Gold & Precious Metals

Eric Sprott: “You have to be a buyer when people are non-believers”

Posted by Eric Sprott via Mark Leibovit

on Thursday, 2 January 2014 14:57

When asked of the investment philosophy which resulted in him becoming a billionaire, Eric explained that:

“You have to be a buyer when people are non-believers. You have to believe in something based on data that says you’re right when the world will tell you you’re wrong, because when the world says you’re wrong and you’re right, you know that the return will be outsized because no one is there. It’s like buying gold stocks in 2000 which I did to a very large extent. The HUI index was at 35 and it went to over 600. It went up 1700% in eight years. And that’s because everyone was against it. It was like a killing field for an investor to go in and I really believe it’s kind of [a similar] opportunity again today.”

sc

 

Ed Note: This quotation came via Mark Leibovit and his LEIBOVIT VR GOLD LETTER – JANUARY 2, 2014

We are Very Close to the Time of Truth

Posted by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden - The Aden Forecast

on Wednesday, 1 January 2014 21:07

OPTIMIST OR PESSIMIST?…Gold is telling a story

 

Gold’s been frustrating, to say the least. Plus, its characteristics changed in September.

WEAK SIGNS

Gold failed to rise during its best seasonal time, and when the dollar was declining. These factors alone were bearish signs.

In addition, gold jewelry demand was the highest since 2010 in the third quarter, when buyers in Hong Kong and China pushed demand up 40% and 35%.

It’s also reported that American Eagle silver coin sales are up at the U.S. Mint, while gold sales are up at the Perth Mint.

You’d think the prices would be up on this robust demand for physical gold and silver, but they’re not.

FIRST BAD YEAR SINCE 2000

Investors are loving to hate gold. Hedge funds are the least bullish since 2007. Some investors missed the whole bull market and are now happy to see gold tossed aside.

With each passing month, the bearish barometer continues to rise.  But amazingly, gold is not breaking below the June lows easily.

It’s been six months now since gold hit $1180 intraday in June.  And it’s recently been testing these lows.

Will it hold? …. That’s the million dollar question.  

AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE

First of all, if the $1180 low is broken, then the intermediate phases will have clearly turned bearish on Chart 1, which shows one of our favorite indicators.

12-31ar

We call the June 2013 low, a D low.  This is when gold falls the worst during a bull or bear market.  An A rise and B decline then follow.

The latest A rise was fine when gold rose to its late August high near $1420, gaining about 18%.  This was normal.

The B decline has been underway since then.  This 16% decline has lasted over three months and it’s a bigger B decline than normal, but it’s still okay.

But, if gold now stays below $1330 and falls below $1180, this B decline is off, and the bear will clearly take over.  We could then see $1000 gold, eventually.

So we are very close to the time of truth.

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com

Aden_Forecast Archive

A Chinese manufacturing gauge slipped to a four-month low in December, underscoring challenges for President Xi Jinping as he tries to sustain economic momentum while rolling out reforms.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 51, the National Bureau of Statistics and China’s logistics federation said yesterday in Beijing. That was less than the median 51.2 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 29 economists and November’s 51.4. A separate manufacturing index is due to be released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

Chart of the Day

Posted by Chart of the Day

on Wednesday, 1 January 2014 18:44

For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today’s chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by several major international stock market indices. For example, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 676.53 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the S&P 500 is 1,848.36 — it has retraced 131.9% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today’s chart illustrates, China (Shanghai Composite), Japan (Nikkei 225), India (S&P BSE Sensex), Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40) and the UK (FTSE 100) are all above their financial crisis lows (i.e. above 0% on today’s chart) and three of the aforementioned countries (Germany, India and the UK) are currently trading above their respective pre-financial crisis peak (i.e. are above 100% on today’s chart). It is interesting to note that the US (epicenter of the financial crisis) has outperformed the other major stock market indices (* keep in mind that the German DAX is unique in that it includes for the reinvestment of dividends) while China has lagged to the point where it only trades 9.3% above its financial crisis lows — not that impressive of a performance considering that the financial crisis occurred well over four years ago.

Notes:
Where should you invest? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

20140101

Quote of the Day
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.” – Aldous Huxley

Events of the Day
January 01, 2014 – New Year’s Day – Rose Bowl – Fiesta Bowl
January 02, 2014 – Sugar Bowl
January 03, 2014 – Orange Bowl
January 06, 2014 – BCS Championship Game
January 12, 2014 – Golden Globe Awards
January 13, 2014 – Australian Open Tennis Tournament begins (ends Jan. 26th)

Stocks of the Day
— Find out which stocks investors are focused on with the most active stocks today.
— Which stocks are making big money? Find out with the biggest stock gainers today.
— What are the largest companies? Find out with the largest companies by market cap.
— Which stocks are the biggest dividend payers? Find out with the highest dividend paying stocks.
— You can also quickly review the performance, dividend yield and market capitalization for each of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Companies as well as for each of the S&P 500 Companies.

Mailing List Info
Chart of the Day is FREE to anyone who subscribes HERE

 

Why Emerging Markets will Finally Soar in 2014

Posted by Nicola Vardy - Global Investor

on Wednesday, 1 January 2014 17:28

shutterstock 158515916It has been a terrific year for U.S. stocks.

If the Santa Claus rally kicks in, and the S&P 500 ends the year above 1,834, the year 2013 will end as the best one for the market since 1998.

In contrast, it has been all doom and gloom for emerging markets.

Even as the U.S. market has put the permabears in investors’ doghouses, emerging markets are likely to finish the year down 6%, compared with a (so far) 27% gain for U.S. markets and 19% for the rest of the developed world.

Having lagged the S&P 500 for over two years, emerging markets are coming off of their longest underperformance in recent memory.

….read & view more HERE

test-php-789