct. So, let me get to them.

….continue reading HERE

The Majority of Analysis is Bearish in the Metals

Posted by Martin armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 31 December 2013 15:52

GoldSilverKilos

The analysis is now turning excessively bearish in the metals. They still have to press lower and as one reader commented “puke their guts” ok. Only then will see a reversal of fortune. It is just not time for the metals. They had their run, now they must regroup and get ready for the next run.

Ed Note: Article link above worth reading, and also scan Martin’s Blog HERE

The Canadian economy showed unexpected strength in October, growing for the fourth month in a row and boosting market hopes that the country might finally be shaking off the worst of the great recession.

Statistics Canada said on Monday the economy had grown by 0.3 percent from September. Analysts had forecast a 0.2 percent advance after September’s 0.3 percent increase.

Although Canada regained most of the jobs it lost since 2008 and 2009, growth has been largely sluggish, prompting the Bank of Canada to make clear it will not raise its key interest rate until it sees signs of a firm recovery.

The economy has posted growth every month this year apart from June.

The output of goods-producing industries grew by 0.4 percent in October on higher manufacturing while service industries output climbed by 0.3 percent as almost all major industrial sectors registered growth.

“Canada’s economy is showing sustained strength for the first time since the early days of the recovery,” said BMO Capital Markets economist Sal Guatieri.

The Bank of Canada has said annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be 2.3 percent, down from 2.7 percent in the third. Guatieri, though, said October’s data suggested fourth quarter growth could be around 2.6 percent.

“Importantly, this would mark the first quarter since early 2011 that GDP has posted successive increases above two percent – that is, above potential,” he said in a note to clients.  ….read page 2 HERE

Gold held steady in thin year-end trade on Tuesday, on course for its biggest annual decline in 32 years as prospects for global economic recovery prompted investors to switch to riskier assets.

After a 12-year bull run gold has shed around 28 percent in 2013, with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to step away from ultra-loose monetary policy undermining the investor case for holding bullion.

Years of accommodative monetary policies had propelled the price of gold to all-time highs of $1,920.30 an ounce in September 2011, as low interest rates encouraged investors to put money into non-interest-bearing assets.

“As soon as short-term interest rates start rising then you can’t afford to invest in something that doesn’t pay yield like gold – it’s going to be equities and … money market funds will also seem more attractive,” Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet said.

“In that sort of environment (of higher rates) the key is the yield and also the credit risk, which is substantially lower right now, and not really working in favor of gold demand.”

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,197.66 an ounce at 1307 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery fell 0.6 percent to $1,197.40 an ounce.

In wider markets, world stocks were ending 2013 close to six-year peaks and benchmark bond yields were poised for their first annual rise since 2009 as investors celebrated a pick-up in global growth with expectations of more to come. <MKTS/GLOB>

The dollar .DXY was on track to end 2013 modestly higher against a basket of maincurrencies.

Gold was also set to post hefty annual losses in other currencies, with prices in euros down 31 percent on the year, the first fall since 2004. Prices fell 30 percent in Swiss francs and 29 percent in British pounds.

FUND LIQUIDATION

A drop in exchange-traded fund holdings showed investors had lost faith in bullion as a hedge against inflation and an alternative investment after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced plans to trim its monthly bond purchases.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.37 percent to 798.22 tons on Monday, their lowest since January 2009. <GOL/ETF>

In Singapore, premiums for gold bars were unchanged at $1.50 an ounce to spot London prices, while in Hong Kong, offers stood at between $1.50 and a high of $2.00 as some suppliers were running out of stocks.

In other precious metals, silver fell 1 percent to $19.37 an ounce. Silver is down 36 percent this year in its worst annual performance since at least 1982, making it the worst-performing precious metal in 2013.

Spot platinum was up 0.1 percent at $1,355.99 an ounce and on course to post a 12 percent annual loss. Best-performing palladium rose 0.3 percent to $708.25 an ounce and is set to end the year up nearly 1 percent.

(Additional reporting by Lewa Pardomuan in Singapore; Editing by Jason Neely and Dale Hudson)

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in October from a year ago by the most in more than seven years, signaling the real-estate rebound will keep bolstering household wealth in 2014.

The S&P/Case-Shillerindex of property prices in 20 cities climbed 13.6 percent from October 2012, the biggest 12-month gain since February 2006, after a 13.3 percent increase in the year ended in September, a report from the group showed today inNew York. The median projection of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 13.5 percent advance.

A dwindling inventory of foreclosed properties has helped restrict the supply of homes for sale, pushing up prices even as higher mortgage rate cool demand. The real-estate market will probably get its next boost from gains in employment that are lifting consumer confidence in the economic expansion.

….read more HERE

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