Bonds & Interest Rates
In the 1960s every new $1 in debt bought nearly $1 in GDP growth. In the 70s it began to fall as the debt climbed. By the time we hit the ‘80s and ‘90s, each new $1 in debt bought only $0.30-$0.50 in GDP growth. And today, each new $1 in debt buys only $0.10 in GDP growthat best.
Put another way, the growth of the last three decades, but especially of the last 5-10 years, has been driven by a greater and greater amount of debt. This is why the Fed has been so concerned about interest rates.
You can see this in the chart below. It shows the total credit market outstanding divided by GDP. As you can see starting in the early ‘80s, the amount of debt (credit) in the system has soared. We’ve only experienced one brief period of deleveraging, which came during the 2007-2009 era.

Bernanke couldn’t stomach this kind of deleveraging. The reason is simple: those who have accumulated great wealth as a result of this system are highly incentivized to keep it going.
Bernanke doesn’t talk to you or me about these things. He calls Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan. And most of the Wall Street wealth of the last 30 years has been the result of leverage (credit growth). Take away credit and easy monetary policy and a lot of very “wealthy” people suddenly are not so wealthy.
Let me put this in terms of real job growth (created by startups) vs the “job growth” of the last five years.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, startups account for nearly all of the US’s net job creation (total job gains minus total job losses). And smaller startups have a very different perspective of debt than larger more established firms.
The reason is quite simple. When a small business owner takes out a loan he or she is usually posting personal assets as collateral (a home, car or some other item). As a result, the debt burden comes with the very real possibility of losing something of great value. And so debt is less likely to be incurred.
This stands in sharp contrast to a larger firm, which can post collateral owned by the business itself (not the owners’ personal assets) and so feels less threatened by leveraging up. Thus, in this manner, QE and other loose monetary policies maintained by the Fed favor those larger firms rather than the real drivers of job creation: smaller firms and startups.
For this reason, the Fed’s policies, no matter what rhetoric the Fed uses, are more in favor of the stock market than the real economy. That is to say, they are more in favor of those firms that can easily access the Fed’s near zero interest rate lending windows than those firms that are most likely to generate jobs: smaller firms and start-ups.
This is why job growth remains anemic while the stock market has rallied to new all-time highs. This is why large investors like Bill Gross have applauded the Fed’s policies at first (when the deleveraging was about to wipe him out in 2008), but then turned against them in the last few years as a political move. This is why QE is so dangerous, because it increases concentration of wealth and eviscerates the middle class.
Guys like Warren Buffett or Larry Ellison of Oracle can take advantage of low interest rates to leverage up, acquiring more assets (that can produce income) by posting their current assets as collateral (Ellison commonly “lends” shares in Oracle to banks in exchange for bank loans).
Cheap debt is useful to them because the marginal risk of taking it on is small relative to that of a normal individual investor who would have to post a needed asset (his or her home) as collateral on a loan to leverage up.
This system works as long as debt continues to stay cheap. However, in the last 12 months the Fed has definitively crossed the point of no return with its policies. It is not just a matter of timing before this debt bubble bursts.
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Best Regards
Phoenix Capital Research
Have you ever wondered if you need more milk, butter or chicken? Well, we are about to take a turn to the Jetson’s with LG‘s new Home Chat smart platform that allows you to ask your fridge what groceries its run out of – while you are at Safeway, Save_on or any other store.
LG has just announced a whole raft of new home appliances from washing machines to vacuums that respond to voice and text commands. But that’s not all that’s coming to the new home kitchen. Belkin has a new Crock-Pot WeMo Smart Slow Cooker, which can be controlled remotely via smartphone and will be available in March plus Kolibree has a new internet-connected toothbrush, which records your brushing habits through a smartphone. No longer will parents have to ask their kids if they’ve brushed.
It’s all part of the tech revolution that is gathering momentum.
For Investors Looking For Huge Growth Potential
I am thrilled to announce that one of Canada’s premier technology analysts and investors, Brent Holliday, CEO of Garibaldi Capital Advisors has accepted my invitation (maybe more accurately put as begging) to speak at the World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver on his rules for picking technology winners. (January 31st and February 1st)
While on a larger scale Brent is interested in what the same things that we are – namely finding some potential monster winners. Last year Brent may have done over $100 million in transactions but the rules of how to find companies with huge potential are the same.
Finally
I am unequivocal in stating that investors must get familiar with these areas. The World Outlook Financial Conference is your chance to not only hear renowned analysts like Martin Armstrong, Mark Lebovit, Peter Grandich and get Ryan Irvine‘s World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio, 2014. It is also an opportunity to get familiar with the most important investment opportunities of the next generation.
It is going to be incredibly thought provoking – and a lot of fun.
For more info go to www.moneytalks.net/outlook
Ben Bernanke, the retiring Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in the U.S., did his best to fight the notion that he was preconditioned to be “dovish.” This might have been an attempt to challenge the nickname of “Helicopter Ben” given to him after a speech in November 2002 where he suggested that if the U.S. faced deflation, the Fed could always resort to dropping money from helicopters.
To give him credit, Bernanke held back temptations to excessively expand the money supply at the beginning of his appointment. In fact, he was known for downplaying growing concerns rather than automatically responding by increasing liquidity. During this phase he famously said that the Subprime mortgage crisis was “contained, suggesting that we should worry about (Although the Fed’s inability to forecast the crisis was also a contributing factor to his initial reaction).
Finally, when the Global Credit Crisis and the Great Recession hit, Bernanke caved in and has never looked back, reaffirming the reasons as to why the name “Helicopter Ben” fit him so well.
Just as Bernanke was given some benefit of the doubt, Janet Yellen is getting some similar treatment from many investors in the market. Honeymoons tend to be like that. However, when people face pressure, they mostly revert back to old habits and beliefs.
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The Canadian Dollar reached lows we have not seen since November 2, 2009. We are now at 4 YEAR lows on Canadian Dollr vs the US Dollar.
This is a decline of over 2% this year, and we are only 9 days in. The decline from the highs in mid 2012 have been almost 13%. These are considerable moves considering we had $616 billion in trade with the US in 2012.
Drew Zimmerman
Investment & Commodities/Futures Advisor
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Editor’s Note: In recent weeks, Jay Nordlinger sat down with János Horváth, a distinguished Hungarian: a fighter against the Nazis, and a prisoner of them; a fighter against the Communists, and a prisoner of them; a leader of the 1956 revolution; an economist and free-marketeer; an exile in the United States for more than 40 years; now the oldest member of the Hungarian parliament, as he was the youngest after World War II. The preceding parts of this interview series are at the following links: I, II, and III. The series concludes today.
You will recall that we were talking about President Obama. I had asked Horváth about him — “What is he?” — and he replied, “I think he is a curious man trying to understand himself. I’m a man of good will, and I like to think that he, too, is a man of good will. But he is stumbling, and he is doing certain things in areas that he doesn’t know enough about.”
Then I ask Horváth, “Do you think he’s a victim, in a sense, of a left-wing education” (the kind of education many of us had)? I’m thinking of what he learned about economics. I’m also thinking of what he learned about the Middle East. Frankly, I’m thinking of what he learned about nearly everything.
Horváth says, “Yes, probably.” He goes on to say something playful, but serious. “When you’re a surgeon or a pilot, you have to be precise. You have to know what you’re doing. But the realm of law or politics is much different. In these fields, the performance indicators are looser,” to put it mildly. There is “a more roundabout complexity.”
He further says he can understand the happiness America felt when it elected a black president. He remembers the happiness people felt when they elected a Catholic president in 1960. And so it will be with a woman president, a Hispanic president, a Jewish president (maybe), an Asian president . . . “America feels she lives up to her own image in this process.”
Well, what does Horváth think of America’s new health law, “Obamacare”? He says that politics and economics are in conflict. Political needs or desires have won out over sound economics.
“There are several ways to do health care well,” he says. You can have private enterprise, which is best. Or you can have “the social medicine of Sweden or Canada.” Even this is better than what the U.S. currently has, says Horváth. He says we spend a great deal on health care and get outcomes not much better, if better at all, than those of countries that spend a lot less.
“A country that prides itself on economic success should not be doing this badly,” says Horváth. “If I were an American prophet, I would stand on every street corner and say, ‘We ought to spread ashes on our heads. We should be ashamed at what is happening to us.’ One could understand how it happened to the stupid Soviet Union. But for the U.S. to go bankrupt?”
Horváth hastens to say that the U.S. is not bankrupt. Still, we are in a terrible predicament.
I like to ask people who love America — foreigners who love America — “Tell us our faults. What’s wrong with America? I know you love the place, but friends can point out friends’ faults.”
Like everybody else (in my experience), Horváth hesitates. Then he says, “Americans should know better the assets they have. I’m not talking about petroleum or gold or whatever. I’m talking about institutions. In all of world history, the American institutional framework is the best that has ever been. Representative government. You can elect someone, reelect someone, and unelect someone. It is very rare in the world to unelect someone.
“This is being done in a humane, civilized fashion. We don’t go around hitting or kicking or murdering one another. The mechanism works.”
…..read page 2 HERE




